Respondents to the survey were requested to indicate the growth in their turnover from the supply of security products and services over the last 5 years and their expectations for growth in turnover for the next 5 years. In addition, respondents were requested to indicate their expectations for the development of demand for security products and services in the foreseeable future for different broad customer groups (cf. public sector, critical infrastructure sectors, business sector, and private individuals and households) and by geographical area (cf. national market, Europe, outside Europe).
3.10.1 Past turnover growth performance
Figure 3.29 and Figure 3.30 display data on the distribution of respondents according to their growth on turnover over the past 5 years. The most frequent growth range is ‘remained more or less the same [+/- 2%]’, which is indicated by one third of respondents that gave an answer to this question (34%). The data indicates that growth in the cyber security area as well as ‘other’ security services has been stronger than for ‘other’ security products; for example, 20% of respondents whose main security activities are in the area of cyber security and ‘other’ security services report growth of more than 25%, compared to only 16% of respondents whose main business is in the area of ‘other’ security products, respectively.6
At the other end of the growth distribution, only 6% of respondents whose main area of business is in the supply of cyber security products and services reported negative growth in the last 5 years, while a similar picture arises for suppliers of ‘other’ security services (5% of respondents), compared with 8% of respondents whose main area of business is in the area of ’other’ security products.
3.10.2 Future turnover growth prospects
Respondents offer a moderately positive outlook for turnover growth for the next 5 years, as shown in Figure 3.31 and Figure 3.32. Overall, a total of 60% of respondents7 indicate that they expect turnover to increase over the next 5 years (i.e. ‘increase by more than 25%’, ‘increase by between 11% and 25%’, ‘increase by between 3% and 10%’). As with past growth performance, cyber security is associated with the strongest turnover expectations, with over half of respondents (60%) whose main security activities are in the area of cyber-security indicating that they expect turnover to increase by more than 10% (i.e. ‘increase by more than 25%’ or ‘increase by between 11% and 25%’), over the next 5 years, compared to 35% among respondents whose main security business relates to ‘other’ security services and 30% among ‘other’ security products providers.
At the same time, there appears to be a positive outlook for both cyber security products and services. In fact, taking account of responses on past turnover performance compared with future turnover expectation shows that among those respondents whose main security business relates to cyber security products and services 73% expect future turnover growth to exceed that of the past 5 years, and only 4% expect it to decrease.8 By contrast, providers of ‘other’ security services appear to have lower expectations on future turnover growth compared to past turnover performance, with 59% of respondents expecting future growth to exceed that of the past 5 years, and 6% expecting a decrease. The corresponding percentages for ‘other’ security products are 57% and 8%.
6
Excluding respondents that did not provide information on their turnover growth for the past 5 years.
7
Excluding respondents that did not provide information on their turnover growth expectations for the next 5 years.
