This section seeks to determine how and why the population changed, and if the gold rush population decline did cause the depression. Numbers are charted in figure 2.1, but the figures are problematic. None have been found for 1856, and no explanation for this has been found. Calculations for the inter-censal years were not always accurate, with the government statistician, E C Nowell, stating the unexpectedly lower figure in the 1870 census could only be explained by unrecorded departures. He also regretted the lack of detail regarding occupations, but blamed this on ‘the smallness of the sum voted for taking the census’.18 Unrecorded departures were always going to be a fact of life in an island country, where the more secure main ports could be bypassed by using one of the many vessels available in any of the bays and river mouths providing safe anchorage.
16 'Statistical Summary for Tasmania, from 1816 to 1890’, TJPP, XXIV, paper 150, (1891), pp 3-
11.
17 Heather Felton, ‘Johnston, Robert Mackenzie’, in Alexander, A, (ed), The Companion to
Tasmanian History, (Hobart, 2005), p 195.
Figure 2.1: Tasmanian Population 1850-1890
Source: Calculated from ‘Statistical Summary for Tasmania, from 1816 to 1890,' Appendix A to Statistics of Tasmania for 1890', JPPP, XXIV, (1891), p 3.
There are two clear trends. The population fluctuated from 1851-1855, the gold rush years. Thereafter the population stabilized, but increased only slowly until 1876, with the growth rate increasing from that time.
A study of the net migration provides a clearer picture of the population movements (figure 2.2). This shows large population movements, in both directions, during the Victorian gold rush.
0 20000 40000 60000 80000 100000 120000 140000 160000 18 50 18 52 18 54 18 56 18 58 18 60 18 62 18 64 18 66 18 68 18 70 18 72 18 74 18 76 18 78 18 80 18 82 18 84 18 86 18 88 18 90 P opul at io n num be rs
Figure 2.2: Net Migration 1850-1890
Source: Calculated from 'Statistical Summary for Tasmania, from 1816 to 1890, Appendix A to Statistics of Tasmania for 1890', TJPP, XXIV, (1891), p 3.
From 1851-1855, some 60,402 people left Tasmania, but 51,971 arrived. Tasmania’s great population loss amounted to a net loss of 8,431 out of a total population of around 69,000.19 Two other periods of net outmigration followed, first at the beginning of the 1860s and later at the beginning of the 1870s. Only the years 1864-1867 saw positive migration into Tasmania. The trend became positive from 1876.
Men went to the new Snowy River goldfields in 1860 and to the Otago gold rush in 1861.20 From 1856 to 1866 Tasmanian women and children left to join their men folk who had remained in Victoria after the gold rush.21 This was the
19
Calculated from 'Statistical Summary for Tasmania, from 1816 to 1890’, p 3.
20Mercury, 21 August 1860, p 4; R Kellaway, ‘Tasmania and the Otago Gold Rush, 1861-1865,’
THRA Papers and Proceedings, 46, (1976), p 214.
21 ‘Statistics of Tasmania 1866’, JHA, XV, paper 1, (1867), p vi.
-10000 -8000 -6000 -4000 -2000 0 2000 4000 6000 18 50 18 52 18 54 18 56 18 58 18 60 18 62 18 64 18 66 18 68 18 70 18 72 18 74 18 76 18 78 18 80 18 82 18 84 18 86 18 88 18 90 N et M ig ra ti on num be rs
population loss that Townsley reported as more significant, and this is justified since it meant the permanent relocation of families to Victoria. By 1865, the Tasmanian Immigration Agent, G Smith, was able to report that the excitement of the gold rushes was past; Tasmanian wages equalled those of the mainland colonies; and the ‘craving for change’ had died out and there was no longer any fear that new immigrants would leave at the first opportunity.22
The composition of the Tasmanian population changed, with the percentage of working-age males declining from thirty-eight per cent of the population in 1857, to its lowest at twenty-seven per cent in 1870. By 1880 it had risen slightly to twenty-nine per cent.23 The proportion of women increased, but this was an adjustment from the male dominated convict years to a more normal distribution. In 1861 there were 122.8 males to every 100 females; by 1870 it had declined to 113.72 males to 100 females.24 The proportion of children rose. This study has not been able to replicate the figures quoted by Townsley, who reported that eight out of every ten people were children in 1870.25 If childhood is measured from birth to fifteen years of age, the range used in the Statistics of Tasmania, then children made up forty-three per cent of the population in 1870.26 Contemporary sources recognized this as a problem of an underproductive labour force, the statistician
22 ‘Immigration Agent’s Report’, JHA, XII, paper 20, (1865), p 4.
