Procesos de Comunicación interna

Annual Maximum Fuel Market Capture Rate:

UNIT: Fraction

DESCRIPTION: Maximum Potential growth available for a particular fuel pathway in a given year. This variable is based on growth relative to all fuel production.

USE: Used to approximate the impact of more technology and financial specific related limitations on the growth in the industry.

SUBSCRIPTS USED: Fuel Pathways

DATA SOURCE: Assumption based on expert consultation Excess Imports or Exports as a Fraction of Total Fuel Demand: UNIT: Fraction (e.g. 10% would be 0.10)

DESCRIPTION: The maximum fraction of total demand that can be met by and the maximum fraction that state or region production will grow to produce exports. Sets an upper or lower level ratio of export/import relative to the expansion or contraction of total electricity demand.

USE: Used to limit the level of state or region demand that can be met by imports and limits the level of electricity production growth to supply exports. Input a fraction to represent the excess electricity that is exported or imported as a percentage of total demand. This variable does not impact what would occur if there is a temporary production shortfall because of unanticipated growth in demand.

SUBSCRIPTS USED: N/A DATA SOURCE: User input

Average Life of Fuel Production Capacity: UNIT: Number of Years

DESCRIPTION: The average lifespan of a fuel production plant or refinery. Used to calculate the rate at which fuel production infrastructure is decommissioned and the capital recovery factor for fuel production technologies. USE: Input an assumed average lifespan for each fuel type.

SUBSCRIPTS USED: Transportation Technology

DATA SOURCE: Assumption based on expert consultation Imported Fuel Price Relative to State or Region Prices: UNIT: Fraction

DESCRIPTION: Percentage above or below in state or region import fuel prices are.

USE: Used to determine whether the system will import or export fuels up to the maximum fraction. SUBSCRIPTS USED: Transportation Technology

DATA SOURCE: Assumption based on expert consultation Transportation Technology Availability Start Date: UNIT: Year

DESCRIPTION: Date in which a particular transportation fuel technology becomes available. USE: Transportation technologies do not become available for construction until after the date set. SUBSCRIPTS USED: Fuel Pathways

DATA SOURCE: Assumption based on expert consultation.

Note: Oil Sands start date was set by the modeling team to limit the utilization of oil sand feedstocks in certain states to reflect reality.

Initial Fuel Production Capacity in 2000: UNIT: Trillion BTUs

DESCRIPTION: Initial existing fuel production capacity needed to supply in state fuel demands. USE: Used to set initial fuel production capacity.

SUBSCRIPTS USED: Transportation Technology

DATA SOURCE: Coal to Liquids, Cellulosic Ethanol, Natural Gas, Adv Biodiesel values all 0. Refinery and Oil sands baseline data: Energy Information Administration (EIA) Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) accessed 2008, http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/index.html

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Corn Grain Ethanol baseline data: Minnesota data from Minnesota Department of Agriculture (MDA) Ethanol Program (2000 data), http://www.mda.state.mn.us/en/renewable/ethanol/about.aspx, other states baseline data based on the assumption that 2009 proportions of national ethanol production are the same as 2000.

Biodiesel: assumption- 10% of ethanol.

TRANSPORTATION-FUEL INFRASTRUCTURE COSTS Transportation Technology Construction Costs: UNIT: Dollar/Trillion BTU

DESCRIPTION: Transportation fuel technology construction costs.

USE: Used to calculate levelized average costs which are then used to make construction and blending decisions. SUBSCRIPTS USED: Transportation Technology

DATA SOURCES: Refinery, Oil Sands, Natural Gas: Assumptions

Coal to Liquid: National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) and US Department of Energy (DOE) (2009), Affordable, Low-Carbon Diesel Fuel from Domestic Coal and Biomass. DOE/NETL- 2009/1349.

http://www.netl.doe.gov/energy-analyses/pubs/CBTL%20Final%20Report.pdf

Corn Grain Ethanol, Cellulosic Ethanol: Tiffany, D. & Taff, S. J. (2009). Current and future ethanol production technologies: costs of production and Rates of Return on invested capital. Int. J. Biotechnology. 11(1/2):75-91. Biodiesel: Paulson, N & Ginder, R (2007). The Growth and Direction of the Biodiesel Industry in the United States. Working Paper 07-WP 448. Center for Agricultural and Rural Development, Iowa State University.

http://www.agmrc.org/media/cms/CARD07PaulsonGinder_751A2F9827ABF.pdf Adv. Biodiesel: None; value is 0

Transportation Investment Discount Rate UNIT: Fraction

DESCRIPTION: Discount rate used in the transportation fuel sector.

USE: Used to calculate levelized average costs which influences construction and blending decisions. SUBSCRIPTS USED: Transportation Technology

DATA SOURCE: Assumption based on expert consultation (5%). Transportation Technology Operation and Maintenance Costs: UNIT: Dollar/Trillion BTU

DESCRIPTION: Transportation fuel technology operation and maintenance costs.

USE: Used to calculate levelized average costs which are then used to make construction and blending decisions. SUBSCRIPTS USED: Transportation Technology

DATA SOURCE: Refinery, Oil Sands: Assumptions

Coal to Liquid: National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) and US Department of Energy (DOE) (2009), Affordable, Low-Carbon Diesel Fuel from Domestic Coal and Biomass. DOE/NETL- 2009/1349.

http://www.netl.doe.gov/energy-analyses/pubs/CBTL%20Final%20Report.pdf Kreutz, et al. (2008). Fischer- Tropsch Fuels From Coal and Biomass. Princeton Environmental Institute, Princeton University.

http://web.mit.edu/mitei/docs/reports/kreutz-fischer-tropsch.pdf

Corn Grain Ethanol, Cellulosic Ethanol: Tiffany, D. & Taff, S. J. (2009). Current and future ethanol production technologies: costs of production and Rates of Return on invested capital. Int. J. Biotechnology. 11(1/2):75-91. Biodiesel: Paulson, N & Ginder, R (2007). The Growth and Direction of the Biodiesel Industry in the United States. Working Paper 07-WP 448. Center for Agricultural and Rural Development, Iowa State University.

http://www.agmrc.org/media/cms/CARD07PaulsonGinder_751A2F9827ABF.pdf Natural Gas: Expert consultation

Adv. Biodiesel: None; value is 0

Federal Fuel Feedstock Taxes or Subsidies UNIT: Dollar/Trillion BTU

DESCRIPTION: Federal feedstock transportation fuel technology tax or subsidy policy.

USE: Used to calculate levelized average costs which influences construction and blending decisions. SUBSCRIPTS USED: Fuel Pathways

DATA SOURCE: Policy input.

TRANSPORTATION-LIFE CYCLE EMISSIONS Coal to Liquids Biomass Percentage:

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