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PROVISORIO EPÍLOGO

In document RODOLFO WALSH: TABÚ Y MITO (página 104-108)

For convenience we repeat the model (7.1)

y . = x!3 + u. if RHS > 0 l i l

= 0 if RHS < 0 , i = 1,2,...,N .

To derive our test we begin by assuming that the density of u^ , g(u^) , is a member of the Pearson family. We order the N observations so that the first M have y. > 0 , and the second N - M have y. = 0 .

l l

Then we can write the log-likelihood for the N observations as

2 M N

M3,a

,c ,c ,a) = £ ln{g(u )} + £ ln{l -

i=l i=M+l - x ^ 3

where g(u_^) = exp[ijj(u^)]/ exp [ij> (u^) ] du_^ and

1'(ui ) [(c^-u^)/ (c -c^u^+c2u ^ ) ]du^ . As in the previous chapter (see

page 147) we introduce heteroscedasticity by replacing by a + z^a , where z

^

is a q x 1 vector of fixed variables satisfying the

conditions set out in Amemiya (1977a), and a is a unknown parameter vector.

Our interest is to test H : c_ = c_ = 0, a = 0 , i.e.,

o 1 2

disturbance

NH

. For this we use the LM test statistic as defined in

2

equation (4.7) but now we set 0^ = (3',a )' and 0^ = (c^^c^/a')’ . After some computations we obtain (full derivations are in Appendix 7.1)

LM

NHiTOBIT)

21 11 12J

I 1I ]

(7.3)

where

i l [ui/Q2-u^/(3ö4)] - ^ ^ . / ( l - F i ) ] [Gil/52-Si3/(354 )]

^1 [-3/4+u4/(4ö4 )] - i 2 [Fi/ d - F i )] [-3/4+u±4/(454 )]

^1 [-l/(2G2)+u2/(254 )]zi -

l 2

[F./(1-F.)] [-1/(2^2)+u.2/(2G4 )]z.

b n = yx.x![F.{u. /o4 }+G.{u2. /a4 }] 11 L l l l i2 x ll

b = £x.[F.{-u /(2a4 )+u /(2g~6°)}+G.{-u /(2a*)+u u /(2c°)}]~ 4 % ~ ~ , , ~6,

b 13 = Ix-l ^ i{ui2/a4-ui4/(3g6 ) }+Gi(u^1/a4-uilu i3/(3a°) }]~6,

b = £x. [F.{-3u /(4g2 )+u . /(4o6 ) } + G .{- 3 u . / (4aZ )+u u ~2X ~ ~ / (4o°)}],, ~6,

b 15 = Ixiz| [Fi(-uil/ (2g4 )+u_. ^ / (2G6 ) }+G_. {-u. 1 /(2a4 )+ u.^u,. 0/ (2a6 ) }]

i il il i2

b 22 = ItFi{l/(454 )-u.2/(206 )+ui4/(4G8 )}+Gi{l/(454 )-ui2/(256 )+u22/(458 )}]

~4

b 23 = 51 [Fi(-uil/ (25^) + 2 u i3/ (356 ) -u ±5 / (6a8 ) }+gA -u±1/(2a^)+u±3/~4x ~ , ,(6oö ) ~6,

+UiiUi2 /(2a6 )-u i 2U i 3/(6g8 )}]

b „, = 51[F.{3/(832 )-3u /(854 )-u /(8q6 )+u /(858 )}+G.{3/(8g2 )-3u /(8g4 )

-ui4/(8a6 )+ui2u i4/(8a8 )}]

b 25 = Izi[Fi{l/(454 )-ui2/(256 )+ui4/(458 )}+Gi{l/(454 )-ui2/(256 )+u22/(458 )}]

b 33 = I[F^{u^2/g4-2u^4/(3a8 )+u_^8 /(9°8 )^+^i^u ii/a4~ 2uiiu i3/(3g6 )+u23/(9g8 )}] b 34 = I[Fi{-3uil/(452 )+ui3/(4G4 )+ui5/(4G6 )-ui7/(12G8 )}+Gi{-3uil/(4G2 )

+u i3/(4G4 )+uilu i4/(4G6 )-u.3u i4/(12G8 )}]

i3y i3'

b 35 = IzitFi(-uil/(2G4 )+2ui3/(3G6 )-ui5/(6G8 )}+Gi{-u.1/(2G4 )+u.^/(6G6 ) ~ ~ . _ ~8,

+U ilU i2 /(2G )"U i2U i3/(6a )}1

b 44 = ^ [Fi(9/16-3ui4/ (8a4 )+ui8/ (1658 ) } + £ . . { 9 / 1 6 - 3 ^ / (S^4 ) + u ^ / (16a8 ) }]

b 45 = y2 : [Fi(3/(852)-3u. 0/(8g4 )-u ./,/(856 )+u .c./(858 )}+G,{3/(s5 2 )-3u .0/(8g4 )

i2' i4 i2

and

b 55 = ^Ziz ' [Fi{l/(4ö4 )-ui2/(2a6 )+ui4/(458 )}+Gi{l/(4ö4 )-ui2/(2a6 )+u^2/(4S8 )}] .

