Política de Ajuste Estructural - Periodo de Estabilización 1986 -

Rapid population growth is practically unavoidable in Pakistan, at least in the near future. Even though we assume that Pakistan will manage to achieve replacement level fertility by 2035-40, the population would grow 174 million in 2005-10 to 288 millions in 2055-60 according to the median of the predictive distribution. Figure 3.4 shows that the projected total population and selected prediction interval of Pakistan at the national and provincial level from 2005-10 to 2055-10. The median of the distribution shows that the population of Pakistan reaches 249 million in 2035-40 with an 80 percent prediction interval between 234 and 266, and in 2055-60, the size of the total population of Pakistan would reach 288 million with 80 percent prediction interval between [246.9, 334.9]. The Punjab and Balochistan province, which has a diverse and heterogeneous characteristics, are likely to follow the similar trends. Owing to an earlier fertility transition, both provinces will have an identical speed

Figure 3.4: Total Population of Pakistan with selected prediction Intervals:2010-2060; Source: Own Calculation

of convergence and a higher probability that the population will start to decline in 2055-60 as compared to other provinces. The population of Punjab would grow by fifty percent during 2005-10 to 2055-60–from 101 million in 2005-10 to 160 million in 2055-60. The median of the predictive distribution pointed out that population of Balochistan will be at 12.3 million in 2055-60 with an 80 percent prediction interval between [10.1, 14.9]. The Sindh province which is the second largest province (in population size) in Pakistan with a large business hub and active seaport (Karachi). The population of Sindh estimated at 40.6 million in 2005-2010, and median of the distribution demonstrates that population would increased to 74.1 million in 2055-60 with an 80 percent prediction interval between [61.4, 89.0].

Figure 3.5 also shows the total population of KPK and Balochistan from 2010 to 2060. If KPK population follows the median of the predictive distribution, this will accounts for a 38 percent increase in the total population over the period of fifty years from 2010-2060-from 24 million in 2005-10 to 40 million in 2055-60 with an 80 per- cent prediction interval between [32.8, 48.1]. A significant proportion of population growth during this period will be due to population momentum. The trend of the total population over time in Balochistan is quite surprising. The Balochistan, the largest province in Pakistan (44 percent of the total land area in Pakistan), consists of 5 percent of the total population of Pakistan (estimated total population of Balochis- tan was 7.6 million in 2005-2010). Figure 3.5 also shows the population change in Balochistan from 2005-10 to 2055-60. According to the median of the predictive distribution, the total population of Balochistan will be 12.3 million in 2055-60 and falls between [10.1, 14.9] with 80 percent confidence interval. Although, Balochis- tan has considered developing province in Pakistan. Human development index for Balochistan (HDI: 0.555) was low in 2005 in Pakistan. Low level of literacy and ed- ucational attainment, particularly for women and fundamental tribal systems, are the major issues concerning the development framework. The PDHS 2006-07 reveals the stunning results that fertility transition in Balochistan was well advanced as compered

Figure 3.5: Total Population of Pakistan at Provincial level and selected prediction Intervals:2010-2060; Source: Own Calculation

to other province in Pakistan, except for Punjab and our projections also point out that the probability that the population will start to decline will be highest in Balochistan. Until recently, the causes of fertility transition has not veiled in Balochistan. How- ever, it is possibly correlated with a level of women education and socio-economic development.

Although Pakistan was one of the first countries in South Asia to have initiated a fam- ily planning program in 1965, unprecedented population growth has been observed in Pakistan in the past and will likely be experienced in the future. Our projections show a 31 percent probability that Pakistan’s population will start to decline in 2055-60. For different provinces, the probability of start to decline will vary substantially.

Figure 3.6 shows the probability that the Pakistan population size at the national and provincial level would start to decline at or before the indicated year. It sheds the light to the fact that there is around 2 percent chance that the peak of the Pakistan population would be reached by 2035-40, and around 31 percent chance that it would reach by 2055-60. In other words, until 2035, the population size of Pakistan will not turn down due to population momentum. The highest probability that the population will start to decline is observed in Balochistan. For instance, 43 percent chance that the population of Balochistan will start to decline in 2055-60. It implies that internal migration and high mortality are the main drivers responsible for the higher probability of decline in Balochistan. There is around 3 percent chance that the peak of the population of Punjab will be reached by 2035-40 and 40 percent chance by 2055-60. For Sindh, the probability of reaching the peak of the population in the next two decades will be very low and even lower in 2060 as compared to other provinces. In 2055-60, there is a 26

Figure 3.6: Forecasted Probability that population will start to decline at or before the indi- cated date; Source: Own Calculation

percent probability that the population size of Sindh will start to decline. There is a significant improvement of health and education level in KPK in the past two decades which shown that the probability of decline in 2055-60 reaches 36 percent as high as from Sindh and lower from Punjab.