23 Calculated from Statistics of Tasmania for 1857, JHA, III, paper 30, (1858), pp 6-7; 1861, JHA,
paper VIII, paper 4, (1862), pp 6-7; 1870, JHA, XXI, paper 1, (1871), pp 5-7; 1880, JHA, XL, paper 1, (1881), pp 31-3.
24 ‘Statistics of Tasmania 1869’, JHA, XIX, paper 1, (1870), p vi. 25 Townsley, 'Tasmania and the Great Economic Depression,’ p 35.
reporting concern on the continuing increase in the proportion of the population unable to assist in the production of wealth.27
Before accepting the contemporary opinion at its face value, some consideration does need to be given to where additional people would have found employment. The following sections will show that many industries were in decline, and perhaps the reduction in numbers of those needing employment saved a great deal of distress and hardship, particularly in the larger towns.
Some questions remain. Little is known about the contribution women made to this economy, although many were employed in rural districts and in domestic service. It is not clear at this stage why the out-migration trend reversed in the mid-seventies; the trend is clear by 1876. Linge noted that miners were not attracted to the Beaconsfield gold-mines until 1877, a little later.28 After the initial discoveries in 1871, tin mining developed in both the north-west and the north- east of the Island; this is discussed further in Chapters Six and Seven.
Did the population loss cause the depression? Its effect on Tasmania’s most profitable enterprise was probably slight, since pastoralism had developed precisely because it had low labour needs.29 Tasmania would have needed some
27
‘Statistics of Tasmania 1869’, JHA, XIX, (1870), p viii.
28 Linge, Industrial Awakening, pp 639-41.
29 B Davidson, European Farming in Australia: an Economic History of AustralianFarming,
3,000 shepherds in 1858, if calculations are based on Hartwell’s estimates.30 The idea that significant numbers of shepherds left permanently is not supported by the qualitative evidence. There are no complaints from pastoralists and farmers that the shearing was not done, or that they reduced sheep numbers because they could not obtain labour. Pastoralists might complain of the high cost of labour, but then, they always did in Australia. Davidson reported that pastoralists hoped for a speedy end to the gold rushes, which would leave a large unemployed labour force and consequently drive down the price of labour.31 This was particularly so in Tasmania, where pastoralists looked back nostalgically to the days of free convict labour. Furthermore, those involved in pastoralism and associated industries, while complaining of the high cost of labour, also blamed failures within the industry, mainly overstocking and disease.32 These problems are discussed under productivity.
The grain industry, second as an export earner, was another matter, requiring, in the absence of machinery, seasonal labour for cultivating, planting, and harvesting. In evidence to the 1868 enquiry, pastoralists Arthur Leake and Heinric Nicholas reported that they did not cultivate because they could not obtain efficient labourers.33 Perhaps, but it will be shown that the wheat industry had other problems.
30 R M Hartwell, The Economic Development of Van Diemen's Land 1820-1850, (Melbourne,
1954), p 113.
31 Davidson, European Farming, pp 126-7.
32 ‘Select Committee on Agricultural and Pastoral Depression’, pp 5-8. 33 ‘Select Committee on Agricultural and Pastoral Depression’, pp 6-7.
In 1870 the arrival of just 301 German immigrants glutted the markets for agricultural labourers and tradesmen. Female servants were quickly employed. Agricultural labourers were eventually employed, but the Board of Immigration reported that ‘…the general depression under which the Colony laboured, tended to check the demand for their services’. It was even more difficult to find employment for the tradesmen.34 The best summary of the situation is probably that of Linge, who reported that it was difficult in Tasmania ‘to maintain a long- run balance between labour and supply’.35 Linge was writing of an earlier period, but it appears to apply equally well to the second half of the century.
Population loss did have a significant impact on Tasmanian government revenue, and this is discussed in the section on finance.
