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Analysing volatilities for tanker freight returns is a major issue for participants in freight markets. The understanding of freight volatility measures is vital in improving ship- owners‟ profitability, and reducing financial risk exposure for investors and shipping portfolio managers. Furthermore, the vast and growing shipping derivative markets provide the necessary hedging tools for ship-owners and charterers to manage their freight risk exposures, but only provided those exposures are fully-understood.

This chapter initially attempts to measure the level of risk exposure in the tanker spot freight markets by examining the volatility structure of five major tanker routes. This is performed using non-parametric, parametric and semi-parametric approaches that are based on different GARCH structures to measure conditional freight volatility. We also attempt to capture tanker freight sensitivity to market shocks, by decomposing market shocks coefficients parameters, in the conditional volatility measure, into positive and negative components. In our analysis we come across clear evidence of clusters in daily freight returns, as others have done. Therefore, first, we introduce a two-state Markov regime-switching conditional variance framework to investigate the possibility of two different volatility structures in shipping tanker freight markets. Second, we investigate the two-state Markov-switching conditional variance model for the best match from the GARCH-family to capture the dynamics within these distinct freight volatility states. The results are profound.

Shipping freight price movements are considered to be mean-reverting in the long run, and subject to spikes caused by shocks in supply and demand balance, see Adland and Cullinane (2006) and Koekebakker et al (2006). With a nonstorable feature, huge capital requirements, challenging volatility levels, seasonality and sensitivity to energy prices and market sentiment, the involvement in shipping freight markets provide huge challenges for

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all participants. Therefore, exploring and developing a risk measurement framework that fits such extreme market conditions is paramount important. Such attempts are scarce in shipping literature.

On that note, one widely-used tool for the measurement of risk exposure is value-at- risk (VaR). VaR methods for traditional financial markets are well documented in Dowd (1998), Jorion (2006), Holton (2003), Manganelli and Engle (2004) and Engle (1993), whilst energy VaR is detailed in Clewlow and Strickland (2000) and Duffie et al (1998). A general introduction of VaR for shipping markets can be found in Alizadeh and Nomikos (2009). Angelidis and Skiadopolous (2008), attempt to investigate risks in shipping freights returns using a VaR approach, where they conclude that the simplest non-parametric models should be used to measure market risk. A similar investigation of the volatility of freight returns in the dry bulk shipping markets was conducted by Jing et al (2008). They find that asymmetric characteristics are distinct for different vessel sizes and market conditions. A paper by Kavussanos and Dimitrakopoulos (2007), investigates the issue of tanker market risk measurement, by employing an Extreme Value concept and a Filtered Historical Simulation approach. They conclude that Extreme Value and Filtered Historical Simulation yield accurate daily risk forecasts and are the best models for short term daily risk forecasts.

Another paper presented at the annual IAME in Copenhagen by Nomikos et al

(2009) investigates the volatility of shipping freight rates using a FIGARCH model structure, for measuring volatility for tanker and bulk freight rates. They compared their model for calculating VaR against other conditional volatility structures such as SGARCH and IGARCH. They conclude that different models are suitable for different size of vessels regardless of trade. This, according to the authors, is an indication of some form of size effect where smaller vessels illustrate more persistence in volatility. They also find strong evidence of fractional integration in freight rate volatility. In general, empirical maritime researchers have disagreed on the most suitable measure for freight risk using the VaR methodology. This study attributes these dissimilarities to the postulate that freight rate returns switch between distinctive volatility structures.

VaR measurement is based on the volatility of the portfolio in question and freight volatility had always been ambiguous for shipping market participants. Therefore, this study adopts models that are capable of dealing with conditional volatility (standard

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deviation) of the time series, such models are the GARCH-family, which are presented and analysed in a later section. The conventional approaches to estimate VaR in practice can be broadly classified as parametric and non-parametric. Under the parametric approach, a specific distribution for returns must be presumed, with a Normal distribution being a common choice. In contrast, non-parametric approaches make no assumptions regarding the return distribution. These measures are based on historical information and can be classified into three methods, historical simulation approach, Monte Carlo Simulation method and Variance-Covariance methods, Sadeghi and Shavvalpour (2006). For details of advantages and disadvantages of each method see Crouhy et al (2006).

