to be faced at the beginning of the new
millennium
Alicia M. Maguid
1Introduction
In view of the changes that have taken place in international popu- lation movements and in the regional and international socio-political and economic context, adequate, accessible and timely information is urgently needed for the formulation of migration policies and initia- tives. This need is particularly important in the context of the subre- gional development and integration processes which are setting the scene for the Americas at the beginning of the new millennium.
Globalization, the increasing economic interdependence in the world economy and regional integration are creating socio-economic areas where there are movements of persons, in addition to the growing interchange of goods, technology and services.
1 Director of Sectoral Statistics, National Institute of Statistics and Censuses (INDEC) and Researcher with the National Council of Scientific and Technical Research (CONICENT) of Argentina. email: [email protected].
In this context, international migration has to be seen in a new way, and innovative methodologies and the joint and consensus-based efforts of the countries concerned are needed to deal with the different aspects of the phenomenon and its relationship to development. On the one hand, the advances made by the countries of the region in strengthening democracy and in respect for human rights have included consideration of the right of persons to migrate or to stay in their place of origin and to the guarantee of proper treatment for migrants in their countries of origin, transit and destination.
Although international migration has occurred throughout the history of Latin America, it has gone through profound changes in the last few decades, including a growing heterogeneity of the types of movements involved, which has resulted in a great diversity of international migrants. In addition to these aspects, there are other factors to consider which encourage continued migration, such as the role of networks formed by the migrants themselves, their family members and friends, and institutional networks ranging from humanitarian organizations to those that profit from trafficking in undocumented persons.
Quite apart from the long-standing deficiencies in the quality and availability of information, the increasingly complex dynamics of regional migration is making new demands with regard to the type, characteristics, accessibility and dissemination of the information required as input for decision- making.
The purpose of this study is to show that it is possible to meet the challenge of constructing migration information systems and ensuring their sustainability over time. Sufficient experience has been gained for this purpose and progress has been made in consolidating the national statistical systems, so that shared methodologies could be introduced to measure international migration and its characteristics. Another positive factor is the recognition by the governments in the region of the need for migration policies and measures to be implemented on the basis of an adequate knowledge of the phenomenon and its links with development and integration processes.
1.
Recent migration movements
2and the new information needs
The migration movements of the Latin American population are a complex social process that is historically linked to the development of the region’s societies. These movements have expressed and continue to express economic, social and political imbalances between countries and regions. They have occurred throughout the history of the region, but in the last few decades have gone through such profound changes in terms of numbers, direction, characteristics and impacts on the countries of origin and destination, that migration is now very prominent as a regional issue that is closely linked to the countries’ potential for change and development.Until the mid-twentieth century, international population movements in Latin America consisted of immigration from outside the region, mainly from Europe, or traditional transboundary movements. From that time onward, two main migration patterns began to emerge which have become stronger over the past few decades: one relating to movements between countries in the region and another of an extra-regional nature, directed mainly towards the United States.
The census information provided by IMILA shows that intraregional migration increased significantly between 1970 and 1980, when the migrant stock doubled; then it began to stabilize, reaching 2.2 million at the beginning of the 1990s. However, as the censuses only cover migration that involves a change of residence for a certain length of time, this apparent stability may have been
2 The review of these issues is based on the census information systematized by the IMILA Project (International Migration in Latin America) and published by ECLAC/CELADE (2000). The analysis of the situation in Central America is based on Maguid (1999).
offset by the appearance of other types of circular mobility, which involve returning to the place of origin, and are of variable duration (see Picouet and Domenach, 1990).
In those two decades, two thirds of the 2 million Latin Americans residing in countries of the region other than their country of birth were in Argentina and Venezuela, which have become the main receiving countries for intraregional migration. At the same time, Colombia, Chile, and Paraguay have continued to produce higher numbers of emigrants as well as, to a lesser extent, Uruguay, which has suffered the greatest loss in relation to the size of its population, to the point that the emigration rate reached values similar to the mortality rate.
Other flows which increased over the 1980s were of Nicaraguans and Salvadorans to Costa Rica and Honduras and of Guatemalans to Mexico, as a result of the socio-political changes in Central America.
The pattern of Latin American and Caribbean emigration to the north of the continent has been increasing since the end of the 1960s, and become more and more obvious. The countries close to the United States - especially Mexico and the countries of the Caribbean - have maintained their historical links, with emigrant numbers fluctuating with changing economic and political circumstances, and also with changes in United States immigration policies 3.