Trade
This section seeks to determine causes for the trading decline and particularly how changes in the wider economy and fluctuations in the trade cycle contributed to depression. It examines the balance of trade, fluctuations in the export values of pastoral and agricultural products, and shipping. Mining, which developed towards the end of this depression, is discussed in the section on productivity.
The method used to describe trade in the Statistics of Tasmania at this time was to sum the value of imports and exports, and divide this by the population numbers,
34 ‘Board of Immigration Report for 1870’, LCJ, XVII, paper 14, (1871), pp 4-6. 35 Linge, Industrial Awakening, p 118.
thus arriving at a measure of trade per capita. This was useful in allowing a ready comparison between colonies. Townsley used these figures to show how Tasmanian trade declined from £15.2 [£15 4s] to £9.9 [£9 18s] per head between 1862 and 1866, which he claimed were the worst years of the trade cycle. By comparison, in 1866 in South Australia the values for imports and exports were respectively £16.3 [£16 6s] and £20 per capita.36
This study charted the total values of exports and imports (figure 2.3), then calculated the balance of trade (figure 2.4). This method was chosen because it is more familiar to the modern reader; however, it has problems. Hartwell argued that British Commissariat transactions in the colony were international payments.37 To account for these, the balance of trade was then recalculated, adding in the Commissariat expenditure with the export values. The two calculations are compared in figure 2.4.
36
The figures are quoted here as Townsley used them, with the shillings written as a decimal fraction. The figure in parentheses is the amount converted to £ and shillings. Townsley, 'Tasmania and the Great Economic Depression', p 38.
Figure 2.3: Value of Exports and Imports 1850-1890
Source:Calculated from 'Statistical Summary for Tasmania, from 1816 to 1890, Appendix A to Statistics of Tasmania for 1890', TJPP, XXIV, (1891), p 6.
More than anything else, the chart demonstrates the speculative nature of nineteenth century trading. The spike in exports in 1854-1855 was quickly followed by a spike in imports. This occurred across the Australian colonies. Sydney Butlin showed that large flow of imports in 1854 produced an economic recession.38 When gold prices rose in Sydney and Melbourne, along with commodity prices and increasing population, traders were tempted to import more goods. Markets were glutted for nearly a year.39
Figure 2.4 shows that the balance of trade was negative for much of the period. This was not unusual; Hartwell reported the same thing for the first fifty years in
38 S J Butlin, The Australian Monetary System 1851-1914, (Sydney, 1986), p 12. 39 Hartwell, Economic Development, pp 52-3.
0 500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000 2,500,000 3,000,000 18 50 18 52 18 54 18 56 18 58 18 60 18 62 18 64 18 66 18 68 18 70 18 72 18 74 18 76 18 78 18 80 18 82 18 84 18 86 18 88 18 90 P ounds s ti rl ing
the Colony.40 The trade balance was positive from 1862-6, and then from 1875- 81, but was very shaky around the late seventies. It will be shown below that the positive years match pastoral boom years in Tasmania. The sharp declines of the early seventies and after 1883 match the years when the Tasmanian government was borrowing money; for the railways in 1870-2, and for extensive capital works programs in the eighties. The latter are discussed in Chapter Six.
Figure 2.4: Balance of Trade and Balance of Trade Corrected for Commissariat Expenditure
Source: Calculated from 'Statistical Summary for Tasmania, from 1816 to 1890, Appendix A to Statistics of Tasmania for 1890', TJPP, XXIV, (1891), p 6, and the annual Statistics of Tasmania for 1855-1880.
When the Commissariat expenditure is added in, the trends remain unchanged but the whole balance of trade line shifts in the positive direction.41 It becomes positive for 1857, and the positive values increase in the years from 1861-66, and
40 Hartwell, Economic Development, p 100.
41 Calculated from the annual Statistics of Tasmania, 1855-1880.
-500,000 -400,000 -300,000 -200,000 -100,000 0 100,000 200,000 300,000 18 56 18 58 18 60 18 62 18 64 18 66 18 68 18 70 18 72 18 74 18 76 18 78 18 80 18 82 18 84 18 86 18 88 18 90 P ounds s ti rl ing
again in 1868 and 1872. Commissariat expenditure fell by about half from £139,000 in 1857 to £67,000 in 1867. The average annual Commissariat expenditure for the years 1856-59 was £139,645; from 1860-1869 it was £72,494. In comparison, the wool clip, much the same in 1857 as in 1867, was worth about £378,900, so the loss in the 1860s would have been similar to losing twenty per cent of the wool clip.42
These figures show the large impact Commissariat expenditure had on the economy up to 1868, and perhaps suggests why the government delayed so long before holding an enquiry into the depression. The governing class benefited most from Commissariat salaries and contracts, and were consequently insulated from the full force of the depression until the late sixties, when the Commissariat contribution had significantly declined.