In addition, an important method for improving VaR estimates in shipping freight market lies in extreme value theory (EVT) measurement, which specifically targets extreme returns. Focusing on the left side of return distribution rather than the entire distribution, by definition, VaR-EVT measures the economic impact of rare events. Numerous applications of VaR-EVT have been implemented in the financial literature. Embechts et al (1997) and Reiss and Thomas (2001) provide a comprehensive overview of EVT as a risk management tool. Longin et al (1995) examines extreme movements in U.S. stock prices and shows that the extreme returns obey a Fréchet fat-tailed distribution. Ho et al (2000) and Gençay and Selçuk (2004) apply EVT to emerging stock markets which have been affected by a recent financial crisis. They report that EVT dominates other parametric models in forecasting VaR, especially for more extreme returns tail quantiles. Gençay et al (2003) reach similar conclusions for the Istanbul Stock Exchange Index (ISE-100). Müller et al (1998) compare the EVT method with a time-varying GARCH model for foreign exchange rates. Bali (2003) adopted the EVT approach to derive VaR for U.S Treasury yield changes. Andrews and Thomas (2002) combine historical simulation with thresh-old- based EVT model to fit the tails of the empirical profit and loss distribution of electricity. They report that the model fits the empirical tails better than the Normal distribution. Rozario (2002) derives VaR for Victorian half-hourly electricity returns using a thresh-old-based EVT model. While the model performs well for moderate tails covering to one per cent, it struggles when  (1-p) is below one per cent, a fact Rozario attributes to the model‟s failure to account for clustering in the data. It is important to note that EVT relies on an assumption

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of i.i.d.2, Chan and Gray (2006). Clearly this is not the case for shipping freight return series, and arguably financial returns in general. One approach to this problem is the GARCH-EVT model provided by McNeil and Frey (2000). The advantage of this combination lies in its ability to capture conditional heteroskedasticity in the data through a GARCH framework, while at the same time modelling the extreme tail behaviour through an EVT method. As such, the GARCH-EVT approach might be regarded as semi- parametric, Manganelli and Engle (2004). Bali and Neftci (2003) apply the GARCH-EVT approach to U.S. short-term interest rates and show that the model yields more accurate estimates of VaR than that obtained from a Student t-distribution GARCH model. Fernandez (2005) and Bystrőm (2004) also find that the GARCH-EVT model performs better than the parametric models in forecasting VaR for various international stock markets. In an energy application, Bystrőm (2004) employs a GARCH-EVT framework to NordPool hourly electricity returns and finds that extreme GARCH-filtered residuals obey a Fréchet distribution. Furthermore, the GARCH-EVT model produces more accurate estimates of extreme tails than a pure GARCH model. At present, applications of EVT to estimate VaR in shipping market are sparse.

An important contribution of this study is the proposal of a two-state Markov regime- switching distinctive conditional variance procedure. Markov-switching models were originally introduced by Hamilton (1988, 1989) and since then there has been a wide range of contributions, including Engle and Hamilton (1990), Hamilton and Susmel (1994), Hamilton and Lin (1996), and Gray (1996).

As far as we are aware this is the first attempt to model freight returns through a two-state Markov-switching distinctive conditional variance model, that is based on the assumption that volatilities within tanker freight returns switch between, higher and lower freight volatility state regimes. Similar, to financial returns, the evidence of volatility clustering is apparent in freight returns. Thus, assuming that conditional freight variance switches between two-state regimes, one of higher freights volatility and another of lower freights volatility is an appropriate assumption. In other words, if freight returns are subject to shifts between two state regimes, the conditional variance would change between two distinct conditional variance structures. Abouarghoub and Biefang-Frisancho Mariscal

2 _{i.i.d. stands for independently and identically normally distributed with mean equal to zero and variance}

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(2011) study the volatility structure of the tanker freight market and its exposure to market shocks and find evidence of different volatility structures within tanker freight returns. They conclude that shipping tanker freight returns shift between higher and lower volatility regimes, and that market shocks in general increase the volatility of freight returns and has a lasting effect.

