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PROYECCIÓN DE VENTAS

In document Ideas entertainment ltda. (página 70-74)

CAPITULO 5: ESTUDIO ECONOMICO – FINANCIERO

5.4. PROYECCIÓN DE VENTAS

1.c4 e5 2.Nc3 Nc6 3.g3 f5 4.Bg2 Nf6 5.d3 Bb4 6.Bd2 0-0 7.Nf3 d6 8.0-0 a5 9.Nd5 Bxd2 10.Qxd2 Kh8 11.Rac1 Nxd5

After a relatively quiet opening, I manage to complicate the position and the fireworks begin.

12.cxd5 Nb4 13.Qg5 Qd7

An awkward move as my c8-bishop is temporarily unable to develop, but I need to protect the c7-pawn and avoid trading queens, as doing so would simply activate all of his pieces.

14.Bh3

White is committed to the attack, but he loosens the stops on his position with this aggression.

14…Qf7

This move is safe, but it misses the in-between move 14…Nxa2 15.Rc4 Nb4, netting a clean pawn and leaving the b-pawn looking lonely.

15.Qh4 Nxd5 16.Ng5 Qg6 17.e4?!

Better is the simple retreat 17.Bg2. After the text move, White will win the c7-pawn after all, but now I get counterplay on the f-file.

17…fxe4 18.dxe4 Bxh3

And trading these bishops weakens the light squares.

19.Nxh3 Nf6 20.Rxc7 Nxe4

Threatening …Nd2-Nf3 and inducing another weakness. The tables are turning.

21.f4?

Better is the calm and cool 21.Kg2 h6 22.f3 Nc5, when Black stands better but White may be able to hold. After the text move, White will drop the exchange.

21…Nd2 22.Rf2 Qb1+ 23.Kg2 Qe4+ 24.Kg1 Nf3+ 25.Rxf3 Qxf3 26.Qe7

One last gasp of an attack. I still must be careful, but objectively Black is completely winning here.

26…Qe3+ 27.Nf2 Rg8 28.f5 Qf3 29.g4 Raf8 30.Qxd6 e4

Now my passed e-pawn has some say. White runs back to defend, in effect raising the white flag.

31.Qg3 Qe2 32.Rc1 e3 33.Nh3 Rd8 With a decisive invasion. 0-1

Jay Bonin – Norman Rogers U.S. Open 1990

1.d4 Nf6 2.c4 g6 3.Nc3 Bg7 4.e4 d6 5.Nf3 0-0 6.Be2 Nbd7 7.e5

My pet line against 7…Nd7, though nowadays I take on d6 instead of castling on move 8.

7…Ne8 8.0-0 c5 9.Be3 cxd4 10.Bxd4 dxe5 11.Bxe5 Nef6

And we have an open position with opposite-side pawn majorities.

12.Bd4

Keeping the bishop centralized and nullifying its counterpart’s nefarious effects along the long diagonal.

12…a6 13.Re1 Qc7 14.Bf1 Re8 15.Ne5 Else …e7-e5.

15…Nc5 16.Rc1 Bh6

This attempt at aggression allows a cute riposte.

17.Nd5! Qd6

If 17…Nxd5? 18.cxd5 Bxc1 19.Qxc1 f6 20.Nd3, the knight is lost due to the pin on the c-file.

18.b4 Nce4 19.c5

The hits just keep coming. Now 19…Qxd5 20.Bc4! Qd8 21.Nxf7! is embarrassing.

19…Qd8 20.Nb6?!

I counterattack rather than defend, but here this is inaccurate as Black can emerge the exchange ahead with precise play: 20…Bxc1 21.Bc4 Be6 22.Bxe6 fxe6 23.Qd3 Bb2 24.Bxb2 Qxd3 25.Nxd3 Rad8.

20…Bxc1 21.Nxa8 Be6?

Here 21…Bd2! would hang on to the material.

22.Nc7

Deflection. I decide it is better to jettison this knight than to lose my centrally placed bishop.

22…Bd2

Black finds the right move, but one turn too late. With both sides attacking, now the question is who will throw the last punch.

