Régimen de regulación y control

106

means that the company should keep the vehicle for seven years ,start replacing at the beginning of the eighth year and start keeping again till the end of the planned horizon. More so, Toyota Hiace comes with the optimal policy of (K,K,K,K,K,K,K,K,R,K,K,K,K,K)with the net profit of ₦33,837,700, a pointer to the fact that the company should keep the vehicle for eight years and start replacing it from the beginning of the ninth year, then keep again till the end of the planned period. Finally, Taxi Cab comes with an optimal policy of (K,K,K,K,K,K,K,K,R,K,K,K,K,K) and a corresponding net profit of

₦15,482,395, an indicator that the company should keep the vehicle for eight years and start replacing at the beginning of the ninth year ,keep again till the end of the planned horizon. Salvage value was not considered because the vehicles in question were not subjected to catastrophic failure.

107

Table 4.3.1a(i): The actual data collected and forecasted results of maintenance costs of Siennaover the given period1000

Sienna 1900 2440 2905 323 0

3700 3920 4405 4610 4880 4882 5559.93 5900.44 6240.95 6581.45 6921.9 6

Years 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15

Table 4.3.1a(i)is the actual data collected and forecasted results of the maintenance costs of Sienna over the given period. The trend showed that the maintenance costs of sienna vehicles increase as the age of the said vehicles increases.

Figure 4.3.1a(i)represented the Trend analysis plot of maintenance cost for Sienna Vehicle over the given period.

Figure 4.3.1a(i):Trend Analysis Plot for Sienna (Maintenance costs)

Figure 4.3.1a(i)showed the trend forecast of the Sienna maintenance costs of the vehicle over a given period. From theplot it is observed that the maintenance cost of Sienna vehiclesincrease as the age of the said vehicles increases.

15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 70000

60000

50000

40000

30000

20000

Index

SIENNA (MAINTENANCE)

MA PE 4

MA D 1296

MSD 2753299 A ccuracy Measures

A ctual Fits Forecasts Variable

Trend Analysis Plot for SIENNA (MAINTENANCE) Linear Trend Model

Yt = 18144 + 3405*t

108

Table 4.3.1a(ii):The actual data collected and forecasted results of maintenance costs of Peugeot Expert over the given period1000.

Peugeot ^{2090 2130 2590 2900 3050 3310 3505 3790 3900 3980 4205.75 4328.73 4433.73 4520.73 4709.23}

Years 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15

Table 4.3.1a(ii) is the actual data and forecasted results of maintenance costs of Peugeot Expert vehicles over the given periods. The trend revealed that the maintenance costs increase as the Peugeot expert vehicles age

Figure 4.3.1a(ii)clarified the Trend forecast analysis plot of maintenance costs for Peugeot Expert Vehicle over the given periods.

Figure 4.3.1a(ii): Trend Analysis Plot for Peugeot Expert (Maintenance)vs.Yrs

Figure 4.3.1a(ii)is the trend forecast of the maintenance costs ofPeugeot Expert vehicles over the given period. The chart also showed a continuous increase in future maintenance cost of Peugeot vehicles with age, which goes a long way to show that as the vehicle is aging it costs more to maintain it.

Table 4.3.1a(iii) :The actual data and forecasted results of maintenance costs of J5 over the given period1000.

J5 2337 2411 3665.4 3811 ^{3990 4050 4410 4600 4750 4820 5007.42 5237.31 5467.26 5697.08 5738.34}

Years ^{1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15}

15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 45000

40000

35000

30000

25000

20000

Index

PEUGEOT EXPERT (MAINTENANCE)

MA PE 2

MA D 648

MSD 603977 A ccuracy Measures

A ctual F its F orecasts Variable

Trend Analysis Plot for PEUGEOT EXPERT (MAINTENANCE) Quadratic Trend Model

Yt = 16654 + 3299*t - 90.0*t**2

109

Table 4.3.1a(iii)disclosed the actual data and forecasted results of the maintenance costs of J5 vehicles over the given period.The trend revealed that the maintenance costs of Peugeot expert vehicles is directly proportional to the age of the said vehicles.

Figure 4.3.1a(iii)showed the double exponentialsmoothing plot of maintenance cost for J5Vehicle over the given period.

Figure 4.3.1a(iii): Double Exponential Smoothing Plot for J5 (Maintenance) vs.Yrs.

The double exponential smoothingplot of the maintenance costs of J5 vehicles under the reviewed period is presented in Figure 4.3.1a(iii) . It is observed, from the chart that the maintenance costs of J5 increase with an increase in the age of the vehicles under investigation.