Furthermore, it is well documented in the shipping economics literature that shipping spot freight prices are determined through the interaction of demand and supply of freight services, for example see Alizadeh and Nomikos (2011), in other words, conditions of perfect competition prevail in shipping freight market, and demand for shipping services (freight) is an inelastic derived demand, due to the fact that freight costs represents a small fraction of the final price of transported goods, this demand is influenced by numerous factors, such as world economic conditions, international seaborne trade, seasonality, distance to transport goods and the size of cargo consignment. On the other hand, supply of shipping services measured in tonne-miles is highly elastic at low freight rate levels and highly inelastic at high freight rate levels. Supply also depends on factors such as; stock of fleet ready to be employed, productivity of the shipping building market, level of activity in the scraping market and current prevailing freight rate prices. For a more detailed documentation see Stopford (2009)3.

Therefore, the concept of incorporating the change in freight market conditions in volatility models to enhance the performance of such models in capturing the dynamics of freight volatility has been recognised in maritime literature. For example Alizadeh and Nomikos (2009) state that the freight market is characterised as a bimodal market, due to the shape of the supply and the demand functions for shipping services. On the one hand, during an excess of tonnage supply, freight rates are low, which means that shocks to the market can be observed by spare capacity, thus, the market has distinctly low volatility. On the other hand, during scarcity of tonnage supply, freight rates are high, which means that markets are sensitive to shocks and the trading fleet is fully employed, thus, the market is distinctly volatile. Thus, in maritime literature lower freight volatility and higher freight volatility conditions are associated with the elastic and inelastic parts of the freight supply curve. Therefore, the proposed two-state Markov-switching distinctive conditional variance model aims to capture the dynamics within the lower freight volatility

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and higher freight volatility states that correspond to the elastic and inelastic parts of the freight supply curve, respectively.

Furthermore, this chapter focuses on measuring tanker freight volatility, with the aim of establishing a framework for measuring freight risk exposure in tanker spot freight markets. One controversial tool used widely in the banking sector as a threshold for risk measurement is Value-at-Risk (VaR), which, undoubtedly is the industry benchmark for risk measurement. This is simply because VaR summarises risk in a single number that can be easily communicated and easily understood. Jorion‟s (2006, p. 106) definition of this risk measure is “VaR is the worst loss over a target horizon, such that there is a low,

prespecified probability that the actual loss will be larger”. Thus, the VaR of a particular

portfolio is defined as the maximum loss on a portfolio and this definition consists of two quantitative factors, the holding period and the confidence level. In other words, VaR is a technique which uses statistical analysis of historical market trends and volatilities to estimate the likelihood that a given portfolio losses will exceed a certain amount. VaR methods for traditional financial markets are well documented in Dowd (1998), Duffie and Pan (1997) and Jorion (2006), whilst energy VaR is detailed in Clewlow and Strickland (2000) and Eydeland in Wolyniec (2003), for electricity markets Kam and Philip (2006) undertake a VaR approach, using a number of parametric and non-parametric models where they conclude that an EVT-based model is a useful technique for forecasting VaR. A general introduction to VaR for shipping markets can be found in Alizadeh and Nomikos (2009). Another attempt to investigate shipping freight risk using a VaR approach was conducted by Angelidis and Skiadopolous (2008), where they conclude that the simplest non-parametric models should be used to measure market risk for shipping freight rates. In their work they attempt to measure market risk for freight rates through a number of parametric and non-parametric approaches, as well as adapting an Extreme Value Theory method, for four Baltic exchange indices; the Baltic dry index (BDI), the 4 time charter average Baltic Panamax index (4 TC Avg BPI), the 4 time charter average Baltic Capesize index (4 TC Avg BCI) and the dirty tanker index (TD3). They conclude that the simplest non-parametric models are superior methods for calculating freight risk. The only exception occurs in the case of tanker freight rates, which matches the findings of this study. Thus, they state that freight rate risk is higher in the tanker markets than in the dry sector.

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In summary, the few papers that investigate freight dynamics have disagreed on the most appropriate measure for conditional freight volatility and consequently freight risk measures. This study attributes this dissimilarities in maritime literature to the possibility of freight returns switching between distinct conditional volatility state regimes4 and each state has it‟s define characteristics. Furthermore, approved conditional variance models in the literature that provide the best results and forecasts are models that capture the general behaviour within freight returns. This can be evidence of embedded models within the main approved conditional volatility framework. Therefore, this study aims to investigate the validity of the previous hypothesis.

4 _{There is a possibility of more than two states, this study investigates the possibility of two states not}

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