23.Nxe8 Bxe1 24.Nxf6+ exf6 25.Qxe1 Qxd4 26.Nf3 Qd5 27.a3

The smoke has cleared and it looks good for Black as his pieces are active. However, the change in the pawn structure favors me, as Black has compromised his majority into a doubled pawn, while my 3-2 on the queenside remains healthy. So I switch into trading mode and aim to simplify into an endgame with the ladies off the board.

27…Kg7 28.Qe3 Bd7 29.Qd4 Qxd4 30.Nxd4

Mission accomplished. Next step: to target the b7-pawn.

30…f5 31.Bc4 Kf6 32.f4 Taking away the e5 square.

32…Nc3 33.Kf2

My king will have some say here.

33…Nb1 34.Bd5 Bc8 35.Nc2

Temporary defense until my king’s position improves.

35…Nc3 36.Bf3 Ke7 37.Ke3 Ne4 A nice try, but I’m not taking the bait!

38.Kd4 Bd7

Better is 38…Nd2 39.Bd5 Nf1 40.h3 h6 41.a4 Ng3, when Black’s knight is harassing my pawns and his bishop remains faithful to the defense of b7.

39.Ne3

The knight heads to a5. After gradually building up a better position, something’s gotta fall now.

39…Bc6 40.Nc4 f6

Black’s doubled pawn is useless.

41.Na5 Kd7 42.Nxc6 Kxc6 43. a4

Another important in-between move. Black will run out of moves soon.

43…h6 44.g4 h5 45.gxf5 gxf5 46.h4 b6 47.cxb6 Kxb6 48.Bxe4 1-0 Jay Bonin – Steven Jablon

New York 2013

1.d4 d5 2.Bg5 c6 3.c3 Bf5 4.Nd2 Qb6 5.Qb3 e6 6.Ngf3 Nd7 7.e3 Ngf6 8.Be2 h6 9.Bh4 Bd6 10.Bg3 Bxg3 11.hxg3 Qxb3

I never recommend this exchange because of the tactics on the a-file.

12.axb3 Ne4 13.b4 Ndf6 14.Nb3 Ng4 This act of aggression is easily repelled.

15.0-0 a6 16.Nfd2

I could have played b4-b5, undoubling my forward b-pawn, but instead I try to exchange Black’s knights to reach a knight-vs.-bishop position, where my knight will have much more scope.

16…Nxd2 17.Nxd2 0-0-0

And now I force a trade where White’s knight runs rings around Black’s bishop.

18.e4 dxe4 19.Bxg4 Bxg4 20.Nxe4

On my way to c5, where the knight forks b7 and a6.

20…h5 21.f3 Bf5 22.Nc5 h4 23.g4 Bg6 24.Kh2 Rd6

A natural-looking move, but not the best one here. One way to hold steady would be with 24…b6! 25.Ne4 Kb7; or 24…b6! 25.Nxa6 Bd3 26.Rfc1 Kb7 27.b5 Bxb5 28.Nb4, when Black has neutralized any pressure White may have had on the a-file. A riskier line was also possible: 24…e5!? 25.dxe5 Rd2, when Black has counterplay and practical chances, although he would objectively stand slightly worse.

25.Rfe1 Bh7 26.Re5

With the threat of 27.Rh5.

26…Rd5

Answers the threat, but loses differently. Preferable are 26…Rdd8 or 26…Bc2.

27.Rxd5 cxd5 28.b5

The decisive breakthrough. 1-0 Jay Bonin – Daniel Vasserman New York 2014

1.d4 Nf6 2.Nf3 g6 3.c4 Bg7 4.Nc3 0-0 5.e4 d6 6.Be2 e5 7.dxe5 dxe5 8.Qxd8 Rxd8 9.Bg5 c6 10.Nxe5 Re8 11.0-0-0 Rxe5 12. Rd8+ Re8 13.Bxf6 Rxd8 14.Bxd8 Be6

So I come out a pawn ahead but Black starts to get piece activity more quickly than I do.

15.Rd1 Nd7 16.Bg5 Ne5 17.f4 f6

An important in-between move that allows Black to regain his pawn while limiting White’s play. Taking the pawn right away would be a mistake, as 17…Nxc4 would meet with 18.f5.