8
These percentages are calculated on the sample of respondents that provided both information on their turnover growth for the past 5 years and on their expectations for turnover growth the next 5 years. The percentage reflects the proportion of
Figure 3.29 Turnover growth over past 5 years (number of respondents)
Source: Ecorys SSS (France)
Figure 3.30 Distribution of turnover growth by main broad industry category (% of respondents in broad industry
category, excluding no answer / don't know)
Source: Ecorys SSS (France)
68 81 68 128 12 7 6 125 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0% 40.0%
Figure 3.31 Turnover growth expectation for next 5 years (number of respondents)
Source: Ecorys SSS (France)
Figure 3.32 Distribution of turnover growth expectations for next 5 years by main broad industry category (% of
respondents in broad industry category, excluding no answer / don't know)
Source: Ecorys SSS (France)
64 59 83 112 17 6 0 154 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0% 40.0%
3.10.3 Future demand prospects by broad customer group and geographical area
Respondents offer a positive outlook for future demand prospects for security products and services in terms of expected geographical distribution, with at least 50% indicating that they expect positive growth in demand across all geographical regions; see Figure 3.33.9 Overall, demand expectations appear to be strongest for international markets ‘Europe’ and ‘outside Europe’ and weakest for the domestic market (i.e. ‘national market as a whole’). At the same time, looking at the balance of expectations for different customer groups, all the customer groups have rather positive expectations of growth demand. Thereby, the expectations for positive growth for the ‘critical infrastructure sector’ are bit stronger (52% of respondents overall) then for other customer groups. Figure 3.34 and Figure 3.35 provide a breakdown based on respondents main broad industry category (see Section 3.3). As with turnover growth expectations (overall, not taking account of future growth expectations relative to past growth performance), respondents whose main security activities are in the area of cyber-security have (on balance) a slightly stronger positive expectations for future demand growth, with at least 50% indicating that they expect positive growth in demand across all geographical areas and all broad customer groups, with the exception of ‘public sector’ (44% of respondents). Although it is necessary to be cautious in interpreting findings for respondents in the area of cyber-security due to the small sample for this question, it nevertheless appears that cyber-security respondents have (on balance) a relatively positive outlook on future demand prospects. The patterns of demand expectations for ‘other’ security products and ‘other’ security services are very similar across broad customer groups, but there appears to be a slightly stronger expectation for future growth, particularly outside Europe, for respondents whose main activities are ‘other’ security products (more than 70% of respondents, compared with more than 56% of respondents for ‘other’ security services).
Figure 3.33 Distribution of demand growth expectations by customer groups and geographical area (% of
respondents, excluding no answer / don't know)
Source: Ecorys SSS (France)
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Public sector
Critical infrastructure sectors
Business sector
Private individuals and households
National market as a whole
Europe
Outside Europe
Figure 3.34 Distribution of demand growth expectations by customer groups and by main broad industry category (% of respondents, excluding no answer / don't know)
Source: Ecorys SSS (France)
Figure 3.35 Distribution of demand growth expectations by geographical area and by main broad industry category
(% of respondents, excluding no answer / don't know)
Source: Ecorys SSS (France)
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Cyber security Public sector Critical infrastructure sectors Business sector Private individuals and households Other security products Public sector Critical infrastructure sectors Business sector Private individuals and households Other security services Public sector Critical infrastructure sectors Business sector Private individuals and households
Increase strongly Increase slightly Stay roughly the same Decrease slightly Decrease strongly Cyber security
Other security products
Other security services
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Cyber security
National market as a whole
Europe
Outside Europe
Other security products
National market as a whole
Europe
Outside Europe
Other security services
National market as a whole
Europe
Outside Europe
Increase strongly Increase slightly Stay roughly the same Decrease slightly Decrease strongly Cyber security
Other security products
3.11 Competitors
Respondents to the survey were requested to indicate the geographical region from which their main competitors come from, using the following classification: Local/regional area (i.e. sub-national level); National area (i.e. from within the country as a whole); European countries (EU and non-EU); Outside of Europe. In addition, where respondents indicated that they faced competition from companies from a particular geographical region they were requested to indicate their expectations for development of competition from that geographical region in the future (i.e., over the next 5 years).
3.11.1 Geographical origin of main competitors – all products and services
Overall, as show in Figure 3.36, two-thirds (68%) of respondents indicate that their main competitors come from within the domestic sector only, of which 23% indicate that their main competitors are only at a local (sub-national) level (i.e. ‘domestic: regional only’). Just 17% of respondents indicate that their main competitors come from both the domestic sector and from abroad (i.e. ‘domestic and international’ sub-categories), while 15% of companies indicate that their main competitors come exclusively from outside the domestic sector.