Commissariat expenditure was not the total English expenditure in the Colony. The Statistics of Tasmania and the General Revenue Accounts printed in the various parliamentary papers show that, until the end of the nineteenth century, Britain contributed money for police and gaols, hospitals and charitable institutions, and unspecified reimbursements made through the agent-general in London. These have not been included since there is no series and extracting one from the accounts is problematic because the method of reporting was not consistent across the period studied here.
There was another loss in this economy. An underlying assumption in discussing the balance of trade is that export income represents money flowing into the colony. This assumption cannot be made in Tasmania. Until the late 1870s, most of Australia’s wool clip was sold in the London markets. During the seventies, sales were established in Melbourne and Geelong, partly as a response to the needs of growing numbers of small producers that came into being following the land selection provisions in Victoria. Then, in the eighties, sales expanded in Sydney. Even by the end of the nineteenth century, half of all Australian wool was still consigned to the London auctions. The remainder was sold at auctions held in Melbourne, Geelong, Sydney, Adelaide and Hobart.43 At the same time, many of Tasmania’s pastoral and mixed farming estates were owned by absentee landlords, who could have their wool consigned to London for sale and who then needed only to transfer to Tasmania the operating expenses for the estates.
It is impossible to calculate the percentage of the wool clip owned by absentees for this period, but the only study of tenant farming in Tasmania demonstrated that would have been significant. Breen, in a study on the northern region, a major grain and wool producing area, found that in 1858, twenty-four landlords controlled thirty-five estates and two of every three farms were tenancies. Half the number of landlords did not live on their estates, with some as far away as Melbourne, London, and Calcutta. This pattern persisted throughout the
nineteenth century.44 More research is needed on this question, but if the great pastoral districts of Lincoln and Cumberland followed the same pattern, the loss could equal or exceed that lost on Commissariat expenditure. Unlike the sudden decline of Commissariat funding, however, this was a constant slow bleeding of profits throughout the nineteenth century.
In order to identify specific causes of the decline, export values for individual products were examined. Wool is examined first (figure 2.5). There are qualifications to the figures. The values of exports are those declared in Customs, and bear little resemblance to the ultimate price received in the market place. The wool quantities and values were measured annually by counting the number of bales, then calculating weight and value by using an average. The numbers of bales counted are those cleared in customs for shipping by the 31 December, while the shearing was still in progress, so it really represents part of the current years’ output plus the wool not cleared from the previous season. There were also simple counting errors, as occurred in 1869, when the apparent decline in both value and quantity of wool exports, was caused by a counting error.45
44 S Breen, Contested Places: Tasmania's Northern Districts from Ancient Times to 1900, (Hobart,
2001), pp 47-54.
Figure 2.5: Export Values for Wool 1850-1890
Source: Calculated from 'Statistical Summary for Tasmania, from 1816 to 1890, Appendix A to Statistics of Tasmania for 1890', TJPP, XXIV, (1891), p 7.
Immediately noticeable are the cyclical variations in the value of wool exports. These do not occur in any other industry, as the following charts show. The decline in wool export values from the peak in 1854 to the trough of 1860 was almost the same as the decline from the peak of 1864 to the trough of 1870, being £69,489 and £69,000 respectively.
The trough years in the wool cycle occurred in the late 1840s, late 1850s, late 1860s, and in the early 1880s. These match trough years in the British trade cycles identified by Rostow.46 An exact match is unlikely because of the time required for transport and communications in the days of sail; however, this suggests strongly that declines in the British cycle had a major impact on Tasmania’s wool
46 W W Rostow, British Economy of the Nineteenth Century, (Oxford, 1948), p 33.
0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000 18 50 18 52 18 54 18 56 18