Plano de evacuación

2.0 Introduction:

This chapter provides an introduction to the potential impacts o f changes in climatic conditions which could affect the world coastal areas. In addition, this chapter highlights in more detail the Sultanate o f Oman its location, the importance o f coastal systems, the population and the action that the government has taken to manage the coastal areas and tackle climate change. This chapter also provides an insight into some o f the current weakness o f the coastal planning in engaging climate change hazards and indicates why there is a need for an urgent strategy into achieving the national goal o f ICZM over associated climate change impacts.

2.1 Climate Change and Coastal Zones:

As has been revealed earlier in chapter one, climate change is one o f the most important global environmental challenges facing humanity and has been accepted as one o f the global problems which is not easy to tackle (IPCC2007 ; Ravindranth et al, 2003). According to Frederic and Emilliano (2001) climate change is widely agreed to be a serious threat to the world's environment and for several years, global warming and climate change have prompted considerable discussion. It is considered a real and urgent challenge that is already affecting people and the environment worldwide (Alnaser & Merzaa, 2003).

Arguably, recent scientific studies have led to a concern that climate change impacts are omnipresent, with intense impacts on water resources, livelihood, ecosystems, energy, agriculture and other socio-economic affairs (Alam & Ahmed, 2010).

Additionally, climate change causes cascade effects in a wide range o f areas, and these effects may be direct at times, especially when manifested as natural disasters and destruction o f ecosystems, consequently, the major problem is the rate o f change (Barring & Laprise, 2005). Solomon et al (2007) pointed out that, more abrupt

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changes will lead to greater negative impacts particularly concerning biological societies unable to adapt to such rapid change. As a result, many species will face the risk o f extinction. It is therefore o f vital important to predict and prepare for the future climate changes.

Furthermore, according to Torresan et al ( 2008), during the 21^ century global climate change is a major threat facing humanity. The Fourth Assessment Report o f the IPCC (2007) also states that the warming o f climate system is unequivocal and although the potential impacts o f climate change themselves may not always pose the greatest threat to natural coastal systems, however, in conjunction with other stresses they could become a serious issue for coastal societies, particularly in those places where the resilience o f the coast has been reduced. In general, IPCC (2007) concluded that, “there is stronger evidence that global warming is likely to have profound impacts on coastal communities”.

Sea level rise, changes in temperatures and precipitation pattern, in addition to variation in the frequency, distribution and intensity o f extreme events such as cyclones and storm surges are the most consequences o f climate change on coastal areas (Brochier & Ramieri, 2001).

At regional level, climate changes will vary from region to region, and will have a distinct regional character and different impacts on coastal zones depending on social, cultural, economic and environmental conditions (fPCC,2007). Although changes in extreme event, is still uncertain, they are likely to have important consequences for coastal zones and the mechanisms that determine the occurrence o f such events, as well as their pattern, are poorly understood. Nonetheless, cyclones in the Bay o f Bengal and hurricanes in the Caribbean have already caused serious economic disruption, damage to infrastructure and loss o f human life, independent o f global climate change (Klein, 2002).

Against this background, the global vulnerability assessments carried out by Hoozemans et al. (1993) and Baarse (1995) suggest that some 189 million people presently live below the once-per-1000 years storm surge level (“ the hazard zone”).

They also estimate that, under present conditions, an average o f 46 million people per year experience storm-surge flooding. This number would double if sea level rises 50 cm (92 million people/year), and almost triple if it rises one m eter (118 million people/year). Furthermore, between 86% and 92 % o f these people would experience flooding even more than once a year (Klein, 2002). These projections do not take into account any further population growth, changes in storm frequencies and intensities or adaptive response.

Yet, in recent update, Nicholls (2002) estimates the current number o f people living in the hazard zone at 197 million and the average annual number o f people flooded at 10 million. In other words, when population growth is considered, the former figure would increase to 399-598 million in 2100 in the absence o f sea level rise and to 503- 755 million in 2100 when a high sea level rise scenario is assumed (96 cm in 2100).

Recent assumption assumes that, in no upgrade in protection levels and the same high sea level rise scenario, the average annual number o f people flooded would be 326- 510 million in 2100, o f whom 309-484 million would be flooded more than once per year (Solomon et al., 2007).

On the other hand, in assuming that protection levels increase with growing national income reduces the number to 211-337 million in 2100, o f whom 195-311 million would experience flooding more than once per year (Fairbank & Jakeways, 2007).

Overall, according to recent studies, climate change impacts including severe and frequent cyclones, storms, floods, droughts and accelerated sea level rise, could lead to adverse affects on coastal regions where most o f the w orld’s population lives (Huang, 1997). Tyagi et al 2010, classified tropical cyclones as the most dangerous, damaging and devastating phenomenon among all natural disasters, as more than h alf a million o f lives have been affected all over the world in the last five decades.

Coastal zones as have been described by Sano et al, (2009) are the most complex, highly dynamic ecosystem and fragile environment interface on Earth. A t the

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boundary between land and sea, coastal zones are densely populated, characterised as highly diverse ecosystems and are o f great ecological and socio-economic importance (Martens, 2000; IPCC, 2001).

In addition, these areas sustain economic activities that in many places have led to high population growth rates and economic development. (Nicholls &

Hoozemans, 1996). Throughout history, humanity has preferred to inhabit coastal zones over other regions; such coastal populations are growing and are expected to grow more rapidly than the global average as a result o f net coastward migration and urbanisation (Purvis et al, 2008).

In summary, climate change are expected to affect coastal communities worldwide, however, many countries are already considered vulnerable to ongoing climate variability (Dolan& Walker,2004). Accelerated sea level rise has received much attention and according to the scientific researches it may entail elevated tidal inundation, increased flood frequency, accelerated erosion, increased saltwater intrusion, and a suit o f ecological changes (IPCC,2007). Consequently, such changes are expected and without doubt will cause various socio-economic impacts including loss o f land infrastructure and coastal resources as well as declines in associated economic, ecological cultural and subsistence values (Dolan& Walker,2004).

Although, coastal zone impacts assessment work has been driven largely by IPCC, yet, the decision-makers and scientists have to be prepared for future change along the coastal areas, to develop realistic policy strategies for reducing the impacts o f climate change, identifying the link between changing natural and socio-economic conditions, establish proper hazard response and adaptation strategies in order to be well prepared for future consequences, such long-term responses and strategies which should be integrated with existing short-term plans in order to create an effective and efficiency integrated coastal zone management programme (IPCC, 2001;Monirul, 2003).

Arguably, in Oman climate change has become a dominant issue and is o f crucial significance because changes in the country’s environment and population may have an impact on its coastal zone. There is currently no policy related to CZM and climate change within Oman coastal planning. Therefore, it is important for Oman, to understand the biophysical and socio-economic effects o f climate change, vulnerability to present-day and future climate extremes such as cyclones to provide a useful insight about the adaptive capacity o f a country.

According to the available literature as will been seen in the following chapter, there are two main impacts that climate change is likely to have on Oman’s coastal zone, namely sea level rise and storms and associated surges, which affect coastal zones via flooding and wind damage). The following sections provide a brief review o f the literature linking climate change with its impacts in the coastal zone o f Oman.