City of Cumberland 5 3 1288 City of Evarts 4 1 490 City of Harlan 7 11 1060 City of Loyall 3 2 368 City of Lynch 2 0 514 City of Wallins 3 0 126 JACKSON COUNTY 2 18 4046 City of McKee 0 4 0 KNOX COUNTY 33 14 11461 City of Barbourville 5 2 1646 City of Corbin 3 5 892 LAUREL COUNTY 9 75 11582 City of London 0 26 0 ROCKCASTLE COUNTY 8 17 5034 City of Brodhead 1 0 518 City of Livingston 0 0 0 City of Mt. Vernon 6 4 1241 WHITLEY COUNTY 26 14 10358 City of Corbin 3 13 2812 City of Williamsburg 7 9 2118 Summary
CVADD staff and workgroup committees based the information for this Section (3.3.3) on best available data. A variety of sources were used to complete the tables. Information was gathered for residential and industrial structures and critical facilities by using U.S. Census data, the CEDS Plan, committee input and judge executives and mayors. Information from HAZUS was used to compile listings of infrastructure for the region.
Types and Numbers of Future Buildings, Infrastructure and Critical Facilities Over the next 10 years, the Region is projected to grow in population by 5% (Source: Kentucky State Data Center). However, this can be somewhat
misleading in that the population of the two major coal producing counties – Bell and Harlan – is projected to continue to decline (See Section 3.3.5 Analyzing Development Trends). For these two counties and their jurisdictions, there will be little if any increase in the number of critical facilities and infrastructure and low to very low increase in residential and/or industrial structures in general. Industrial expansion that takes place will be in the new industrial parks which are not located in floodplains. These parks have been individually evaluated for landslide vulnerability and steps have been taken to locate the parks in lower risk
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Further, mitigation strategies, actions and projects should result in a decrease of vulnerable assets in flood and landslide hazard areas. Workgroups further expect that new flood boundary maps would demonstrate fewer structures actually being located in the flood hazard area than are listed in the Plan based on use of outdated floodplain maps, because of USACE and HMGP projects -- completed, underway and planned.
Of the remaining counties Laurel is projected to have the greatest population growth, 16.66%; followed by Jackson – 12.6%; followed by Rockcastle – 10%; followed by Whitley – 6.5%; with Knox the lowest of the remaining six at 5.45%. CVADD staff calculated the projected number of new residential structures for these sixcounties over the next 10 years by dividing the population increase by 2.5 (median number of people in household). Results of these calculations are presented in the following table. These numbers would represent the
approximate number of new future residential structures potentially vulnerable to severe thunderstorm, tornado, severe winter storm and possibly landslides.
New Residential Structures That May Be Affected by Severe Storms, Tornados and Winter Storms by County
Jurisdiction Residential Structures CLAY COUNTY 365 JACKSON COUNTY 682 KNOX COUNTY 696 LAUREL COUNTY 3513 ROCKCASTLE COUNTY 668 WHITLEY COUNTY 934
The limitation of this calculation is that available data was at the county level and thus the projection is made at the county level. Mitigations strategies, actions and projects (projected and ongoing) should result in no increase of vulnerable assets in the 100-year floodplain. Further, planned mitigation actions will discourage development in the areas of greatest landslide vulnerability and /or provide educational materials on construction practices that discourage landslides when building permits are issued.
The CVADD staff and workgroup committees discussed potential increase in numbers of vulnerable critical facilities, and infrastructure; however, no
consensus for making a reliable calculation was reached. However, in future updates, involvement from local planning committees may assist in estimating an approximate increase in numbers of critical facilities and infrastructure based on projected population growth and their unique jurisdictional characteristics. Industrial expansion that takes place will be in the new industrial parks which are not located in floodplains. These parks have been individually evaluated for
landslide vulnerability and steps have been taken to locate the parks in lower risk areas.
In the future more local planning mechanisms may be developed that would provide insight into future needs for increased numbers of critical facilities, industry and infrastructure based on projected population growth and the unique characteristics of each individual planning jurisdiction.
3.3.4 Assessing Vulnerability: Estimating Potential Losses
Residential
There are five significant hazards, flood, landslide, severe storms, tornadoes, and winter storms, in the Cumberland Valley region. The following table lists calculated costs of damages for the number of residential structures potentially affected by each hazard, which is listed in Section 3.3.3, Table 3.3.3.3.
Method
The costs are calculated by assuming average value of residential properties in each county, as reported in the 2000 U.S. Census data. Currently, Laurel County has the only Property Valuation Administration office with complete GIS mapping. Other PVA offices in the Cumberland Valley region are working on updating their systems to GIS assessable mapping. In future updates of this plan, tabulating costs using their data may be a closer approximation of possible actual damage.
For purposes of the following table, severe storms and tornados were listed together. Workgroups determined all assets are vulnerable to severe storms, tornados and winter storms.