Table 4.3.1a(iv) :The actual data and forecasted results of maintenance costs of Ford Bus vehicles over the given period 1000.

Ford ^{2165.4 2297.7 3115.8 3488.7 3600 3690 3780 3905 4160 4195 4266.03 4432.78 4599.53 4766.29 4932.3} 5

Years ^{1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15}

Table 4.3.1a(iv)showedthe actual data and forecasted results of the maintenance costs of Ford Bus vehicles over the given period. The outcome points to the fact that it takes more to maintain a vehicle as it ages.

15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 80000 70000 60000 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000

Index

J5 (MAINTENANCE)

A lpha (lev el) 0.615117 Gamma (trend) 0.038769

Smoothing C onstants

MA PE 10

MA D 3312

MSD 23382738 A ccuracy Measures

A ctual Fits Forecasts 95.0% PI Variable

Smoothing Plot for J5 (MAINTENANCE) Double Exponential Method

110

Figure 4.3.1a(iv) is the Double ExponentialSmoothing plot of maintenance cost for Ford BusVehicle over the given period.

Figure 4.3.1a(iv): Double Exponential Smoothing Plot for FORD BUS (MAINTENANCE)

Figure 4.3.1a(iv)exhibited double exponential smoothingforecast of the maintenance costs of Ford bus vehicles over the given periods.. From theresult,it is observed that there is a continuous increase in future maintenance cost of Ford bus vehicle with increase in time.

Table 4.3.1a(v):The actual data and forecasted results of maintenance costs of Toyota Hiaceover the given period1000.

Toyot a

2205 2400 2510 2790 3020 3330 3515 3640 3713.2 3802.1 3872.78 3894.21 3915.64 3937.0 8

4113.3 6

Years ^{1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15}

Table 4.3.1a(v)unveiledthe actual data and forecasted results of the maintenance costs of Toyota Hiace vehicles over the given periods. The trend point to the fact that the maintenance costs of Toyota Hiace vehicles increase as years increase, which means that it takes more to sustain a vehicle as it ages.

15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 80000 70000 60000 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000

Index

FORD BUS (MAINTENANCE)

A lpha (lev el) 1.21676 Gamma (trend) 0.03664

Smoothing C onstants

MA PE 8

MA D 2228

MSD 13082778 A ccuracy Measures

A ctual Fits Forecasts 95.0% PI Variable

Smoothing Plot for FORD BUS (MAINTENANCE) Double Exponential Method

111

Figure 4.3.1a(v)depicted the Double ExponentialSmoothing plot of maintenance costs forToyota Hiace vehicles over the given period.

Figure 4.3.1a(v): Double Exponential Smoothing Plot for Toyota Hiace (Maintenance).

Figure 4.3.1a(v)represented the plot of Maintenance costs of Toyota Hiace vehicles against the year counts using the double exponential smoothing model.

The result showed that the cost of maintenance increases as the year increases.This is a pointer to the fact that as the vehicles age increase,the more maintenance costs incurred.

Table 4.3.1a(vi):The actual data and forecasted results of maintenance costs of Taxi cab vehiclesover the given periods1000.

Taxi Cab

1890 2080 2160 2310 2500 2910 3012 3220 3370 3405 3875.31 4158.07 4461.46 4786.99 5136.27

Years 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15

Table 4.3.1a(vi)displayed the actual data and forecasted results of the maintenance costs of Taxi Cab vehicles over the given periods. It is observed that the maintenance costs directly affect the age of the vehicles.

15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 40000

35000

30000

25000

20000

Index

TOYOTA HIACE (MAINTENANCE)

A lpha (lev el) 0.26526 Gamma (trend) 4.77337

Smoothing C onstants

MA PE 2

MA D 642

MSD 559393 A ccuracy Measures

A ctual Fits Forecasts 95.0% PI Variable

Smoothing Plot for TOYOTA HIACE (MAINTENANCE) Double Exponential Method

112

Figure 4.3.1a(vi)is the Trend analysis plot of maintenance cost forTaxi cab vehicle over the given periods.

Figure 4.3.1a(vi): Trend Analysis Plot for TAXI CAB (MAINTENANCE)

The figure 4.3.1a(vi) is a display of the plot of Maintenance cost of Taxi Cab against the year counts using Trend analysis model. The output showed that the cost of maintenance increases as the years increase, a pointer to the fact that more would be used to maintain taxi cab vehicles as they age.

4.3.1b:Results of the Forecasting models forReplacement Costs of Vehicle

In document Análisis de los fundamentos económicos de la Ley Orgánica de Regulación y Control del Poder de Mercado. (página 35-37)