According to the Encyclopedia Britannica (1969), “An almanac is a book or table containing a calendar of the days, weeks and months of the year, a register of ecclesiastical festivals and saint’s days and a record of various astronomical phenomena, often with weather prognostications and seasonal sugges- tions for the countrymen”. In India, the classical Hindu almanac is known as ‘Panchang’. It is a very important book published yearly, and is the basic book of the society giving calenderical information on daily basis and is extensively used by the people all over India. For astrologers, it is one of basic books for making astrological calculations, casting horoscopes, and for making predictions. For farmers, it is an astrological guide to start any farming activity. Hence, it is a fundamental book, which is referred to by a large section of the people in this country for various purposes. The word ‘Panchang’ has its roots in two Sanskrit words, viz., ‘panch’ and ‘ang’, which mean ‘five’ and ‘body part/limb’ respectively. These parts are: (1) Tithi or lunar day - there are a total of thirty tithes in a lunar month, fifteen in each fortnight; (2) Vara or week day - there are seven varas, namely, Ravivara (Sunday), Somavara (Monday), Mangalavara (Tuesday), Budhavara (Wednesday), Guruvara (Thursday), Shukravara (Friday), and Shanivara (Saturday); (3) Nakshatra or asterism or constellation - there are a total of twenty seven nakshtras named according to the yogataras or identifying stars of each of the twenty seven equal parts of the ecliptic or solar path; (4) Yoga or time during which the joint motion of the Sun and the Moon covers the space of a nakshatra (there are twenty-seven yoga) and (5) Karana or half of a lunar day or half-tithi.
(a) Krishi-Panchang - Krishi-Panchang or Agro-almanac or Agro-panchang may be defined as “basic astro-agricultural guide book/calendar published annually, giving calenderical information on various aspects of agriculture and allied activities, basically suggesting region-wise, season-wise and crop-wise crop strategy based on astro-meteorological predictions, giving auspicious/inauspicious time for undertaking/avoiding various farm related operations, along with a list of performing religious rites,
festivals, observing fasts and some non-astrological guidance, primarily useful for the farming commu- nities and person having interest in agricultural development”.
(i) Making of Krishi-Panchang - A Krishi-Panchang may be defined as “basic astro-agricultural guide book/calendar (that needs to be) published annually, giving calenderical information on various aspects of agricultural and allied activities, basically suggesting region-wise, season-wise, and crop-wise crop strategy based on astro-meteorological predictions, giving auspicious/inauspi- cious time for undertaking/avoiding various farm-related operations, along with a list for performing religious rites, festivals, observing fasts, and some non-astrological agricultural guidance, primarily useful for the farming communities and persons having interest in agricultural development”. (ii) Content and coverage proposed - The Krishi-Panchang should be basically different from the
present-day panchangs in its content and coverage, method and approach of writing, composition of editorial boards, publication, and circulation. The Krishi-Panchang, being meant for meeting agricultural purposes, majority of its contents should relate to agricultural information. In addition to this, basic information such as annual date calendar, list of holidays, auspicious days/moments of the coming year should be given for the benefit of farming communities.
The contents of the proposed Krishi-Panchang can broadly be categorized in two major groups as follows:
1. Information, which changes every year
• Annual date and Holiday calendar
• Month-wise daily guide for the whole year
• “Rashiphal”, i.e., month-wise forecasting of persons having different zodiac sings • Daily/monthly/annual weather forecasting for the particular year
• Crop prospects of that year based on planetary positions • Season-wise crop strategy based on anticipated weather
2. Information, which remains same irrespective of any particular year
• Theories relating to agricultural and meteorological forecasting • Auspicious moments for agricultural and allied activities • Some general agricultural guidance
In ancient India, success in agricultural operations was determined from the position and movement of heavenly phenomena at the time of commencement of the particular practices. The ben- eficial or malefic influences were mostly valued at the time of ploughing and sowing. On the basis of position of planets, nakshatras, and other celestial bodies at any particular moment, and their influence on both materials as well as non-materials, living as well as non-living, Hindu astrologers (Jyotishis or
Hyotishacharyas) have written several “Muthurta Granthas” (books on auspicious/inauspicious
moments) for starting or doing or disregarding any activity (both agricultural as well as non-agricul- tural). For example: For finding out auspicious moments/days for ploughing of farmlands, astrologers consider the “Hala Chakra” or “Ploughing Cycle”. According to the cycle, the three nakshatras ahead of the nakshatra the sun leaves are inauspicious; three nakshatras ahead of those are auspicious; next three are inauspicious; next five are auspicious; next three are inauspicious; next five are auspicious; next three are inauspicious; and last three nakshatras are auspicious. This completes the cycle of 28
nakshatras (Ref: Muhurta Jyotish Vigyan; and Muhurta Chintaman). In addition to the above, the
“Beejopti Chakra” or “Seed Cycle” should also be considered. According to the cycle, eight nakshatras from the nakshatra at the position of the sun are inauspicious; in successive order next three nakshatras
are auspicious; the next (one) nakshatra is inauspicious; next three nakshatras are auspicious; next (one nakshatra is inauspicious; next three nakshatras are auspicious: next one nakshatra is inauspicious; next three nakshatras are auspicious; and last four nakshatras are inauspicious (Ref.: Brihat Jyotish
Sara; and Muhurta Jyotish Vigyana). Three ‘Uttaras’–(Uttarashadha, Uttaraphalguni, and Uttarabhadrapada), Hasta, Chitra, Swati, Mula, Dhanishtha. Rohini, Mrigashira, Pushya, Anuradha, Ashwini, and Magha are auspicious for crop transplanting and animal trade. Except Magha and Hasta,
all other nakshatras are auspicious for irrigation (Ref.: Mururta Chintamani).
(iii) Panchang-making - The content and coverage of the proposed Krishi-Panchang indicate that only qualified astrologers cannot prepare the whole content on their own, rather an editorial board comprising of both qualified astrologers and crop specialists can do justice. While preparing the Panchang, the editorial board members should keep in mind the following important points:
• The Krishi-Panchang is largely meant for the local farming communities, having very low educational status. Hence, it must be in the local colloquial language to facilitate reading and comprehension.
• Care should be taken to make the Krishi-Panchang easily understandable and clear in its meaning. • It should be very comprehensive in its content and coverage with proven predictive information
only.
• It should not contain any astrological details or complexities, which would go beyond the under- standing capability of our less educated farmers and agriculturists.
• It should be attractive in colour, and presentation of information should be systematic according to seasons (Kharif, rabi, and summer) and crops.
• It must be low-priced/nominal-priced, within the affordable range of small and marginal farmers.
• More important is, it must be made available to the farmers and needy persons sufficiently in advance, i.e., at least 1–2 months before the start of the agriculture year (July-June).
2.7 METHODS OF RAINFALL FORECASTS
Rainfall forecast is defined as “to tell before hand when, where and how it would rain”. For thousands of years India has been using astrology, study of clouds, examination of winds, observations of nature, animals, plants, birds for medium and short-range forecasts after the examination of the trends of rain astrologically for its overall long range forecasts.
Short range forecasts are forecasting monsoon rainfall developments, a few hours to 48 hours or
72 hours ahead.
Medium range forecasts are “preparation of scatter diagrams showing dispersal of rainfall classi-
fied as abnormal or normal or sub normal during the five-day period subsequent to the period to which the pressure height of a pair of selected stations refer”.
Long range forecasts are issued twice in the year for the entire period of four months June to
September and later for the second half of the monsoon season August and September.