18.Bh4 Nxc4 19.Bxc4 Bxc4 20.Rd7

While an engine will evaluate this position as nearly dead even, there’s plenty of chess left to be played and, from a practical standpoint, lots of imbalances that need to be considered with every move. Both sides have pawn majorities on opposite wings, and Black’s bishop pair is offset by the white rook on the seventh, which limits his options.

20…b5 21.Bf2 a5 22.b3 Bf1 23.g3 Bg2

It looks like Black has gotten enough out of the position for easy equality.

24.Bb6 b4

Objectively not a bad move, but allowing my knight to have a clear path to invade is precisely the kind of break I’ve been waiting for on the queenside. Psychologically speaking, 24…a4 is a more challenging move for White to face, because White must choose between giving Black a passed pawn right away after exchanging or having his knight kicked away with the impending pawn push 25…b4.

25.Na4 Bxe4 26.Rd8+

Of course. After the trade, I win the a5-pawn and b4 is weak.

26…Rxd8 27.Bxd8 f5 28.Bxa5 Bf8 29.Bb6 Preparing Bc5.

29…Kf7 30.Bc5 Bxc5 31.Nxc5

And, just like that, Black is lost. The b4-pawn will fall.

31…Ke7 32.Nxe4?

I had evaluated that White could win this king-and-pawn endgame, but in fact Black can hold. Better is 32.Na6 h6 33.Nxb4, when White has a clear win.

32…fxe4 33.Kd2 Ke6 34.g4 h5 35.h3 hxg4 36.hxg4 c5??

Up until this point the endgame had been unwinnable for either side, but with this serious misstep Black falls into Zugzwang. Drawing was 36…Kd6 37.Ke2 Kc5 38.Kf2 Kd4 39.Ke2 Kc5 40.Ke3 Kd5 41.g5 c5 42.Kd2 Ke6 43.Ke2 Kd6 44.Ke3 Kd5 45.Kd2 Ke6 46.Ke2, when

neither side can make progress.

37.Ke3 Kd5 38.g5

The only move to win. Either 38.f5 or 38.Ke2 merely draw.

38…c4 39.bxc4+ Kxc4 40.f5 White’s pawns run faster.

40…gxf5 41.g6 f4+ 42.Kxe4 1-0 Jay Bonin – James Jeffrey

New York 2013

1.d4 Nf6 2.Nf3 g6 3.c4 Bg7 4.Nc3 0-0 5.e4 d6 6.Be2 Nbd7 7.e5 My favorite move against 6…Nbd7.

7…Ne8 8.exd6 cxd6

We’ve reached a nice and sterile position that could have arisen from Alekhine’s Defense.

9.0-0 Ndf6 10.d5 Bg4 11.Nd4 Bxe2 12.Ndxe2?!

Better is 12.Qxe2, defending the c4-pawn with Her Majesty.

12…Rc8 13.Qd3

The position requires precision. While 13.b3 is also OK here, I prefer to cover the weak pawn with my queen, which also covers the e4 square and prevents the knight from reaching greener pastures on c5, as would happen after 13.b3 Ne4 14.Bb2 Qa5 15.Qd3 Nc5, when Black has annoying pressure on the queenside.

13…Ng4 14.b3 Ne5 15.Qh3 h5

He wants to bring his knight back to g4, but the price – weakening g6 – is too high.

16.Qe3

Now I regroup, with the idea of exploiting this new weakness, though 16.Bg5 or 16.Be3 are also good here.

16…a6 17.h3

Controlling the g4 square so that I don’t have to fret about his knight’s arriving there.

17…Nf6

At last this knight awakens from its slumber, though it would have been better to let it rest a while longer and strive for queenside counterplay. The following sharp line would lead to a dull ending: 17…b5! 18.cxb5 axb5 19.Nxb5 Nc4 20.bxc4 Bxa1 21.Na7 Rxc4 22.Nc6 Rxc6 23.dxc6 Qa8 24.Qb6 Qxa2 25.Be3 Be5=.

18.Bb2 Re8?!

Again, 18…b5 is called for.

19.f4 Ned7 20.f5

Now Black’s king safety will be compromised.

20…Ne5 21.fxg6 Nxg6 22.Ng3 b5

Here Black finds the right idea, but a few moves too late, as my attack comes quicker.

Perhaps he should have gambled with 22…e6.

