Table 1: Selected Economic Data, Sweden 2000-2015 Annual percentage change, except for trade surplus1
Average
2000-2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015b
GDP 3.2 3.4 -0.6 -5.2 6.0 2.7 -0.3 1.2 2.3 3.3
CPI 1.4 2.2 3.4 -0.5 1.2 3.0 0.9 0.0 -0.2 0.0
CPIF 1.7 1.5 2.7 1.7 2.0 1.4 1.0 0.9 0.5 0.9
Trade surplus2 6.7 7.0 6.3 5.8 5.5 4.7 4.9 4.5 3.7 Exports 6.3 4.5 2.0 -14.5 11.9 6.1 1.0 -0.8 3.5 4.0 House prices3 12.1a 12.2 -0.3 3.4 7.7 -0.1 0.8 6.0 10.6 Monetary base 3.2 2.8 46.7 170.5 -0.9 -50.3 7.0 6.4 3.2 Broad money
(M3) 6.4 15.8 12.1 1.3 1.8 3.3 6.7 2.0 4.2
Total credit4 7.5 12.2 11.6 7.7 2.5 5.8 5.0 3.9 5.2 Mortgage credit 14.4 a 12.7 11.8 9.6 9.8 6.8 4.8 5.0 5.8 Notes:
(1) GDP and exports are measured in real terms; other quantities are in nominal terms.
(2) Net exports of goods and services, per cent of GDP.
(3) Valueguard Housing Index, total, annual percentage change, annual average.
(4) Monetary Financial Institutions’ (MFI) lending to the private non-financial sector and the outstand-ing stock of commercial paper and bonds issued by the Swedish private non-financial sector, annual per-centage change, annual average.
(a) Average 2006.
(b) Forecast, Monetary Policy Report October 2015.
Sources: Statistics Sweden, Valueguard (2) and the Riksbank (b).
TABLES AND FIGURES 106
2015/16:RFR7 Table 2: The Executive Board 2010-2015: Membership, Policy Decisions and Votes 2010-2012
2010 Stefan Ingves0Not present0.250.250.250.25 Karolina Ekholm000Reservation0.25Reservation0Reservation0Reservation Lars Nyberg000.250.250.250.25 Barbro Wickman-Parak000.250.250.250.25 Lars EO Svensson-0.25Reservation0Reservation0Reservation0Reservation0Reservation0Reservatio Svante Öberg000.250.250.250.25 Decision000.250.250.250.25 2011 Stefan Ingves0.250.250.2500-0.25 Karolina Ekholm0Reservation0Reservation0Reservation0Reservation-0.25Reservation-0.5Reservatio Lars Nyberg0.250.250.2500-0.25 Barbro Wickman-Parak0.250.250.2500-0.25 Lars EO Svensson0Reservation0Reservation0Reservation0Reservation-0.25Reservation-0.5Reservatio Svante Öberg0.250.250.2500-0.25 Decision0.250.250.2500-0.25 2012 Stefan Ingves-0.2500-0.250-0.25 Karolina Ekholm-0.5Reservation-0.5Reservation-0.5Reservation-0.25Reservation-0.25Reservation-0.25Reservatio Kerstin af Jochnick-0.2500-0.250-0.25 Barbro Wickman-Parak-0.2500-0.250-0.25 Lars EO Svensson-0.5Reservation-0.5Reservation-0.5Reservation-0.5Reservation-0.5Reservation-0.5Reservatio Per Jansson-0.2500-0.250-0.25 Decision-0.2500-0.250-0.25 DecemberFebruaryAprilJune/JulySeptemberOctober Repo rate changeRepo rate pathRepo rate changeRepo rate pathRepo rate changeRepo rate pathRepo rate changeRepo rate pathRepo rate changeRepo rate pathRepo rate changeRepo rat path
TABLES AND FIGURES 107
2015/16:RFR Table 2: The Executive Board 2010-2015: Membership, Policy Decisions and Votes (cont.) 2013-2015 Source: The Riksbank web page
2013 Stefan Ingves00000-0.25 Karolina Ekholm-0.25Reservation-0.25Reservation-0.25Reservation-0.25Reservation-0.25Reservation-0.25 Kerstin af Jochnick00000-0.25 Barbro Wickman-Parak00ResignedResignedResignedResigned Lars EO Svensson-0.5Reservation-0.5ReservationResignedResignedResignedResigned Per Jansson00000-0.25 Martin FlodénNot appointedNot appointed-0.25Reservation-0.25Reservation-0.25Reservation-0.25 Cecilia SkingsleyNot appointedNot appointed000-0.25 Decision00000-0.25 2014 Stefan Ingves00-0.25Reservation0-0.250 Karolina Ekholm0-0.25Reservation-0.50ResignedResigned Kerstin af Jochnick00-0.25Reservation0-0.250 Per Jansson00-0.50-0.250 Martin Flodén0-0.25Reservation-0.50-0.250 Cecilia Skingsley00-0.50-0.250 Decision00-0.500-0.250 2015 July Stefan Ingves-0.1-0.150-0.100 Kerstin af Jochnick-0.1-0.150-0.100 Martin Flodén-0.1A-0.150-0.100 Per Jansson-0.1-0.150-0.100 Henry Ohlsson-0.1-0.1500Reservation00 Cecilia Skingsley-0.1-0.150-0.100 Decision-0.1-0.150-0.100 A) Reservation against the decision to buy government bonds.
