Polinomio de Taylor de orden 2 Matriz hessiana

The issue of the meaningfulness of reproductive preference data has not yet been

resolved. Desired family size data, particularly from developing countries, have been

criticized for fatalistic responses and forced responses to questions to which the

respondent really has no answer. But in the 1990 KAP survey the rate of non­

response was found to be very low. Observations from the field during the

qualitative data collection were also convincing; respondents were able to give

spontaneous responses to the ideal family size question and provided valid reasons

for choosing their ideal family sizes.

Desired family size, ideal family size and desire for more children were found to be

similar in the two areas, indicating that the Family Planning and Health Services

Program has had no effect on reproductive preferences. Two contrasting perspectives

have been advanced to explain the demographic role of the Bangladesh family

planning initiatives. The diffusion, or ideational change, perspective (Cleland and

Wilson 1987) argues that programs have introduced new ideas, leading to new

motives, norms and beliefs. By fostering this process of diffusion they have played a

critical role in introducing demographic change. On the other hand the structural

shapers of reproductive motives. In this view programs facilitate transitions, but are

not underlying determinants of reproductive change.

The results presented here support the structural rather than the ideational change

perspective. For the latter to be the more appropriate perspective one would expect a

significantly larger reduction in desired family size, ideal family size and desire for

more children in the treatment area than in the comparison area. It appears that the

government family planning program (through the media), operating similarly in the

two areas, along with improvements in transport (upgrading of non-metal roads in

rural areas) and communications (access to radio and television, usually without

owning these items) might have influenced reproductive preferences to decline.

Moreover, ideal family sizes in the treatment and comparison areas were found to be

similar to those in the area adjoining these two areas.

The desired family sizes were found to be associated with current family size in the

two areas, but not with current age. When parities are controlled, there is no strong

evidence that the younger women reported smaller family size desires than older

women. One possible explanation is that women's preferences have changed little

over time, the other is that women's preferences do change but they change almost

equally in all age groups.

At the multivariate level, except for contraceptive use in both areas and education of

woman in the treatment area, neither mean desired family size nor percentage

wanting more children varied remarkably by sociocultural categories for any group

of women (aged 15-49 and either under age 25 or with family size three). A lower

desire for more children among educated women indicates the important link of

education with modernization, exposure to the outside world and female autonomy.

Although never-users consistently reported higher reproductive preferences than

preferences across categories of several sociocultural variables suggest that factors

responsible for small family-size preferences work at the societal level and that

preferences are influenced by broader sociocultural change.

Studies conducted until the early 1980s documented motivation for many rather than

few children, but the present study found the opposite. Mean desired family size was

found to be slightly over three and women prefer usually to have two sons. In the

qualitative interviews it was reported that an increase in the direct economic cost of

children, for example food, clothing and education, is mainly responsible for small

family-size desires. These days women do not believe that many children provide

strength for the family and security for old age; rather quality of children is believed

to be important. Moreover, it was reported that the intergenerational relationship

between parents and children is changing; the costs of having many children are

beginning to outweigh the benefits. Motivations emphasizing quality rather than

number of children were absent in the past (Cain 1977; Khuda 1977; Arthur &

McNicoll 1978). In this connection Nag and Duza (1988) concluded that the new

small-family norm in the Matlab study area is mainly aspiration-induced rather than

poverty-induced, although qualitative data from the present study did suggest

Reproductive preferences, contraception and abortion in the treatment and comparison areas: 1984 and 1990

5.1 Introduction

Following Davis and Blake's (1956) model of fertility determinants, Bongaarts

(1978, 1982) identified four important intermediate variables: proportion married,

contraception, induced abortion and postpartum infecundability. These intermediate

variables operate directly in producing variations in fertility in a society. Of the four

intermediate variables, increased contraceptive use has been an important proximate

determinant responsible for fertility transition in much of Asia (Bongaarts 1993;

Caldwell 1993).

A huge unmet need for contraception was first noticed in developing countries

during the KAP surveys of the 1960s and 1970s. To meet this need many

governments adopted family planning programs to reduce population growth. As

these unmet needs were calculated from data on fertility preferences, it is important

to determine the extent to which fertility preference affects contraceptive use.

According to Bongaarts (1992), fertility preference data are of little policy

significance unless it can be shown that women who say they want to stop

childbearing manage to implement this preference through greater use of

contraception.

There are two objectives for the analysis in this chapter. The first is to examine the

relationship between reproductive preference and contraception. More specifically,

intensity of desire for more children and contraceptive use. It examines the effect of

demographic and sociocultural factors on contraceptive use: for those who wanted no

more children and those who wanted another child after an interval of at least one

year; did the effect of demographic and sociocultural factors change over time? The

second objective is to examine the relationship between reproductive preference and

induced abortion, and whether that relationship holds for demographic and

sociocultural subgroups.