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4. RESULTADOS: ARIMA CLÁSICO

4.2 MODELIZACIÓN VÍA ARIMA

4.2.4 Predicción de modelos ARIMA

Suggestion; is easy to understand – it’s just the idea that when you speak to someone the communication is semantically processed; that people identify what the sentence structure is attempting to communicate; and then brings to mind associations (schemata) upon mention of the words. For example; if you think of sucking on a lemon; notice how you’re the taste would be, as the thought starts spontaneously. Our brains are wired to recognize change in environment – they take input from the world and bring to mind relevant information in order to be ready and prepared for future events.

Hypnosis effects can be performed in the waking state, as well as with formal hypnosis (David Elman, Ormond McGill) McGill notices that when he instructs suggestions to people unknowing of him being a hypnotist or the possibility that they are being influenced they still respond accordingly, he gives the example of him speaking to a bus driver while he’s driving “An odd thing has just

happened, you are unable to tell me the name of the next

street” your instruction cues the understanding of forgetting, while at the same time making a request for him to recall the name of the next street; giving the bus driver a sense of amnesia. (Ormond McGill: 1996, p51;)

For a suggestion to be effective (i.e. to achieve the desired result) namely making a person hold the idea you

prescribe, “It must be that the subject, wants to believe it to be possible, or at least doesn’t object to the possibility” of when you mention – for if the subject attempts to recall other schemata in an attempt to disrupt the concepts you bring to mind; then they will be occupied with those concerns and not the perspective you illustrate; Ormond McGill continues “A suggestion is accepted when it is not countered by other suggestions… if we can get” a person to focus on an idea “then instinctively a behaviour or attitude is quickly carried out”

Our minds are active; when we come into contact with stimuli we readily engage with it. “The two facets of mind, conscious and subconscious, are in perpetual interaction. If we consciously think a thought (idea) and cause it to be accepted by the subconscious, the idea will spontaneously go into action to produce its effect. If it is a beautiful thought, we are so much the better if it is a diseased thought we are so much the worse, because, unlike consciousness, the subconscious has no selective power.

Whatever is presented to it is accepted and automatically acted upon. It is in the process”

Likewise; it is not just pains and pleasures that we can be suggested to feel; if we hear a joke, we laugh

spontaneously equally if we see a picture of a sexual scene;

we inevitably are prone to further sexual stimulation as a result. That is to say; suggestion isn’t just the words said by a hypnotist, but a sign for food outlet questions whether we are hungry – and perhaps causes the discovery of reasons why.

This is the most important rule of demonstrable hypnosis;

“Whenever an idea is offered, ‘provided it isn’t countered’

it activates a network of associations; and will cause the exact response you outline. We shall demonstrate the second most important concept in demonstrable hypnosis through the previous example; if you see a sign

advertising a food outlet, and you question you’re hungry, to discover you’re not hungry at all then you will hold that schemata (I’m full) which will become the foreground i.e.

most prominent network of associations, rather than the consideration (I’m hungry) – which is only given minute attention.

In other words; if you’re going to present an idea to someone, it’s often simpler to illustrate if it somehow connects to the persons situation. i.e. “you feel full, but you could do with some sugar (i.e. a dessert) or a coffee”

would be an acceptable way of walking with the subjects evidence (I’m full) but while connecting it causally to the idea of needing further nourishment.

Another way you could prevent someone finding

objections to your suggestions i.e. alternative beliefs to the ones you specify; is by not explaining precisely what you are attempting to create in the subjects mind until the last moment; i.e. you could slowly increase the idea of food being tasty, or vitamins being good for you, sugar giving you energy, in a series of messages; hopefully not allowing the subject to question their hungry and discover their fullness – Until finally after these series of messages you say “Fancy something to eat?” and then you get the response of “Yes.” Because this way you’ve primed all the relevant schemata to such an extent that when the person finally finds counter evidence “I’m full” its dramatically outweighed by all the other already ‘brought to mind’

beliefs about eating; and never receives purposeful attention.

To explain the concept of ‘pacing and leading’ further;

Ormond McGill refers to the importance of ‘Timing’ when it comes to using suggestion; he states “Proper timing of the presentation of a suggestion by the hypnotist is important. In other words, you do not usually want to tell the subject that something is happening before it has happened. A good rule is that if you see indications that a certain reaction is going to take place at any moment, then you can suggest that it is taking place. Otherwise, and often this is preferable, you should introduce the event as a future possibility and work up to its occurrence more or less gradually.”

We’ve briefly touched upon how important it is to keep repeating the concept; but often using different ways of portraying the priming of the ideas; by repeating “your arm is lifting”, “it’s getting lighter”, “moving up by itself”

then you prime the idea of the arm lifting and the

behaviour, namely an arm rising upwards, is carried out outside of the individuals sense of conscious-will.

One of the most annoying traits I see in new hypnotists is that they mention lots of ideas “your arm is rising as if like a feather”, “it’s like a robots arm going up”, sometimes the idea of the arm being lots of different things i.e. priming the idea of a feather and the idea of a robot are not mutually compatible; and they can detract into thought about the comparison between robots and feathers – which is an undesired consequence of your choice of phrasing – wherever you direct the attention it goes.

That is to say; that whatever is mostly primed – brought to association in the mind; activated is the strongest, and regardless of conscious will or volition the person cannot consider outside the realm of those activated attitudes, beliefs, memories, associations. “In the conflict between the will and the imagination, the imagination will win.”

This is because “Will is under the direction of our consciousness; and, for it to operate

effectively and efficiently, it must be in harmony with the ideas rooted in the subconscious” that all our conscious mind does is have the ability to recall, alter and modify

present ideas from the subconscious; but if one idea is easier to recall than another from the subconscious, the conscious mind will recall that one (the easiest). Ormond McGill, and Daniel Kahneman’s (2011) law of the easiest heuristic.