23.Nf5 bxc4

I don’t care about the queenside any longer and don’t bother defending it – I’m after bigger game!

24.Nxg7 Kxg7 25.Ne4 cxb3 26.Qg5 Qb6+ 27.Kh1 Rc2 28.Bxf6+ exf6 29.Qxf6+ Kh6 30.Nxd6 1-0

Decisive material loss is unavoidable.

Jay Bonin – Gerald Towns New York 2013

1.d4 Nf6 2.Nf3 g6 3.c4 Bg7 4.Nc3 d6 5.e4 0-0 6.Be2 c6 7.0-0 Qc7

A rather offbeat line that Gerald likely employed to avoid the KID Exchange Variation.

8.Bf4

With this move, I provoke an aggressive response.

8…Nh5 9.Be3 e5

Consistent, but now I strike.

10.c5

Breaking up the center. This is a key idea I use when facing the King’s Indian Defense.

From a psychological angle, KID devotees like to play a closed position where they have time to build up an attack on the kingside. Knowing this, I favor lines that open the center and deny them their fun, such as the Exchange Variation or (as in this case) the idea with 10.c5.

Objectively, these positions are often stale and symmetrical; however, I’m happy with the resulting endgames and practically speaking many KID players quickly go astray by trying to generate an attack from a dead-level position.

10…dxc5 11.dxe5 Rd8

Or 11…Bxe5 12.Nxe5 Qxe5 13.f4, followed by Bxh5.

12.Nd2

The h5-knight is toast.

12…Qxe5 13.f4 Qd6?

Black doubles on the open file, but falls into a terrible position. 13…Qe7 14.Bxh5 Bd4!

15.Qe2 gxh5 is fine for Black.

14.e5!

I still have to be careful, as the aggressive 14.g4 meets with 14…Bd4!, when Black has solved all of his problems and emerges with the better position. The text move buys a tempo off the queen while at the same time denying Black’s bishop the d4 square. Now Black’s kingside will be shattered after 14…Qe7 15.Bxh5 gxh5 16.Qxh5.

14…Bxe5??

This is sheer panic, though. Better to move away and pray.

15.fxe5 Qxe5 16.Nc4

He probably didn’t see this move either.

16…Rxd1 17.Nxe5 Rxa1 18.Rxa1 Ng7 19.Rd1

Not even three pawns for a piece saves Black here, as he lags behind in development.

19…Ne6 20.Ne4 Na6 21.Bh6 1-0

It’s mate after Nf6 and Nf7#. The Bonin Knights strike again!

Jay Bonin – Carl Brandon Boor Philadelphia 2003

1.d4 d5 2.Bg5 f6 3.Bh4

These days, I prefer to retreat the bishop to f4 to avoid finding myself in a worse position, as in this game.

3…Nh6 4.f3 c5 5.c3 cxd4 6. cxd4 Nf5 7.Bf2 e5

Black already has an excellent position and White is almost behind in development, despite having made the first move in the game only seven short moves ago. My opponent makes the mistake of trying to simplify quickly, and misses a tactic on move 15.

8.e3 Bb4+ 9.Nc3 exd4 10.exd4 0-0 11.Bd3 Re8+ 12.Nge2 Nc6 13.0-0 Ne3

At first glance, this looks like an active move that forces some liquidation. However, this works out badly for Black. As a practical matter, he should just finish development with 13…

Be6 and a simple level game.

14.Bxe3 Rxe3 15.Nf4 Nxd4?

Black has fallen too far behind in development for such pawn-snatching, and it turns out that this move is a blunder plain and simple, as it drops the exchange. Better is 15…Bxc3 16.bxc3 Qd6 17.g3 Re7 18.Qb3 Be6 19.Qc2 g5 20.Nxe6 Qxe6, when Black has managed to finish development though he still stands slightly worse.

16.Ncxd5 Qd6 17.Nxe3 Qxf4 18.Nd5 Now it’s easy.

18…Qd6 19.Nxb4 Qxb4 20.Qe1 Qa4 21.b3 Qd7 22.Rd1

The threat of 23.Bc4 is too much to bear, for instance 22…Qf7 23.Bc4 Be6 24.Rxd4. 1-0

M

Chapter 6

In document Ideas entertainment ltda. (página 70-74)