OBJETIVOS ESPECÍFICOS

M a r k J. Valencia

Liner shipping can be a catalyst of active industrialization and trade in the region. In the Pacific, liner-shipping tonnage is growing rapidly—by as much as 18.8 percent (excluding free registration) compared to 4.6 per- cent worldwide. The problem facing liner-shipping is tariff policies. The feasibility of establishing a subregional rate and liner shipping index re- quires investigation. The role of service contracts, currency adjustment fac- tors, and rate restorations also require analysis. Another area for cooperative research is the modeling of the international tramp-shipping market, its future, and the impact of accidental factors and operational decisions. Such models can determine if the upturn in freight rates will lead to a boom in shipbuilding and distort the market. The widespread use of such models can reduce uncertainty and increase the predictability of this market.

There is an obviously inadequate throughput capacity of available land transport communications—rail, motor, and sea—between China and the former Soviet Union. China is modernizing and integrating its rail, mo- tor, and waterway systems in its coastal areas. In a world of better rela- tions, perhaps China's merchant fleet and maritime ports could be used to ship Russian exports and imports. Chinese provinces that do not have outlets to the Sea of Japan could use Soviet ports.

Specific ideas include using Russian lighter-aboard ships for inland- river lighter transportation in China; using container-feeder ships from Hong Kong to Russian ports; using towed barges to transport timber and timber products from Russian ports to Chinese ports; increasing roll on— roll-off lines between Russian-Chinese lines; using bulk cargo coasters to ship goods to third countries; using Russian tankers for Chinese oil and oil products; using Russian-bulk cargo ships to move Chinese coal; using alternatives to marine transport for re-export of foreign cargo over Rus- sian and Chinese territories; using rail to transport national and re-export cargoes from China to Russia and back—via Grodekovo and the Khasan district to Primoyre, via Zabaikalsk to Eastern Siberia and the Far East, via Mongolia to Western and Eastern Siberia, and through Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region to Kazakhstan and Europe—increasing border mo- tor transportation; and using the navigable rivers of the Amur-Sungari basin for joint transportation, including the use of "river-to-sea" ships; and f i -

24 Mark J. Valencia

nally using a combination of Chinese maritime ports or Chinese and Rus- sian railways (especially after their joining in southern Kazakhstan) to reach the shortest Europe-Asia container route.

International tourism development is another possible area for cooper- ation between the Russian Far East and the Asia-Pacific region. Primorye has unique natural and climatological conditions. Involvement of foreign tourist firms is the most effective way to develop tourism in the region. Zones for international tourism operating under free-economic-zone legis- lation could be established in Primorye. Traditional medical centers for treatment for tourists-patients by experienced specialists could be an at- traction that would overcome the shortage of modern hotels. Refurbished ships could be used as floating tourist centers, moving along the coast from site to site. Cruise liners could move from "summer" (south) to "winter" (north). Port calls could begin in Japan and South Korea and move to Rus- sia bringing tourists to ski, skate, and absorb winter scenery.

The fishing industry is another possible area of cooperation. In this field, Russia has intergovernmental, interdepartment, and private-level re- lations with Japanese, North Korean, and South Korean organizations and firms. Such cooperation includes licenses, repair of Russian ships in for- eign wharves, and transport of marine products and technical equipment to the Russian Far East. Existing joint-fishing and processing ventures fo- cus on herring and pollock. A salmon-propagation project is also operat- ing in the region.

But the Russian fishing industry remains underdeveloped. Such un- derdevelopment delays technical re-equipment of the fishing industry and accumulation of progressive foreign experience in management, and is an obstacle to better quality output and improvement of fish products and their sale on domestic and external markets. New forms of joint ventures are needed to exploit resources in the 200-mile fishing zone and coastal areas of Russia's Far East.

The main industries of the Far East are marine transport, fishing, ma- rine construction, ship repair, and ship building. Problems include a poor basic infrastructure, lack of labor, and a poorly developed service sector. There are many other factors that hinder the development of marine in- dustries, such as low levels of technology, an aging fleet, a poor dispatch service for port berthing, a low level of mechanization and automation in loading, unloading, fish processing, and ship repairing, and a shortage of mooring lines. Joint ventures with foreign firms are expected to help solve these problems. Such joint ventures would be sited in special eco- nomic zones like Nakhodka and Vostochny. Principal activities might in- clude processing of fish, timber, and mineral resources; repair of ocean equipment; and development of scientific products and import substitutes. The joint-venture zone in Posiet is envisaged as a large international resort

Possibilities and Questions for Research 25

and recreation center with ecologically "clean" industries such as aqua- culture and mariculture, food manufacture, and biotechnology.

Cooperative studies are needed to determine appropriate policies and legislation and the most feasible and mutually beneficial joint ventures. Other priority spheres for cooperative academic analysis should include the present state of principal commodity markets and their export poten- tial; the role of export-oriented industries in bilateral relations; and the stipulation of measures for development of industries.