El proceso de escorrent´ıa y c´ alculo del coeficiente de esco-

Persistence research that includes perspectives on the role of finances draws primarily from two inter-related theories: human capital theory, and student demand theory (St. John et al., 1996; Paulsen, 1998). Human capital theory provides a framework to describe the financial investment students make in college, based on the return they hope to receive. Student demand theory states that the “purchase” of education is subject to many of the same cost effects as products in microeconomic theory: the level of education that students are willing to pursue (and pay for) is negatively associated with its cost. Using these perspectives, St. John and Starkey (1995) unpacked the cost of higher education from one variable (net price) to the different variables that represented several facets of the cost of higher education.

Financial impact theory. Early applications of the financial impact theory found

that financial aid, alone, was negatively associated with persistence (St. John & Starkey, 1994; St. John & Starkey, 1995a; Somers, 1995). Researchers interpreted this unintuitive finding as a sign that students receiving financial aid were receiving inadequate levels which thus led to lower rates of retention (St. John & Starkey, 1995a). More importantly, separating the net price variable into variables representing loans, grants, and tuition revealed interactions between different socioeconomic levels and institution type.

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Lowest income students were most affected by grant level, while middle-income students were more affect by loans. In a subsequent exploration of this net-price alternative, St. John and Starkey (1995b) found that adult undergraduates were more sensitive to tuition price if they were from disadvantaged backgrounds, or if they attended a public college.

Several institution-specific studies examined the relationship between financial aid and student persistence in the late 1990s. Somers (1995) examined an urban, public university and confirmed earlier findings that financial aid, due to its association with attrition, was inadequate. St. John, Hu, and Tuttle (2000) found similar results at an urban public university, noting that the increase in grants at the institution was crucial in recent increases in retention rate.

Bettinger (2004) examined the effects of Pell Grants on student retention, using panel and cross-sectional variation analysis of Ohio college students. He found

significant positive results between Pell Grant level and lower incidence of stop-outs, though cautions that the relationship between Pell Grants and persistence is contingent on the association between Pell Grants and access (Bettinger, 2004). Some students would never enroll without Pell Grants, while some would, but perhaps at a different institution.

Gross, Hossler, and Ziskin (2007) looked at the impact on institutional aid at public four-year institutions and included interaction terms to examine potential

interactions between gender and financial aid level. They found statistically significant main effects for institutional gift aid and a statistically significant interaction between aid and gender; the change in predicted probability of persistence per increase in aid was greater for men than for women. However, aid was positively associated with persistence for both genders, and the effect size was small for the entire population.

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Two-year institutions. A few studies have focused on student persistence at two-

year schools. Although many of these focus specifcally on the community college sector (public non-profits only), the similarities in the populations which consider and attend these schools makes research on these students' success relevant to the current study.

Two-year schools may not devote resources to the type of first-year experiences that fsome four-year colleges do, but use of an analogous success course may help integrate students into the community college campus, especially for nontraditional or disadvantaged students (Stovall, 2000). These at-risk students may respond differently to than students at different level schools. Calcagno, Crosta, Bailey, and Jenkins (2007) found that, contrary to earlier models which suggested older students were less likely to complete, community college students over age 25 were associated with higher

probabilities of degree completion. The differences in community college completion rates appear to vary by student background and by method of program delivery. For example, Aragon and Johnson (2008) found that while college readiness and online courseload were significantly related to successfully completion of community college online coursework, ethnicity, age, and financial aid eligibility were not. Mullin (2011) followed a community college cohort for six years and found disadvantaged ethnic groups and college readiness significantly associated with leaving before completion.

Dowd and Coury (2006) used BPS 1990/94 data to examine the effect of loans on community college students, and examined interactions between federal loan level and both dependency status and low income status. They found that loan amount had a negative effect on first-to-second-year persistence for all examined groups except for independent, higher income students. However, when modeled for associate’s degree

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completion, the effect of loans was not significant. These findings are consistent with a similar study Dowd (2004) conducted on dependent students attending four-year

institutions. While the use of subsidized loans was significantly and positively associated with persistence to the second year, this influence did not appear to compensate for differences in degree completion between income levels.

Five years prior, Cofer and Somers (2001) used more recent data, from the NPSAS 1993 and 1996, to examine the impact of financial aid on persistence at public non-profit and for-profit institutions. Their regression analysis showed that tuition had a small negative effect on persistence, while grants and loans had a positive effect. Work- study income was significant in the model for 1996 data, but not 1993. High debt level, which was measured separately from loans, was negatively associated with persistence in 1993, but positively associated in 1996. However, access to financial aid may still be a critical influence on persistence as much as it is on access. McKinney and Novak (2013) found that failure to complete a Free Application for Federal Student Aid (FAFSA) was strongly associated with lower rates of persistence.

Precursors to nexus research. A series of studies using NPSAS:87 explored the

financial impact model on within-year persistence for several different student

populations. St. John and Andrieu (1995) found that tuition level was related to graduate student persistence regardless of aid level, and that comprehensive packages of loans, grants, and work study were most effective in increasing retention. Hippensteel, St. John, and Starkey (1996), again using national data from NPSAS:87, examined undergraduates at two-year schools and found similar results: Tuition level is negatively associated with

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persistence, and, again, a negative association between financial aid and persistence suggests insufficient levels of aid.

Of particular relevance to the proposed study, St. John, Starkey, Paulsen, and Mbadugha (1995) examined the effects of the financial impact model variables on students at proprietary schools. They found, similar to previous examinations of other student populations, that tuition level was negatively and substantially associated with persistence. Also, several new findings suggest that proprietary schools offer a unique educational opportunity for traditionally disadvantaged students: African American and Hispanic students were actually more likely to persist at proprietary schools, as were students who did not graduate from high school. These findings suggest that not only do proprietary schools offer opportunities for success to minority students, but that students who attend proprietary schools after earning GEDs are more motivated to complete their degrees.

Following closely on the heels of several studies on price and price subsidies’ effects on student persistence in 1995, a 1996 study by St. John, Paulsen, and Starkey expanded the scope further by offering a theory that examined the connection between financial influences, college choice, and persistence.