Protecciones para los distintos Cuadros Secundarios

5.2.1 Pros and Cons

In a letter to his friend John Priestly dated back to 1772, Benjamin Franklin first mentioned a systematic method for rational decision-making [Sparks, 1844]:

“(...) my Way is, to divide half a Sheet of Paper by a Line into two Columns, writing over the one Pro, and over the other Con. Then during three or four Days Consideration I put down under the different Heads short Hints of the different Motives that at different Times occur to me for or against the Measure. When I have thus got them all together in one View, I endeavour to estimate their respective Weights; and where I find two, one on each side, that seem equal, I strike them both out: If I find a Reason Pro equal to some two Reasons con, I strike out the three. If I judge some two Reasons Con equal to some three Reasons pro, I strike out the five; and thus proceeding I find at length where the Ballance lies; and if after a Day or two of farther Consideration nothing new that is of Importance occurs on either side, I come to a Determination accordingly.” Franklin’s method is often simply referred to as “Pros and Cons”. The basic process steps of his method can be summarized as follows:

1. Frame the problem into a clear yes/no either/or decision. question regarding a course of action.

2. Write down a list of all Pros and Cons.

3. Assess and weight Pros and Cons with respect to their importance and entrance probability.

4. Analyse and reflect on the weighted list. 5. Review and conclude.

5.2.2 Moral Algebra

Franklin was aware that a good rational decision can not be simply calculated by summing up weighted arguments. Instead, making a decision always involves various moral, emo-

tional or other subjective aspects that just cannot be formalized. Franklin himself described his method for decision-making as “moral algebra”:

“And tho’ the Weight of Reasons cannot be taken with the Precision of Al- gebraic Quantities, yet when each is thus considered separately and compara- tively, and the whole lies before me, I think I can judge better, and am less likely to take a rash Step; and in fact I have found great Advantage from this kind of Equation, in what may be called Moral or Prudential Algebra.”

Although Franklin had no knowledge of concepts such as cognitive load, limited working memory capacity, external memory or decision-making patterns, Franklin’s perspective an- ticipated many ideas and concepts used in modern decision theory and cognitive science. For example, he suggests to avoid impulsive responses, i.e. hypervigilant decision-making (See Sect. 5.3).

5.2.3 Discussion of Franklin’s Approach for Coaching

Benjamin Franklin’s idea of a moral algebra gives an important implication for decision support, and computer based decision coaching in particular: Although the decision maker might be able to create a formal representation with weights, the best solution does not necessarily derive from a maximization function. Choice is a subjective task, based on personal values and goals, which have to be evaluated carefully by the decision maker himself. Therefore, a decision support system such as VPINOdoes not need to suggest a particular option or decision.

From our modern perspective, Franklin’s method may seem too simplistic and out- dated. Nevertheless, it is still commonly recommended by blogs, supportive literature and even professional coaches. Many decision support websites or books present templates as the example displayed in Fig. 5.1. In accordance with Franklin’s Idea of a moral alge- bra, the deciding human has to review the list of Pros and Cons and reflect about relevant issues for their specific problem instead of calculating a choice. However, the design of the spreadsheets, weight categories (risk, probability, importance, gain, etc.) and reflection questions can vary depending on the authors preferences. For example, the review and reflection questions include the following (quoted literally from [Nickols, 2015]):

• How do the Pros and Cons stack up against one another?

• How does the importance of the Pros compare with the importance of the Cons? • How does the probability of the Pros compare with the probability of the Cons? • What is the “mix” of importance and probability? What patterns do you see? • What patterns do you see? What do they tell you? What is the overall balance of

consequences?

Figure 5.1: An example of common spreadsheets for decision-making with Benjamin Franklin’s method, usually provided with a set of possible review and reflection questions.

• What are you risking and are you willing to risk it? • When do you have to decide?

• Are there any overriding factors?

• Are there any inconsistencies to be resolved?

However, in Franklin’s approach, the decision maker commits to a single course of action, either for or against a particular alternative. Thereby, a decision is limited to two alternatives (for/against or yes/no). Also, Franklin’s approach is driven by evaluation of a fixed set of collected alternatives only. In contrast, more recent approaches focus on goals and values related to the decision problem.