Vans occupy an interesting position between passenger cars and the larger commercial vehicles. In this section we are defining vans as commercial vehicles < 3.5 tonnes GVW, i.e. those vehicles subject to EC Regulation 510/2011 Van CO2 regulations.
In preparation for the introduction of this regulation, the UK DfT was required to prepare a Regulatory Impact Assessment. As part of this RIA AEA undertook a study of the
of revised cost curves (AEA, 2010a). This study considered the issues to be considered over the 2008 – 2020 timeframe. These are the same issues that are relevant to this portion of the study.
7.3.1 Diesel – petrol vehicle ratio
In 2001 DfT statistics indicated 95.3% of the around 275,000 LCV sold were diesel fuelled. By 2010 this figure was 98.2% (DfT, 2011). However, closer examination of the detailed database indicates that it contains a small number of vehicles registered as “light commercial vehicles” which many would regard 4x4 private vehicles. These increase the non-diesel proportion of the sales. Consequently, a 98.2% diesel proportion is likely to be an
underestimate, with very few non-diesel vans are sold. The corollary to this is that there is negligible scope for improving the efficiency of the van fleet through increased dieselisation of the fleet.
The principal driver for the existing diesel-petrol vehicle ratio is the economics of operating vans. It is independent of GHG policy.
7.3.2 Trends in increasing vehicle efficiency
The study undertaken for the DfT noted that “vans” were not optimally considered as a single homogenous group. For pollutant emission compliance they are grouped by their reference mass (linked to kerb weight) with Class I vans having < 1265 kg, and Class III being >1,705 kg reference mass. Many class I vans can be viewed as being derived from cars, i.e. are passenger cars from which the rear seats and windows have been replaced with a panel body. These vehicles often use the chassis and powertrain platform of passenger cars, and their CO2 emissions efficiency follows that of the passenger cars.
In contrast, the heavier light commercial vehicles have no car counterpart. Their CO2 emissions efficiency is independent from that of passenger cars, but is influenced by commercial pressures, where the importance of fuel costs in the overall cost of ownership ensures manufacturers promote fuel efficiency at the van design stage of the vehicles’ lifecycle.
Consequently, the increases in van efficiency differed for the fuel-weight range classes, as illustrated below in Table 7.1.
Table 7.1: Increases in van efficiency and reported in the DfT new van counterfactual study
Diesel Petrol
Class I Class II Class III Class I Class II Class III
Change 2008 – 2020 -47.2% -29.5% -12% -34.7% -23.8% -12.0%
Change per year -3.9% -2.5% -1.0% -2.9% -2.0% -1.0%
From this analysis, which assumes the absence of GHG van regulations, if GHG car regulations were removed today, the fuel efficiency of smaller vans would continue to
improve slightly more than heavier duty vans because of technology transferring from cars to these small vans. The counterfactual study concluded that in the absence of any vehicle CO2 regulations a natural improvement rate of 1% p.a. would occur between 2008 and 2010 (all other factors remaining unaltered). However, as will be seen, there are other factors reducing this improvement.
7.3.3 Trends in increasing weight
A trend leading to poorer fuel efficiency, i.e. in the opposite direction to either technology crossover from passenger cars, or intrinsic efficiency improvements, arises from the trend for vehicles to get heavier. The analysis undertaken for the DfT quantified this trend as leading
to a +0.65% change in CO2 emissions per year, i.e. a 7.8% increase over the 12 year period 2008 – 2020.
7.3.4 The impact of environmental and safety regulations
The counterfactual van study also considered the impact of changes in the regulations concerning vans. These included:
The introduction of diesel particulate filters (increasing CO2 emissions for diesel vehicles);
The introduction of selective catalytic reduction for NOx abatement (increasing CO2 emissions for diesel vehicles);
The introduction of daytime running lights (increasing CO2 emissions for all vehicles). Tyre pressure monitoring systems (TPMS) and gear shift indicators (GSI) were also
considered. In the DfT study it was anticipated these would not change CO2 emissions over the regulatory test cycle (because at homologation vehicles are tested with correctly inflated tyres and gear changes occur at specified points). However, for on-the-road driving, these are anticipated to lead to modest CO2 emissions reductions.
7.3.5 Summary of data on vans
The DfT counterfactual new van CO2 study provides an evidence based baseline for vans. Over the period 2008 to 2020 it concludes that in the absence of CO2 regulations the CO2 emissions (and by inference the fuel consumption) of Class III vans will decrease by 2.7% for diesel vans( and by 5.2% for petrol vans though these only comprise around 2% of new van sales). The difference is caused by other regulations on vehicle emissions and safety leading to step increases in CO2 emissions from diesel vehicles at the date of their introduction.
If the diesel trend were to apply consistently between 2020 and 2050 this would lead to the following average van CO2 emission values:
Table 7.2: Increases in van efficiency as reported in the DfT new van counterfactual study, projected from 2020 to 2050
Average van CO2 emissions Change relative to 2008
2008 202.9 g/km
2020 197.5 g/km -2.7%
2050 182.0 g/km -10.3%
Consequently this analysis predicts that in the absence of CO2 regulations by 2050 “natural improvements” would not lead vans to meet the 175 g/km 2016 target.
It is also noted that this is a more modest rate of improvement than was reported for
passenger cars over the period 1978 – 2004 in DfT Statistics (a 23% improvement in this 26 year period). However, this figure includes contributions from:
the changing ratio of petrol to diesel fuelled vehicles, and
the replacement of carburettors for petrol vehicles to fuel injection systems, computer engine management systems etc, and similar changes from mechanical systems to electronically controlled fuel injection systems for diesel vehicles.
The former factor does not apply to vans, and the latter factor can be viewed as a one off step change in technology that will not be repeated. When these factors are removed the trends given in Table 7.2 appear well aligned with those seen in the past.
In summary, we believe that there is some evidence to suggest that the assumption of a flat counterfactual is not valid for vans and it may be more appropriate for CCC to revise this assumption in its modelling work to reflect a gradual rate of
improvement in van efficiency.