Repo rate changeRepo rate pathRepo rate changeRepo rate pathRepo rate changeRepo rate pathRepo rate changeRepo rate pathRepo rate changeRepo rate path Repo rate changeRepo rate pathRepo rate change
FebruaryAprilJune/JulySeptemberOctober Repo rate change FebruaryMarch (non-scheduled)April Repo rate changeRepo rate pathRepo rate changeRepo rate pathRepo rate changeRepo rate pathRepo rate path SeptemberOctober Repo rate changeRepo rat path December Repo rat path
Table 3: Various Forecasts for CPIF Inflation, January 2013 to March 2015 Forecasts with horizons of one to three months for the Riksbank
Source: Löf, Mårten, “Recent Inflation Outcomes and Forecasts,” Economic Commentaries, the Riks-bank, No. 4, 2015, May 7, Table 1
Figure 1: Riksbank Repo Rate 2005-2015 Per cent, daily observations
Source: The Riksbank
-1 0 1 2 3 4 5
-1 0 1 2 3 4 5
05 07 09 11 13 15
Figure 2: GDP Growth, Sweden 2005-2015
Annual percentage change, seasonally adjusted quarterly data
Source: Statistics Sweden
Figure 3: CPIF Inflation, Sweden 2005-2015 Annual percentage change, monthly data
Source: Statistics Sweden
-9 -6 -3 0 3 6 9
-9 -6 -3 0 3 6 9
05 07 09 11 13 15
-1 0 1 2 3 4
-1 0 1 2 3 4
05 07 09 11 13 15
Figure 4: Unemployment Rate, Sweden 2005-2015 Per cent, three-month moving average of seasonally adjusted data
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 5: Trade-weighted Nominal Exchange Rate (KIX) 2005-2015 Index, 1992-11-18 = 100, monthly averages of daily observations
Note. KIX refers to an aggregate of countries that are important for Sweden's international transactions.
Sources: National sources and the Riksbank
5,5 6,5 7,5 8,5 9,5
5,5 6,5 7,5 8,5 9,5
05 07 09 11 13 15
90 100 110 120 130 140
90 100 110 120 130 140
05 07 09 11 13 15
Figure 6: Level of House Prices, Sweden 2005-2015 Index, January 2005 = 100, seasonally adjusted monthly data
Sources: Valueguard and the Riksbank
Figure 7: Household Debt/Disposable Income, Sweden 2005-2015 Per cent of disposable income, quarterly data
Note. Households' total debts as a share of their disposable incomes totalled over the past four quarters.
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
100 150 200 250
100 150 200 250
05 07 09 11 13 15
130 140 150 160 170 180
130 140 150 160 170 180
05 07 09 11 13 15
Figure 8: Riksbank Meeting Time Line
Figure 9. Riksbank Repo Rate Path and Market Expectations 2010-2015
Phase 1 Recovery and Tightening
Figure 9. Riksbank Repo Rate Path and Market Expectations 2010-2015 (cont.)
Phase 2 Pause for Thought
Figure 9. Riksbank Repo Rate Path and Market Expectations 2010-2015 (cont.) Phase 3 Disappointment and Easing
Figure 9. Riksbank Repo Rate Path and Market Expectations 2010-2015 (cont.)
Phase 4 Another Pause for Thought
Figure 9. Riksbank Repo Rate Path and Market Expectations 2010-2015 (cont.)
Phase 5 Going to Zero
Figure 9. Riksbank Repo Rate Path and Market Expectations 2010-2015 (cont.)
Figure 9. Riksbank Repo Rate Path and Market Expectations 2010-2015 (cont.) Phase 6 Going Negative
Source: The Riksbank
Figure 10: Riksbank’s Forecasts for Foreign Economies 2005-2015
(The notes for Figure 10 follow the third panel on the following page.)
