El pájaro flautero.

There is an overall trend to increase the use of systems analysis techniques, derived from the safety, in the security domain. The AMENUS action contributes to the development of methodologies, software tools and probabilistic methods for the evaluation of Nuclear Safeguards Effectiveness, Proliferation Resistance of existing and advanced nuclear energy systems including related fuel cycles and research reactors.

Motivated by the EU Council Regulation setting a “Community regime for the control of exports of dual use items and technology”*, the project on trade analysis has progressed with the identification of trade data sources and as- sessing their possible use to inform verification activities carried out by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). Open source information and tech- nical knowledge of the fuel cycle are used, on customer demand, for compiling Nuclear Country and regional profiles as well as for characterizing emerging proliferation threats.

Networking is an essential asset in a knowledge growing society. JRC-IPSC was among the founders of the European Safeguards Research and Development As- sociation (ESARDA) and of the European Safety Reliability and Data Association (ESReDA). The action contributes and supports both associations.

Major 2008 achievements

Proliferation Resistance and Physical Protection Methodologies and Studies

This activity is mainly related to supporting the Euratom participation in the Gen- eration IV International Forum (GIF)** and to contribute to the IAEA International Project on Innovative Nuclear Reactors and Fuel Cycles (INPRO)***. AMENUS contributes actively to the GIF Working Group on “Proliferation Resistance and Physical Protection” (PR&PP) and to the INPRO project on Proliferation Resistance Acquisition and Diversion Analysis (PRADA). In 2008, the appendixes of the Revi- sion 5 of the PR&PP methodology were made available on the GIF web site**** and a two-year case study, started in 2007, was completed. The study analysed the response of an entire hypothetical nuclear energy system, named Example Sodium Fast Reactor (ESFR), to different proliferation (diversion, misuse, and breakout) and theft strategies, and considered different design variations of the ESFR: figure 1 presents in a compact way the possible way for covertly producing Pu.

Safeguards by Design and Systems Analysis for Nuclear Security

“Safeguards by design” is a new emerging topic. In a nutshell, new facilities will have to be designed taking into account safeguards requirement since early de- sign stages: this will pave the way to more effective and efficient safeguards. In 2008 an activity on safeguards by design was activated by IAEA with the Member States support programmes to the Agency. The work on systems analysis applied to security and on the JRC proprietary tool for Fault Tree analysis ASTRA code (figure 2)*****, especially developed for safety and security applications, was continued with extended testing and investigations on large trees.

Trade Analysis and Export Control

As part of a European Commission Support Programme Task to the IAEA, a survey of world trade data from the open source was conducted (figure 3). A catalogue was produced to cover services offering data on trade. The survey was motivated by the hypothesis that trade databases may be useful to support IAEA verification activities. Trade data may indeed provide insights to assist the

Contact Giacomo G.M. Cojazzi Tel +39 0332 785085 e-mail: [email protected] website: http://nuclearsafeguards.jrc.it

A M E N U S

Fig. 1: Pathway Identification for covert Pu Production in ESFR NES

* Nature news, published on line 12 February 2008 I Nature 451, 750-751 (2008) ** http://esarda2.jrc.it/

*** http://www.esreda.org/

Fig. 3: Countries covered by services on trade transactions. For each country the number of years data is shown

Fig. 2: JRC ASTRA-3 code for fault tree analysis for safety and security applications

verification of additional protocol and nuclear material transfer declarations, as well as to give indications of possible undeclared activities. This hypothesis is being confirmed by positive results obtained by testing these new sources of information on sample cases provided by the IAEA and carried out jointly by IAEA staff and JRC researchers.

Open Source Information Collection and Analysis and Non Proliferation Studies

Daily news on nuclear security issues are regularly monitored by using the Euro- pean Media Monitor tool. A special category of keywords, named JRC-Safeguards is defined and maintained, thus allowing timely identification of relevant issues and trigger of alerts. New studies were initiated, such as a study on the US– India civilian nuclear deal. As a product of a modelling activity on enrichment centrifuges installations, estimates of Iran enrichment capability were made in collaboration with the action PHYMOD. Some of the preliminary results were presented in an interview published in the Nature on-line journal*.

ESARDA & Networking

JRC-IPSC continued to provide the general secretariat to ESARDA including the maintenance of the on-line knowledge repository where all the symposia proceedings and other relevant documents can be fully accessed**. In 2008 a focussed effort was done to streamline the publications of the ESARDA Bulletin and three new issues of the Bulletin were produced in 2008, including a special issue dedicated to Proliferation Resistance.

The support to ESReDA also continued, with the publication of the Seminars Proceedings which are issued both in paper form and as CD-ROMs. The whole collection of old ESReDA proceedings was digitalised and will be made available on the ESReDA web site*** during the course of 2009.

Challenges for 2009 and beyond

Proliferation resistance analysis of future nuclear energy systems will remain a topic for future work. The PR&PP group of GIF will strengthen its collaboration with the Systems Steering Committees of the generation IV nuclear energy sys- tems. White papers on the PR&PP issues will be issued for each GEN IV design and this will trigger new studies. In addition, the emerging topic of safeguards by design will be also an area of future work.

On the side of trade analysis in support to IAEA verification activities, the work will continue and expand and a software prototype tool will be developed and delivered to the Agency in 2009 to support trade analysis and the identification of relevant codes for the queries in trade databases. An event on export control will be organised jointly with US Department of Energy and European Union member states. The need to set up a European network of technical experts on dual use issues will be identified.

The work on country profiles and non-proliferation studies will continue exploit- ing synergies and tools developed within the JRC and tailoring them to the needs of non-proliferation assessments. The Council of the European Union adopted in late 2008 the action plan “New lines for action by the European Union in combat- ing the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction and their delivery systems” (ST 17172/08); this document will trigger a number of initiatives relevant to JRC work including the activity on non-proliferation studies.

In 2009 this action will be renamed IANUS (Information Analysis for Nuclear Security).

GLOSSARY

ESARDA European Safeguards Research and Development Associa- tion

ESFR Example Sodium Fast Reactor

ESReDA European Safety Reliability and Data Association

GIF Generation IV International Forum

IAEA International Atomic Energy Agency

INPRO International Project on In- novative Nuclear Reactors and Fuel Cycles

NES Nuclear Energy System

PRADA Proliferation Resistance Acquisition and Diversion Analysis

PR&PP Proliferation Resistance and Physical Protection

72

Development and Validation of