This leads onto the next point; which is often a hypnotist will connect ideas “As I count down from 10-1, with each number I say you will go deeper into trance”, “as that arm moves up higher into the air by itself, the higher it goes, the deeper you go into trance” which by implication implies “you are following my suggestions more and more, you can only focus on the ideas I prescribe to you”.

However just as importantly is the linking of routines; for it might be that “as your arm rises by itself when reaches a certain point it will remain there” thereby connecting the arm’s movement to the next consequence as if it’s in a sequence. For example the typical thing that I might do is have someone’s hand become stuck to a table top; and then say “In a moment when I tap the back of your hand it will lift, the reason it will lift is because instantly and

immediately you will forget your name, you will have no idea what your name is until I say otherwise, “ (tap back of hand) “I tap the back of your hand and it lifts, and you have no idea what you name is, the idea is stuck”

That’s pretty much it for hypnosis theory if I met someone in a bar and they wanted to hypnotize this evening those

are the exact points I tell them and then they proceed to hypnotize strangers; it’s that simple. However you’re probably wondering “Ok where do I begin? What do I say to a stranger to begin the process?”

Ok; there are two important sequences in meeting someone who you are going to hypnotize in the near future.

To establish rapport; “Hi I’m Vince, what’s your name?”;

“Ha-ha, you know I used to have a good friend with that name” (Establish commonality) your aiming to

communicate that you have things in common; that you are similar people, but for whatever reason you deserve respect.

Now you want to mention hypnosis – the way I mentioned hypnosis for most of my years as a hypnotist would be to say “What do you do?” and the person may reply with their hobbies, interests, education, or career accordingly;

unless they don’t have any ambition and then you will encounter a problem – but don’t worry too much about that, you simply are looking to portray that you have some interest in the person before it gets onto the topic of you being a hypnotist; they usually in response ask “What do you do?” to which I reply “I’m a hypnotist” they say

“really?” either followed with “I don’t believe in that”,

“that’s so cool” or “I’m not sure about that” and then you continue to say “I will show you something, like hypnosis but not hypnosis” this gives you the excuse to begin

showing them suggestion based routines i.e. use

suggestion on them to affect their mind but without their consent for hypnosis.

The reason why often it’s a good idea not to mention hypnosis; is simply because people often have mixed feelings about hypnosis, especially when confronted by a strange hypnotist in a bar – so whether you call what your about to do with the person a ‘hypnosis demonstration’ or just a psychological thing is completely down to you, but in no way affects the successfulness of the practice, the only things that affect the practice are the concepts

outlined in this book, which mainly focus on attention, and priming.

Now we’ve got their consent, we deliver a short description of how the human mind works, i.e. we are prescribing why they are participating, and what they are likely to expect from participation.

Question: “Have you ever been hypnotized before?” – this implies that this is a likely scenario in others you meet, and that you think it’s likely that they may have been

hypnotized before – i.e. creating the plausibility that being hypnotized is likely for them, this focuses their

concentration on the process – it allows them to take it somewhat seriously. Whatever they say you agree with

“That’s great you have”, “Cool so I’ll show you a few things that you’ll find interesting”

Brief description of what it is; also known as the pretalk;

“Most people think hypnosis is a little unusual, but it’s not so different from other experiences that you’ve had in the course of everyday living”, “Nothing will be done to embarrass you in any way, and we won’t pry into your personal secrets”, “This is an opportunity to learn a little more about your mind”, “The idea is just to pay attention to what is going on, and try to have the experiences that are suggested to you”, “Don’t pretend and make

something happening that isn’t and don’t hold back from something that seems to be occurring”, “This is about your experience”

The pretalk causes the way the person uses their attention during the activity- it’s instructional; you are telling the person to listen to you, and not to think about unrelated things, to focus on the process.

From this point onwards; you are ready to begin to perform a suggestion routine; if you’ve followed all the rules thus far you are more professional than many a hypnotist I’ve met. However rules are to be broken, the process listed above is literally to communicate exactly what kind of experience you need the person to have to feel the effect of the ideas you present, drop bits

accordingly for speediness, for dramatic effect, or to prevent the person needlessly considering irrelevant

points about the process if you already understand the person to be ready to listen.

Before you go ahead and perform a hypnosis routine – you probably want to know what routines are open to you, what routine should you perform first? What are the beginnings and limitations of hypnosis?

Hypnosis – can make pretty much anyone, do pretty much anything – is a pretty good definition of what’s possible – people can be made to be “happy, or sad, angry or pleased;

open minded or not, proud or humble, bold or timid, hopeful or despondent.” Also people can be made to “sing, to shout, to laugh, to cry, to dance, to shoot, to fish, to preach, to pray, to recite a poem or expound a theory”

Ormond McGill.

Hopefully you get the idea; anything someone could pretend to do, have done in the past, has felt in the past, or could potentially do – can be done. A hypnotized person is like an actor; but who has forgotten they are acting – they are the role they have in their mind; the associations they are recalling are there so profoundly that others cannot be considered (which is actually a normal part of human life).

You can make people forget things; such as their name, and what their life is like, you can make people forget periods of their life, or the entire thing altogether. You can have people hallucinate things that aren’t there i.e. a giant

fire breathing dragon in the room, or alter the things they see i.e. all the men in the room are completely naked.

A person could drink from an empty glass, and be deluded that it contains the strongest alcohol of their choice in limitless supply, and following this you may find the subject becomes (or at least believes themselves to be) extremely drunk – if suddenly they believed that this glass contains baby poo, then suddenly you might find that the subject proceeds to be sick.

Important suggestions for a

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