In 1990 around 8.5 million Latin Americans and persons from the Caribbean were enumerated in the United States census, which is double the figure recorded in 1980. They amounted to 43% of foreigners, compared to only 18% in 1970. Over half of the total population from the region that was resident in the United States at the last census date was Mexican, one quarter was from the Caribbean, mainly Cubans, Jamaicans and Dominicans, 13% from Central America and 11% from South America. Migration to outside the region has both negative and positive impacts: on the one hand there is the loss of professionals, and technical and skilled workers, whose education was provided by the societies of origin; on the other hand, there are the benefits of remittances, which are a growing source of income in many countries of the region. Intraregional migration may contribute to integration, by strengthening commercial, labour and cultural links.
The Central American region is a special case, as in the recent past, migration movements have increased and become much more complex owing to the effect of a combination of economic and socio- political factors. Thus, in addition to the historical labour migration flows between countries of the region - particularly between rural border areas - there are two new phenomenon which are not independent, but rather occur together and are superimposed:
● the forced movements of large sectors of the population as a direct result of armed conflicts, which increased in the 1980s, reinforcing the conditions of inequity that continue to act as an indirect factor of expulsion. These movements continued until the beginning of the last decade and then began to disappear as the peace agreements were established in Nicaragua (1990), El Salvador (1992) and Guatemala (1996). The census data do not indicate their true scale; UNHCR estimates that around two million persons had to leave their homes, moving elsewhere either within their home country or outside of it 4.
● a marked increase in extra-regional migration, which is still continuing today, establishing a new pattern of migration to outside the region as a characteristic feature of the Central American situation. The loss of population as a result of emigration to the north, mainly to the United States and to a lesser extent to Canada and Mexico, increased to such a degree that at the beginning of the 1990s it was more than one million persons, which represents 4.5% of the total Central American population.
3 In November 1986 the Immigration Reform and Control Act (IRCA) was passed, legislation which helped to regularize the immigration status of Latin Americans and to reunite families. This certainly played a role in the significant increase, recorded by the censuses, that occurred between 1980 and 1990
In 1990 there were more than a million Central Americans resident in the United States; this is three times the figure recorded in the 1980 census and almost ten times the figure for 1970. El Salvador showed the greatest increases over both periods: by a factor of 6 between 1970 and 1980, and by a factor of 5 between 1980 and 1990. Emigration to Canada is at a much lower level, but has also been increasing steadily up to the present, mainly consisting of Salvadorans and Guatemalans. It may be concluded from the IMILA data that over the past thirty years the migration patterns of Central America have been progressively changing from intraregional to extra-regional. In fact, the percentage of Central American migrants with a destination country in the same region declined from 50% to 7.5% between 1970 and 1990; the other side of the coin is the increase in the proportion aiming for the north of the continent.
Another special feature of the Central American migration map is the persistence of the flows of Nicaraguans to Costa Rica, although they are on a much smaller scale than the extra-regional currents. Between 1984 and 1997 they at least doubled, increasing their share of the foreign presence: those born in Nicaragua accounted for 52% in 1984 and rose to 73% in 1997, which gives them greater visibility in Costa Rican society. There are additional factors which contribute to a social image that tends to exaggerate the actual scale and numbers of undocumented Nicaraguans: the Multi-purpose Household Survey of 1997 shows that the numbers of these immigrants are increasing in the metropolitan area of San José, and that their participation in the labour market is changing as they enter non-agricultural activities, while an increasing proportion of them have a higher level of education5.
One way of estimating the scale of undocumented persons is the recent migration amnesty that the country offered, and which regularized the status of 165,300 persons from other countries in the subregion.
Lastly, a common problem facing the countries of Central America is how to receive and reintegrate effectively the undocumented migrants who are deported in growing numbers from the United States and Mexico, as a result of restrictions on the entry of Central Americans to those countries. The case of Guatemala is of particular concern as owing to its extensive border with Mexico, it has become a country for the transit, departure and return of migrants in irregular situations. To this is added the need to combat the unscrupulous trafficking in migrants and to make joint efforts to ensure the respect of the human rights of those who find themselves impelled to migrate in order to escape poverty and achieve better living conditions in other countries.
During the 1980s the large-scale, spontaneous and abrupt nature of the forced movements of refugees, asylum-seekers, internally displaced persons and repatriates posed serious challenges to the governments of the receiving and expelling countries, to international organizations and to civil society as a whole. They also highlighted the shortcomings of existing methods and sources for measuring the true scale and characteristics of these movements. These shortcomings are still of topical interest in view of the questions arising about future migration trends and their link with the processes of regional integration and reconstruction, questions which emerged with greater force, in the Central American case, in relation to the probable consequences of recent natural disasters, such as Hurricane Mitch, which devastated the region in October 1998.
As the principal cause of migration is economic, however, even in the absence of emergency situations caused by natural disasters or violent conflicts, population movements are predicted to continue because of the globalization of markets and the persistence of strong inequalities in development models.
