CAUSAS DE NO EMPADRONAMIENTO

Climate change has long since ceased to be a scientific curiosity and is no longer just one of many environmental and regulatory concerns. As the United Nations Secretary General has said, it is the major, overriding environmental issue of our time, and the single greatest challenge facing environmental regulators. Taking into consideration climate change effects, frequent and extreme weather events

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are growing, but the effects of climate change are not only described by data and scenarios, climate change is redrawing the world economy and is dramatically worsening human lives (IPCC, 2014, World Bank Report 2012). As a consequence, it is a growing crisis with the economy, health and safety, food production, security, and other dimensions (UNEP, 2015). Carbon dioxide is probably the most important greenhouse gas as it accounts for the largest proportion of the 'trace gases' and is currently responsible for 60% of the 'enhanced greenhouse effect'. Global emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) continued their upward trend and those in 2011 were almost 50 per cent above their 1990 level.

Figure 8: Annual mean growth rate of CO₂ at Mauna Loa (NOAA/ESRL, 2014).

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The graph (Figure 8) clearly shows annual mean carbon dioxide growth rates for Mauna Loa. Based on the comparison of atmospheric samples contained in ice cores and more recent direct measurements, it provides evidence that atmospheric CO2 has increased since the Industrial Revolution. Correspondingly, observations, theoretical studies and model simulations indicate an overall warming since the mid-20th century. It is at least 95% certain that human activities have caused more than half of the temperature increase since the 1950s. This warming is responsible for climate change effects worldwide.

Figure 9: Surface Temperature Anomaly (° C) in July 2010, base period 1951-1980

Figure 9 shows that the surface temperature over the land and ocean temperature is rising across the globe. The map shows the temperature anomaly relative to the month of July 2010 in comparison with the period 1951-980. The Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)¹ strongly shows that human influence on the climate system is clear, and recent anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases are the highest in history.

Recent climate changes have had widespread impacts on human and natural systems. Human activities, particularly the emission of carbon dioxide, are

1 The Fifth Assesment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is the most detailed assessment of climate change ever. It is based on more data, contains more detailed regional projection and it is more confident about its conclusion than any global assessment to date.

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causing a sustained and unequivocal rise in global temperatures. Concurrently, the rise in global temperatures is causing changes in all geographical regions: the atmosphere and oceans are warming, the extent and volume of snow and ice are diminishing, sea levels are rising and weather patterns are changing. Many changes are unprecedented over decades to millennia. Climate models project continued changes under a range of possible greenhouse gas emission scenarios over the 21^st century. Climate change evidently affects all regions of the world.

To this purpose, figures 10a, 10b and 10c provide climate change information and evidence from various credible sources across the globe and also specific data concerning the Italian region of Emilia-Romagna. It can be observed that there is strong evidence of climate change. It has been taking place within the atmosphere, land, ocean, snow and ice systems with an unprecedented frequency over decades to millennia. The rising levels of greenhouse gases (particularly carbon dioxide) from the burning of fossil fuels and land-use changes (such as deforestation) are in large part driving warming. According to IPCC (2015) natural processes (like changes in solar activity) are responsible for only a very small proportion of recent temperature changes. Therefore, in this most recent period of the Earth's history, starting in the 18th century, the activities of humans first began to have a significant global impact on the Earth's climate and ecosystems. This period has been called Anthropocene, a term coined in 2000 by the Nobel Prize winning scientist Paul Crutzen (Steffen et al., 2011).

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Figure 10a: GlobalClimate change information and evidence

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Figure 10b: Global Climate change information and evidence

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Figure 10c: RegionalClimate change information and evidence (ARPA, 2015).

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We rely on coal, oil and gas (the fossil fuels) for over 80% of our current energy needs – a situation which shows (Figure 11) little sign of changing over the medium-term without drastic policy changes. On top of this, energy demand is expected to grow by almost half over the next two decades. Understandably this is causing some fear that our energy resources are starting to run out, with devastating consequences for the global economy and global quality of life.

Figure 11: World Primary Energy Supply by Fuel (IEA, 2013)

The potential for crisis if we run out of energy is very real but there is still time before that occurs. In the past two decades proven gas reserves have increased by 70% and proven oil reserves by 40%. At expected rates of demand growth we have enough for thirty years supply. Moreover, better technology means that new oil and gas fields are being discovered all the time while enhanced recovery techniques are opening up a potentially huge array of unconventional sources, including tar sands, shale gas and ultra-deepwater. Ultimately, the near-unlimited supply potential of renewable energy sources should ensure that the world does not fall short of its energy needs.

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Figure 12: Oil Production by geographic area.

The security of global energy supplies is problematic. Today, oil and gas reserves are in the hands of a small group of nations, several of which are considered politically unstable or have testy relationships with large consuming countries.

Eighty per cent of the world’s proven oil reserves are located in just three regions:

Africa; Russia and the Caspian Basin; and the Persian Gulf (Figure 12). And more than half of the world’s remaining proven gas reserves exists in just three countries: Russia, Iran, and Qatar. Concerns over energy security prompt policymakers to seek independence from foreign sources of energy. In Europe, new coal-fired power stations are back on the political agenda, partly because Russia is no longer seen as a reliable supplier of gas. In the US, home-grown biofuels have been promoted by successive administrations as an alternative to Middle Eastern oil imports, despite being more expensive. These reactions are a natural consequence. The more governments can free themselves from the dependence on foreign energy resources, the more secure they feel.