Objetivos específicos

University commercialization activities usually involve novel technologies that are highly uncertain and the industries which they are evolving in are character-ized by a volatile and a rapidly changing environment. Further the technologies are research intensive and exposed to uncertainty regarding their successful de-velopment and functionality. On the other hand these technologies have to be absorbed by volatile markets in order to be commercialized. These different forms of uncertainty are of primary importance for decision makers but have not been thoroughly studied in previous research on technology commercializa-tion and put under one theoretical framework. The main focus of this thesis was to comprehend the recently growing trend among universities and public re-search organizations to commercialize their rere-search activities from an empirical and theoretical perspective. More particularly we have analysed the life cycle of two main commercialization streams namely the entry and exit of university spinouts, which are companies that evolve from intellectual property developed within academic institutions as well as the licensing and licensing termination of inventions. Our main focus of analysis therefore analyses market and techno-logical uncertainty and explains the conditions under which spinout formation, spinout failure, licensing and licensing failure occur by embracing real option theory.

The first part of this thesis analyses thoroughly the existing research streams on the phenomenon of university spinouts from the empirical and theoretical point of view and provides a detailed and structured literature review on this topic by organising the studies under three broad headings (macro- meso- and micro-level studies). Although previous research on spinouts has been mainly accumu-lative and atheoretical, we show that recently a positive trend towards theory-driven studies is evolving (increasing from 5% to 49% in the past four years) and that the research on this topic is maturing. Further we expect future stud-ies to focus more on analysing performance and to untangle if and where differ-ences exist between spinouts and independent new technology based companies.

We claim that the complexity of the spinout phenomenon due to the different parties, relationships and processes involved makes it an ideal context for test-ing and extendtest-ing theory and that there is plenty of scope for further work to untangle and understand these processes thoroughly. Finally we conclude with several research questions that are of strong interest for future theoretical devel-opment and propose that the key for future work is to ask the most interesting and practical phenomenon-specific questions but then tackle them with the most theoretical explanations.

The next chapter continues with a detailed overview of the patenting process and patent analysis as well as an introduction of the unique dataset used in this study which contains information on invention disclosures, license agreements and spinouts from the top German public research organization (Max Planck Society) and its 78 research institutes. The contribution of this thesis purely from the data perspective is that it is the first known study to utilize a detailed

non American research institution dataset on licensing and spinout activity. The contributions are straightforward since phenomena from prior research streams could be tested and verified and therefore their geographical limitations allevi-ated. One example finding that was confirmed was the significant influence of technology age on the spinout likelihood, which was used as a control variable in our models and was rigorously tested by Shane (2003).

In the following chapter real option theory was introduced and the justification presented why it is used as an umbrella theory in this thesis. Different theories used in the firm formation/ firm exit literature as well as licensing literature such as transaction cost theory and neoclassical investment theory were pre-sented and parallels and differences to the real option theory drawn. We found that the main difference compared to transaction cost theory is that TCE em-braces behavioural uncertainty rather than market and technological uncer-tainty when explaining the formation and failure of governance structures.

Compared to neoclassical investment theory it was shown that unlike the neo-classical investment theory, real option theory embraces uncertainty and gives value to investments with optional characteristics.

Chapter 5 specifically focuses on the effects of market and technological uncer-tainty on university spinout formation and spinout failure by using a Cox re-gression to model firm formation and firm failure. We found that market uncer-tainty is non monotonic in both, the firm formation as well as the firm failure model and influences them with same signs which is consistent with the predic-tions made by the real option theory. Further we have shown that technological uncertainty increases the likelihood that an invention will be commercialized through firm formation. It was previously discussed that the real option theory

does not make any assumptions about the risk preferences of the decision mak-ers i.e. entrepreneurs since it assumes rational decision makmak-ers’ behaviour. The results in this study show that the decision makers understand the complexity of risk as well as the exact timing when to act on opportunities in order to maximize their value in entry and exit decisions. This makes the real option theory in this context more parsimonious compared to entrepreneurial theories that make assumptions about risk preferences of entrepreneurs. Furthermore, the finding that inventions are more likely to be commercialized through the creation of new firms when the technologies are more uncertain extends the work of strategic management researchers (Tushman and Anderson, 1986) and researchers of technological change (Henderson, 1993). These have argued that new entrants are more likely than incumbents to commercialize radical tech-nologies. This study shows that technological uncertainty also influences the de-cisions of independent entrepreneurs to create new companies. While previous theorizing on real options suggested that technological uncertainty influences the likelihood and timing of an investment, this study is also the first to provide empirical evidence to support this measure in the context of firm formation and firm failure.

Further the study provides useful implications for the management of the proc-ess of spinout creation and support mechanisms to reduce spinout failure.

Knowledge of the circumstances under which inventions are more likely to be commercialized through the creation of new organizations and when they are more likely to fail may prove useful in determining university policies toward firm formation and mitigating firm failure. Especially capital availability has

that in more uncertain markets larger capital availability accentuates spinout formation. This finding could lead to an interesting avenue for future research by better understanding the success of spinouts created in highly uncertain and subsidized environments.

Chapter 6 focuses on the second possible commercialization lifecycle, namely how market and technological uncertainty affect the licensing and licensing ter-mination of an invention. Using a dataset on licensing of public research organi-sation technologies, the objective of this chapter was to understand how manag-ers use and value real options. The main findings were that market uncertainty has a non monotonic effect on licensing and licensing termination. Although technological uncertainty was not found to be statistically significant in the pre-licensing phase, it was positively influencing the license termination decision.

Contributions to two streams of research are identified, namely the innovation and licensing literature as well as the real option literature. The empirical con-tribution to innovation literature on technology licensing is such that we identi-fied several mediating effects on uncertainty that affects the likelihood of licens-ing and licenslicens-ing termination. This becomes especially important for policy makers who are intending to design support mechanisms for the commercializa-tion of research on both institucommercializa-tional and governmental level. Examples include the mediating effects of technology transfer experience and partnered research efforts which mediate the effects technological uncertainty. Technologies that are uncertain are more likely to be terminated when technology transfer experi-ence is low. The question whether inexperiexperi-enced technology transfer officers are selling ‘hot potatoes’ could be an interesting avenue for future research. Further technologies that are more certain are more likely to be licensed when they were

developed in partnered research efforts which show the importance of partnering in research and thereby reducing uncertainty. This has a straightforward impli-cation for practise in that policy makers and technology transfer officers should support partnering efforts during the research lifecycle.

Further this research finds support for the theoretical underpinning of real op-tion literature in that it is the first to examine empirically the effects of endoge-nous and exogeendoge-nous forms of uncertainty on the licensing and licensing termina-tion likelihood. This empirical justificatermina-tion of real optermina-tion theory in new areas of research represents an important contribution to the literature as it gives evi-dence for the applicability of real option reasoning for a wide range of phenom-ena.

The results of this study also suggest that option value can be firm specific.

Firms that have a higher licensing experience and who are more familiar with the process of licensing and technology transfer are more likely to license an vention. This supports findings by Arora and Gambardella (1994) that their in-ternal knowledge base allows firms to be more confident about their decision making in uncertain environments and benefiting from their ‘absorptive capac-ity’.

The implications of this research make a clear contribution to the literature by being the first to empirically investigate different forms of uncertainty not only on the entrance of new high technology firms but also on spinout failure. Fur-ther it is the first to study the complete lifecycle of an invention and all its life paths by putting it under one theoretical framework.