Presentación de resultados

By the late 1980s, Lorenz, like Mandelbrot, had moved from an obscure, specialized corner of science into the mainstream and even the popular imagination. The affirmation of Lorenz’s work by his peers gradually arrived in the form of a number of awards, including the Carl-Gustaf Rossby Research Medal of the American Meteorological Society (1969), election to the National Academy of Sciences (1975), and the Crafoord Prize of the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences (1983).

In 1991, Lorenz was awarded the Kyoto Prize for his work in establishing “the theoretical basis of weather and climate predict- ability, as well as the basis for computer-aided atmospheric physics and meteorology.” The Kyoto committee went on to cite Lorenz’s best-known achievement: “in discovering ‘deterministic chaos,’ a principle which has profoundly influenced a wide range of basic sciences and brought about one of the most dramatic changes in mankind’s view of nature since Sir Isaac Newton.”

Even though he is now in his late eighties, Lorenz still works in his office at MIT several days a week. In 2005, he published two

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There is a tendency for any theory that is both original and far- reaching to expand to fill the available space in scientific and popular discourse. For example, Norbert Wiener’s cybernetics and Claude Shannon’s information theory (both developed in the 1940s) had become popular buzzwords by the 1950s, being applied not only within the engineering field where they had originated but also in psychology, social science, and even busi- ness management.

In order to become a fad, a theory must offer intriguing but grasp- able ideas that look like they can be applied widely. In the process of applying the ideas, however, they tend to become less concrete and more metaphorical. For example, Shannon used the term information in a specific technical sense that did not refer to the actual content of a message. In popular discussion, however, “information theory” became associated with general ideas such as “information is power” or later “the Information Age.”

By the time a new theory is in general circulation, the question is not whether it is right or wrong but whether it is being distorted. In the book Introducing Chaos, mathematician Ian Stewart suggests that

The term “chaos” has escaped its original bounds, and in doing so has to some extent become devalued. To many people, it is no more than a new and trendy term for “random.” Take some system with no obvious pattern, declare it to be an example of chaos, and suddenly it is living on the intellectual frontier instead of being boring old statistics again. Chaos has become a metaphor, but far too often the wrong metaphor.

Another mathematician, Peter Allen, is quoted as suggesting that the chaotic aspect of complex systems is being overemphasized: “In reality, the important aspect is the origin and evolution of structure and organization in complex systems—not the trivial occurrence of sensitivity in strange attractors.” However, Allen goes on to suggest that “chaos may be used in nature to provide ‘noise’ with which to maintain adaptability and surprise.”

There is no doubt, however, that ideas from chaos theory (and the larger field of complex emergent systems) continue to provide important tools for research in a variety of fields.

scientific papers, “Designing Chaotic Models” and “A Look at Some Details of the Growth of Initial Uncertainties.”

Chronology

1917 Edward Lorenz is born on May 23 in West Hartford, Connecticut

1938 Lorenz receives his bachelor’s degree in math from Dartmouth College

1940 Lorenz receives his master’s degree in math from Harvard University

1943 Lorenz earns a master’s degree in meteorology at MIT

1942–46 Lorenz serves as a weather forecaster for the U.S. Army Air Corps during World War II

1948 Having returned to MIT, Lorenz receives a doctorate in meteorology

1948–55 Lorenz is on the staff of the MIT department of meteorol- ogy; he also takes leaves of absence for research or teaching at Lowell Observatory in Flagstaff, Arizona, and at various meteorological research institutes

1963 Lorenz publishes his paper on “Deterministic Nonperiodic Flow,” formulating what came to be known as chaos theory 1972 Lorenz’s talk at the American Association for the Advancement

of Science coins the term butterfl y effect

1993 Lorenz publishes his popular book The Essence of Chaos

Further Reading

Books

Gleick, James. Chaos: Making a New Science. New York: Penguin Books, 1987.

A very readable and engaging account of the development of chaos theory, including its development from Lorenz’s work with weather and its relationship to Mandelbrot’s fractals.

Lorenz, Edward. The Essence of Chaos. Seattle: University of Washington Press, 1993.

A popular book that expands on three of Lorenz’s lectures. Lorenz explained how he discovered chaotic phenomena (particularly in weather) and developed his theories.

Sardar, Ziauddin, and Iwona Abrams. Introducing Chaos. New York: Totem Books, 1999.

An artistically illustrated guide to the key persons and concepts in the development of chaos theory, including numerous quotes from math- ematicians and scientists.

Article

Lorenz, Edward. “Deterministic Nonperiodic Flow.” Journal of

Atmospheric Science 20 (1963): 130–141.

Key paper describing systems that are “sensitively dependent on initial conditions” and that converge on certain “attractors.”

Web Site

Miguel de Campos, António. “Lorenz Atractor.” URL: http://to- campos.planetaclix.pt/fractal/lorenz_eng.html. Accessed on June 22, 2006.

Interactive Java applet that generates Lorenz atractors based on the user’s clicks.

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