Figure 3.36 Geographical origin of main competitors (number and % of respondents, excluding no answer / don't
knows)
Source: Ecorys SSS (France)
3.11.2 Breakdown by main broad category of security products and services
Figure 3.37, Figure 3.38 and Figure 3.39 provide a breakdown of main competitors for, respectively, respondents whose main security-related activities are in the areas of cyber-security products and services, ‘other’ security products and ‘other’ security services. Comparing across the three groups, while 77% of respondents whose main security-related activities are in the area of ‘other’ security services indicate that their main competitors come only from the domestic market (either at regional
Domestic: regional only, 112, 23%
Domestic: regional and national, 62, 13%
Domestic: national, 157, 32% Domestic & International
(Europe only), 30, 6% Domestic & International (Europe and outside Europe),
47, 9% Domestic & International (outside Europe only), 10, 2%
International: Europe only, 24, 5%
International: Europe and outside Europe, 35, 7%
International: outside Europe only, 17, 3%
to the supply of ‘other’ security products and just 8% of respondents offering ‘other’ security services.
Figure 3.37 Cyber-security products and services: geographical origin of main competitors (number and % of
respondents, excluding no answer / don't knows)
Source: Ecorys SSS (France)
Figure 3.38 'Other' security products: geographical origin of main competitors (number and % of respondents,
excluding no answer / don't knows)
Source: Ecorys SSS (France)
Domestic: regional only, 10, 16%
Domestic: regional and national, 6, 10%
Domestic: national, 20, 33% Domestic & International
(Europe only), 1, 2% Domestic & International (Europe and outside Europe),
7, 11% Domestic & International (outside Europe only), 1, 2% International: Europe only, 6,
10%
International: Europe and outside Europe, 6, 10%
International: outside Europe only, 4, 6%
Domestic: regional only, 49, 21%
Domestic: regional and national, 23, 10%
Domestic: national, 67, 29% Domestic & International
(Europe only), 16, 7% Domestic & International (Europe and outside Europe),
26, 11% Domestic & International (outside Europe only), 7, 3%
International: Europe only, 13, 6%
International: Europe and outside Europe, 20, 9%
International: outside Europe only, 10, 4%
Figure 3.39 'Other' security services: geographical origin of main competitors (number and % of respondents, excluding no answer / don't knows)
Source: Ecorys SSS (France)
Feedback from national stakeholders
Regarding Figure 3.37, it was stated that the small share of competition from ‘outside Europe’ is not typical of the cyber products, but more of the cyber service field, which is a more locally organized market.
3.11.3 Future competition prospects by geographical origin of main competitors
Conditional on respondents’ identification of the geographical origin of their main competitors, Figure 3.40 and Figure 3.41 show the distribution of respondents’ expectation for the future development of competition based on the geographical origin of competitors. Overall, the general pattern is that respondents expect (on balance) stronger increases in competition from foreign companies – particularly from outside Europe – than from domestic rivals. This is especially the case for ‘other’ security products and ‘other’ security services; however given the small sample size of respondents and low response-rate among respondents, these finding should be interpreted cautiously. The same is true for cyber security regarding expectations on competition from abroad. Looking at expectations on regional competition, 43% of respondents whose main security related activities are in cyber security expect regional competition to increase in the future. The corresponding figure for ‘other’ security services is 52% and for ‘other’ security products is 50%.
Domestic: regional only, 53, 26%
Domestic: regional and national, 32, 16%
Domestic: national, 70, 35% Domestic & International
(Europe only), 13, 7% Domestic & International (Europe and outside Europe),
14, 7%
Domestic & International (outside Europe only), 2, 1%
Figure 3.40 Distribution of expectations of change in competition by geographical origin of competitors (% of respondents, excluding no answer / don't know)
Source: Ecorys SSS (France)
Figure 3.41 Distribution of expectations of change in competition by geographical origin of competitors and by
main broad industry category (% of respondents, excluding no answer / don't know)
Source: Ecorys SSS (France)
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Regional
National
International (Europe)
International (outside Europe)
Increase strongly Increase slightly Stay roughly the same Decrease slightly Decrease strongly
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Cyber security Regional National International (Europe) International (outside Europe) Other security products Regional National International (Europe) International (outside Europe) Other security services Regional National International (Europe) International (outside Europe)
Increase strongly Increase slightly Stay roughly the same Decrease slightly Decrease strongly Cyber security
Other security products