5 A recent study on Nicaraguans based on the July 1999 Survey shows similar results with regard to their presence among foreigners and their characteristics. Although this survey shows a higher number of Central Americans of all nationalities, it is impossible to estimate the real scale of the increase owing to the changes made in the sample design in 1999, which probably improved the coverage of small population groups, including migrants (Pisoni, 2000).
Recent, current and future movements in the Americas take place within a changing international scenario from the economic, political and social point of view. The generalization of the market economy, the growing interdependence of the world economy, the strengthening of democratic regimes and the respect for human rights are bringing about a globalization of socioeconomic spaces at the global level and in Latin America, which is affecting not only the exchange of goods, technology and services, but also the movement of persons.
Analysing the migration issue in the context of the economic integration of North America, Simmons shows that, although the phenomena of the contemporary expansion of international trade, cultural links and migration flows are closely interlinked, they are not necessarily related in a harmonious fashion. During the process of adjustment to the new patterns, tensions may arise not only in connection with the vagaries of the labour markets but also with political and social conflicts: for example, the greater ease of communications helps unemployed workers or the victims of political and social conflicts to opt for migration as a solution to their problems; migrants encounter legal barriers to entering their destination countries, especially the poorest and least skilled migrants, who are part of the flows that are the most difficult to regulate; if there is a reduction in the demand for labour in the destination countries, conflicts may arise between the new arrivals from different ethnic groups as they compete to find employment (Simmons, 1996).
The growing complexity of the regional migration dynamic adds new demands to the shortcomings previously detected in the quality and availability of data. These demands are related to the type, characteristics, timeliness and dissemination of the data required as input for decision- making. Very little progress has been made with regard to systematizing migratory data in Latin America, with the unique exception of the IMILA project. There still remains the significant challenge of a thorough analysis of the real scale of international population movements, and their characteristics, causes and implications in the countries affected. This challenge means that a new look at this phenomenon is required, as well as incorporating innovative methodologies to achieve a broader understanding; some of the information requirements emerging from the new regional scenario are listed below:
● The requirements for updated information mean that alternative sources are needed to monitor trends during intercensal periods.
● The issue has to be considered on a broader level, taking into account the characteristics of migrant households and communities, as well as individual behaviour, in order to visualize the role of migration within the family’s life strategies.
● Adequate policies can only be implemented it there is awareness of the many issues related to international migration, so that the effect is evaluated of not only migration policies and initiatives but also those that affect the regulation of the labour market, access to health, education and housing services, etc.;
● A study is needed of the role of migrant networks and institutional networks, which have been expanding in recent years;
● In addition to the knowledge gained on past trends by using traditional methods which identify the act of migration once it has occurred, it would be wise to explore other methods for investigating the emigration potential of different sectors of the population in those countries that have traditionally produced migrants, in order to have information which would help to predict future migration behaviour.
● Innovative methodologies are needed that could measure other forms of temporary and circular movements, which are reversible in nature as there is the expectation of return to the place of origin within a variable timeframe. Such movements are not measured by the censuses or surveys used in the national statistical systems.
● The methodologies used by existing sources to investigate the migration status of persons and their demographic, social and economic characteristics needs to be made compatible so that the data are comparable within and between countries.
● As records of international entries and departures constitute the only source that can measure the dynamics of this phenomenon, whereas other sources measure stocks of migrants, it would be advisable to find alternative methods to estimate flows of migrants.
It might seem over-ambitious to expect to achieve all of these objectives, especially as migration is more complex to measure than other factors affecting demographic dynamics, as the space and time dimension are part of its very definition. It is also the phenomenon which reacts most rapidly to socioeconomic and political changes, showing greater variability than birth and mortality rates over shorter time periods.
As the starting point is a very inadequate situation, there will have to be a gradual process of filling in the information gaps, without losing sight of the breadth of the objectives involved, in order to form a Migration Information System.
Various factors combine to support an optimistic view of the viability of achieving this goal: the recognition on the part of governments and the different subregional authorities of the Americas of the urgent need to have reliable information as a basis for migration policies and initiatives; the involvement of civil society in the migration issue through non-governmental organizations; the accumulation of sufficient experience in the region and the fact that the countries have data collection tools that have not yet been fully exploited in the study of migration.
2.
The concern of governments and regional consultation
organizations and the international recommendations
Recognition of the fact that the migration issue is closely linked to the potential for reconstruction, change and development in the region has been expressed many times by governments and emphasized at numerous international meetings. It is accepted that consensus agreements are needed between the sending and receiving countries in order to deal adequately with this issue.
In 1993, the United Nations Expert Group Meeting on Population Distribution and Migration, which was held at Santa Cruz, Bolivia, agreed, in recommendation No. 37, that the United Nations