Figure 10: Riksbank’s Forecasts for Foreign Economies 2005-2015 (cont.)
Note. Foreign GDP growth, inflation and policy rates are TCW-weighted for forecasts up until 2012 and KIX-weighted from 2013 onwards. Outcomes extend up to the end of the first quarter of 2015 for GDP and up to the end of the second quarter for inflation and policy rates.
Source: Aranki, Ted and André Reslow, “An Assessment of the Riksbank’s International Forecasts,”
Economic Commentaries, the Riksbank, No. 14, 2015, November 4, Figure 2
Figure 11: Accuracy and Bias in Various Forecasts for Foreign GDP and In-flation 2007-2014
(The notes for Figure 11 follow the second panel on the following page.)
Figure 11: Accuracy and Bias in Various Forecasts for Foreign GDP and In-flation 2007-2014 (cont.)
Note. KIX-2 refers to KIX weighting of the euro area and United States. CE=Consensus Economics, FiD=Ministry of Finance, KI=National Institute of Economic Research, LO=Swedish Trade Union Con-federation, NDA=Nordea, RB=The Riksbank, SHB=Svenska Handelsbanken, SN=Confederation of Swedish Enterprise and SWED=Swedbank.
Source: Aranki, Ted and André Reslow, “An Assessment of the Riksbank’s International Forecasts,”
Economic Commentaries, the Riksbank, No. 14, 2015, November 4, Figure 5
Figure 12: CPI, CPIF and CPIF excluding energy, 2005-2015 Annual percentage change
Source: Statistics Sweden
Figure 13: CPIF Forecasts and Outturns, January 2011 to March 2015 Annual percentage change
Source: Löf, Mårten, “Recent Inflation Outcomes and Forecasts,” Economic Commentaries, the Riks-bank, No. 4, 2015, May 7, Figure 2
Figure 14: Successive Forecasts in 2011-2012 for CPIF Inflation in 2012 Annual percentage change, annual averages
Note. Other analysts refers to the Swedish Ministry of Finance, the National Institute of Economic Re-search, the Swedish Trade Union Confederation (LO), Nordea, SEB, Svenska Handelsbanken, the Con-federation of Swedish Enterprise and Swedbank. The CPIF is the CPI with a fixed mortgage rate.
Source: Account of Monetary Policy 2012, the Riksbank, Figure 4.2
Figure 15: Successive Forecasts in 2013-2014 for CPIF Inflation in 2014 Annual percentage change, annual averages
Note. Other analysts refers to Swedish Ministry of Finance, the National Institute of Economic Research, Swedish Trade Union Confederation (LO), Nordea, SEB, Svenska Handelsbanken, the Confederation of Swedish Enterprise and Swedbank. The CPIF is the CPI with a fixed mortgage rate.
Source: Account of Monetary Policy 2014, the Riksbank, Figure 2.21
-1 0 1 2 3
-1 0 1 2 3
Jan 13 Jul 13 Jan 14 Jul 14
CPIF 2014 Other analysts The Riksbank
Figure 16: Accuracy and Bias in Forecasts of CPIF Inflation, Various Fore-casters 2008-2014
Note. FiD = Swedish Ministry of Finance, HUI = HUI Research AB, KI = National Institute of Eco-nomic Research, LO = Swedish Trade Union Confederation, RB = the Riksbank, SHB = Svenska Han-delsbanken, SN = Confederation of Swedish Enterprise and SWED = Swedbank.
Source: Account of Monetary Policy 2014, the Riksbank, Figure 4.2
Figure 17: Accuracy and Bias in Forecasts of GDP Growth, Various Fore-casters 2007-2014
Note. See Figure 16 for an explanation of the abbreviations.
Source: Account of Monetary Policy 2014, the Riksbank, Figure 4.3
-0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1
-0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1
KI LO RB FiD NORDEA SHB SEB SWED SN
Accuracy (Adjusted mean absolute error)
Systematic error (Mean error)
-0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.2
-0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.2
RB SEB SN NORDEA SHB SWED KI HUI FiD
Accuracy (Adjusted mean absolute error) Systematic error (Mean error)
Figure 18: Accuracy and Bias in Forecasts of Unemployment, Various Fore-casters 2007-2014
Note. See Figure 16 for an explanation of the abbreviations.
Source: Account of Monetary Policy 2014, the Riksbank, Figure 4.4
-0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2
-0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2
Accuracy (Adjusted mean absolute error)
Systematic error (Mean error)
ANNEX 1