PRIMEROS ELEMENTOS PARA UNA REFLEXIÓN CRÍTICA

To understand the future development of the Upper Mersey Estuary, the plans and visions made by stakeholders had to be critically evaluated. Part of this critical analysis was a review of the strategic documents developed and published by the planning departments of Halton Borough Council and Warrington Borough Council. The identification and anticipation of problems and opportunities was carried out for the Upper Mersey Estuary, as these elements can be considered to be important in the development of future management plans.

This analysis aimed to generate new knowledge regarding three main topics that are recognised in Objectives 1 and 2:

1) The areas of core change: the thematic areas that have been identified in the core strategies, which form the basis of the future development plans in the boroughs. This information helped to establish an idea of how the borough might develop in the long-term.

2) The triggers of change that influence the future of the estuary: The collection of triggers of change were identified and analysed regarding their applicability in the Upper Mersey Estuary.

3) The environmental concerns and management of the boroughs: The aim was to review the documents with a focus on the natural environment. This included the perception of environmental key terms such as climate change, sustainability, green spaces, any mentioning of ecosystem services and their location in the boroughs.

The critical evaluation of the documents was carried out with the following criteria in mind:

 The core strategies were the main strategic documents regarding future changes and planning for Halton Borough Council and Warrington Borough Council. Supplement documentation is listed as appropriate.

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 The documents were analysed to identify areas of change and core topics which might influence developments in the Upper Mersey Estuary. It was not the aim to list the strategies and objectives of the councils, but rather to identify how this information can be incorporated into different futures of the study site.

 The administrative area was recognised to go beyond the study area of the Upper Mersey Estuary: changes that were recognised around the estuary were included in the analysis to a certain extent on a case-by-case basis. The spatial extent of the analysis covered the town centres of Runcorn, Widnes and Warrington.

 The provision and change of ecosystem services was considered in the analysis although no direct use of the term ‘ecosystem service’ could be identified. For example, the increase of recreational area through land use changes was considered to describe an ecosystem service.

In order to validate the results of the review of the strategic documents, the criteria listed above provided transparency in this element of the research, which was based on case-specific data. In coherence with the theory of post-positivism outlined in section 3.2, the researcher had to appreciate the construction of different aspects of this socio-ecological system, in order to understand the complexity of it (Noor, 2008). The formulation of core topics and criteria enabled a consistent review of the literature and provides the necessary guidance on which elements can be included in the analysis.

3.6.3.1. A SWOT Analysis as part of the review of strategic documents

A SWOT analysis as carried out for both boroughs as part of the view of their respective strategic documents. It identified the strengths (S), weaknesses (W), opportunities (O), and threats (T) of the respective borough. SWOT analyses were first developed in a business context (Hill & Westbrook, 1997) and have remained popular as a tool for planning, as well as policy and decision-making (Marilyn & Judy, 2010).

The analysis was based on the status quo of the boroughs, i.e. the borough’s reality, which is described in the strategic document. This information supported

68 the understanding of the boroughs’ future and the possibilities that arise from the core topics. Referring to the main topics identified for the analysis of the core documents described in the previous section, the SWOT analysis was used to collect information on the core areas and triggers of change that can be identified for the two boroughs.

3.6.3.2. Environmental Management within the Boroughs

The review of strategic documents aimed to identify a variety of potential triggers of change that will influence the environmental management of the Upper Mersey Estuary in the future. The issues and elements of environmental management addressed in the planning documents were identified to give an idea about how the natural environment is captured in the core strategies of the boroughs.

Six keywords were identified, covering the natural environment and its management in the borough. The identified keywords were counted in the text of the core strategy documents of Halton and Warrington Borough Council and enabled an identification of potential foci of environmental management within the study area. The keywords were defined in Table 6.

The environmental management aspirations, highlighted in the core strategy documents, gave insights in the future management ideas of the boroughs. Therefore, information could be collected to inform future scenarios of the estuary. The identified keywords created a thorough overview of the elements addressed in the management of the natural environment in the estuary.

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Table 6 Keywords used in the analysis of aspects of environmental management in Halton Borough Council and Warrington Borough Council.

Keyword Description

Climate Change The effects of climate change are varied and can include challenges in water management, e.g. flood water management; landscape management, e.g. arrival of new species; land management, e.g. land loss due to sea level rise. Other aspects such as energy provision with renewable energies are also considered.

Ecosystem Services The term ecosystem service has not been used in the documents. However, references were made to specific ecosystem services such as recreation, sense of place, flood protection, etc. Supporting services were not included.

Environment This term was defined as the natural environment. Green Belt The Green Belt land is an important feature of the

boroughs and was included due to its importance regarding land development for housing and commercial purposes.

Green Infrastructure The keyword included green infrastructure throughout the borough, e.g. parks and nature reserves as well as the natural element, e.g. trees, in landscaping. Sustainability Sustainable development was included as a term

depending on the context of the sentence – the documents included economic sustainability, which were not included in the search. Only when the term was used according to the definition of Goodland (1995), the term was included to explore the attempt of the borough to become environmentally sustainable in the future.

3.6.4. The Design and Application of the Delphi Method in the Upper Mersey