Table 3.3.4.1
Potential Damage Costs of Residential Structures ($100,000) Jurisdiction Flood Landslide
Severe Storms/ Winter Storm Tornado BELL COUNTY 66.15 3898.13 3898.13 3898.13 City of Middlesboro 359.31 2923.45 2923.45 2923.45 City of Pineville 108.89 670.78 670.78 670.78 CLAY COUNTY 124.83 3372.60 3372.60 3372.60 City of Manchester 16.01 1031.23 1031.23 1031.23 HARLAN COUNTY 110.94 4679.69 4679.69 4679.69 City of Benham 17.99 112.61 112.61 112.61 City of Cumberland 20.62 501.03 501.03 501.03
98 City of Loyall 71.40 154.56 154.56 154.56 City of Lynch 48.10 148.03 148.03 148.03 City of Wallins 28.21 50.78 50.78 50.78 JACKSON COUNTY 41.54 1954.22 2505.32 2505.32 City of McKee 4.33 0.00 345.93 345.93 KNOX COUNTY 267.30 6807.83 6807.83 6807.83 City of Barbourville 392.02 1236.15 1236.15 1236.15 City of Corbin 24.12 478.11 478.11 478.11 LAUREL COUNTY --- 8952.89 11332.95 11332.95 City of London 222.30 0.00 4217.77 4217.77 ROCKCASTLE COUNTY 15.39 2869.38 3119.04 3119.04 City of Brodhead 5.24 271.43 271.43 271.43 City of Livingston 2.28 0.00 39.65 39.65 City of Mt. Vernon 14.73 730.95 730.95 730.95 WHITLEY COUNTY 927.15 6432.32 6432.32 6432.32 City of Corbin 97.84 1937.47 1937.47 1937.47 City of Williamsburg 73.08 1474.13 1474.13 1474.13 Critical Facilities
Critical Facilities listed in HAZUS, which have associated costs of structures were used, in addition to PVA data, to compile the below listing of average costs for critical facilities.
Table 3.3.4.2 Name Cost FIRE DEPARTMENT $588,000 HEALTH DEPARTMENT $889,000 HOSPITAL $6,860,000 POLICE DEPARTMENT $1,372,000 SCHOOL $490,000 Method
The above average costs were multiplied by the number of critical facilities in Section 3.3.3, Table 3.3.3.3 to obtain the total value of critical facilities by each county and city. In a plan update, it is recommended to utilize both the listings from HAZUS data sets and workgroup committee information simultaneously. This was not possible during preparation of this plan due to delays in the release of HAZUS software.
For purposes of the following table, severe storms and tornados were listed together. Workgroups determined all assets are vulnerable to severe storms, tornados and winter storms.
The table below shows potential dollar loss (using the above-described method) for critical facilities for each of the identified hazards
Table 3.3.4.2
Potential Damage Costs of Critical Facilities ($100,000) Jurisdiction Flood Landslide
Severe Storms/ Winter Storm Tornado BELL COUNTY 469.15 632.34 632.34 632.34 City of Middlesboro 81.59 203.98 203.98 203.98 City of Pineville 0 82 82 82 CLAY COUNTY 0 203.98 203.98 203.98 City of Manchester 0 142.79 142.79 142.79 HARLAN COUNTY 244.78 1142.29 1142.29 1142.29 City of Benham 0 40.80 40.80 40.80 City of Cumberland 40.80 101.99 101.99 101.99 City of Evarts 20.40 81.59 81.59 81.59 City of Harlan 81.59 142.79 142.79 142.79 City of Loyall 61.19 61.19 61.19 61.19 City of Lynch 0 40.80 40.80 40.80 City of Wallins 20.40 61.19 61.19 61.19 JACKSON COUNTY 163.18 40.80 183.58 183.58 City of McKee 142.79 0 142.79 142.79 KNOX COUNTY 305.97 673.13 673.13 673.13 City of Barbourville 40.80 101.99 101.99 101.99 City of Corbin 20.40 61.19 61.19 61.19 LAUREL COUNTY 203.98 183.58 815.92 815.92 City of London 40.80 0 163.18 163.18 ROCKCASTLE COUNTY 20.40 163.18 367.16 367.16 City of Brodhead 0 20.40 40.80 40.80 City of Livingston 0 0 40.80 40.80 City of Mt. Vernon 0 122.39 122.39 122.39 WHITLEY COUNTY 40.80 530.35 530.35 530.35 City of Corbin 20.40 61.19 61.19 61.19 City of Williamsburg 0 142.79 142.79 142.79
The tables above list potential dollar loss to residential structures and critical facilities from a each identified hazard.
At this time, projected costs for industry is not available. Future plan updates may examine potential dollar loss to industrial structures as more and better data becomes available.
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Section 3.3.3 includes the type of infrastructure as defined by the workgroup committees except interstates, federal and state highways and county roads and railroads. The appendix to this Plan discusses these transportation infrastructures as addressed in the CEDS Plan.
The referenced tables list the name of the facility, location, and estimated value. Information from HAZUS was used to compile information found in the tables. All of these assets are potentially vulnerable to all identified hazards, including landslides (in some instances*) except flooding. In future updates of the Plan, workgroup committees hope to identify infrastructure vulnerable to flooding and more accurately identify structures vulnerable to landslides and calculate projected percentages of damage to infrastructure.
Summary
Limitations in data at this time have prevented analysis of potential dollar losses to industry and infrastructure located in the flood plain. A more complete analysis of vulnerable infrastructure is not feasible at this time due to delays in the release of the current HAZUS software and other data limitations. Potential dollar losses for vulnerable infrastructure may be re-evaluated in future plan updates.
With the completion of UASCE projects underway and projected (See Section 3.2.4 in the Planning Process – Review and Incorporation of Studies, etc) along with current and projected HMGP projects, the number of all types of structures in the floodway is expected to decrease.
3.3.5 Assessing Vulnerability: Analyzing Development Trends
Topics in analyzing development trends for the Cumberland Valley region include