We have used £ , ^ 2 , and £ to denote, respectively, summation from

to M; i = M + 1 to N; and i = 1 to N . We also have

- x^3 , and use

U ij to denote the estimated j-th moment of a truncated normal variable; more formally we have [see equations

(A7.2)] üi2 = 52 [i-(x:ß)fi/Fi] ü±3 = 52fi [252+(x^ß)2]/F. Si4 = ö2 [352-352 (x^ß)fi/Fi-(x^ß)3fi/Fi) ü = 52fi [8ä4+4ö2 (x’ß)2+(x|ß)4 ]/F U i6 u i7 and u i8 o 2 [15g4-15Q4 (x|3)fi/Fi-5ö2 (xjB)3fi/Fi-(x^ß)5f /F ] o 2f [48a6+24a4 (x^3) 2+6o2 (x |ß) 4+ (xM3)6 ] ö 2 [105a6-105a6 (x !ß)fi/Fi-35ö4 (x M3)3f . j / F ^ a 2 (xM3)5f / F . - (xMS)?f /F ] ~ ~2 2

In the previous expressions, 3 and G denote the MLEs of 3 and o

~2

under H : u. ^ fl/H and G. = F./(l-F.) > where F. is the integral from

O 1 1 1 1 1

~ ~2 . ~2

-oo to x^3 of a N(0,o ) . In addition, f^ is the value of N ( 0 ,g ) at x!3 .

The null hypotheses would be rejected - for large samples1 - if the computed value of LM exceeded the appropriate significance

Nti(1UdII ) 2

point of a Xg+2 • The lengthy expressions that appear in {TOBIT) are not indicative of computational difficulty. The values f and F_^ are easily determined (standard FORTRAN functions exist for these), and, apart from simple products and summations, we only require inverting one (k+l)x(k+l) and a (q+2)x(q+2) matrices. Hence, the computa­

tional details for L M ^ (TOBIT) ma^ ^e rea^ ^ incorporated into computer programmes for the Tobit model.

Particular cases of the above procedure are, firstly, a test for N given H . Here the null hypothesis would be H : c. = c = 0 .

o 1 2

Application of the LM procedure would give a test statistic, denoted by LM.7,monTm. and defined as LM.,,. except that the "row" correspond-

N{TOBIT) NH{TOBIT) * *

ing to a in d^ , and the "fifth row and column" in I would be omitted. Given H and under N , LM r would be asymptotically

/V v 1 UO-L i )

2

distributed as x2 • A second case refers to a test for H given N . Here we would remove, in LM , the first two rows in d„ , and

il/n \1Ud11 ) Z

the third and fourth rows and columns in I obtaining, say, LMn .„nDT„. .

n [1 UdI 1 )

This is equal to the test suggested in Jarque (1981) and under H would be asymptotically distributed as x

q

We now briefly consider the truncated model, where y. = x!(3 + u.

i l l

is restricted to, say, non-negative values, but does not have a number of values clustered at a particular point [see Amemiya (1973)]. In this case, u. > - x!ß , and a test for disturbance truncated NH is obtained by

l l

proceeding as above, but assuming

In applications of the Tobit model, particularly in cross-sectional studies, large samples have been typically available, e.g., N = 735, 2798 and 6366 respectively in the studies of Tobin (1958) , Quester and Greene (1978) and Fair (1978).

g(u ) = exp[ip (ui ) ] / -x! 3

l

exp [ij; (u^) ] du_^

that is, g(u^) is a member of the truncated Pearson family. The log-

likelihood for this model is Z (.) = ln{g(u_^)} which under the null hypothesis reduces to 2 (7.4) 2 N f £(3,g ) = £ p i n 2tf - In i=l ^ (Y.-x!3) a --- — - m F. 2a

Application of LM test to the above truncated model gives equation (7.3) but now in d^ all summations are from i = 1 to N and F./(l-F.) has

2 l i

to be replaced by + 1 ; also, in b^_. (but not in u _ ) we would replace

~ ~2

F_^ and respectively by + 1 and - 1 . Here, 3 and a would be the MLEs obtained by maximizing (7.4). The resulting statistic could be denoted by LM,7r7 , from which "one-directional" tests

1

NH(TRUN)

LMN(TRUN)

and

LMH(TRUN)

Can be obtained b¥ deleting appropriate rows

and columns. As expected, if we set f = 0 , M = N and allow to

tend to unity, LM/ l W

(TOBIT) '

LM/'/

(TOBIT)

and [or' indeed'

LHNH(TRUN) ' ™N(TRUN)

and “ W W ”°Uld redU°e ' resPectively- to

LM , LM^ and LM^ , where the latter are LM tests for

NH

,

N

given

H

, and

H

given

N

in the ordinary regression model (see page 149). In the previous chapter we noted that LM = LM . + LM .

Din DJ n

However, for the LDV models this "additivity" relation no longer holds good.

Statisticians have recently been interested in testing if a set

of observations y^ come from a particular truncated distribution. Until

now, the only available test for this was the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test with

Koziol and Byar (1975)]. Our statistic LM may be used to test

N \1RUN)

observations for truncated N by setting the number of regressors equal to one and x_^ = 1 (i=l, 2,. . . ,N) , thus providing a solution to this statistical problem.

The exact finite sample properties of our test statistics are

2

analytically intractable. In practice we have to use the asymptotic x critical values. Also we cannot use simulated critical values since our test statistics are not invariant of any scale transformation. But this should not be viewed as a serious drawback of our tests. For non-linear models only asymptotic results are available. Since our models are non­ linear even under the null hypothesis it is not possible to have "exact" tests. However from the computational viewpoint the LM tests are quite simple.

In document RODOLFO WALSH: TABÚ Y MITO (página 104-108)