CAPÍTULO V: DISCUSIONES, CONCLUSIONES Y RECOMENDACIONES
5.3. Recomendaciones
Around Australia, coastal areas have reported high population growth rates, and estimates are that the non-metro coastal population increased cumulatively by 11.6%, as compared to the 9% for the whole of Australia over 2004 to 2009. WA was the state with the highest growth of 3.7%, followed by Queensland increasing by 3.1%, and Victoria by 2.4% over the period 2004-2009 (ABS 2010). Even higher rates of population growth are predicted for coastal regional centers of WA over 2010 to 2030, with that in Pilbara (Karratha and Port Hedland) increasing by 52%, Kimberley by 42%; and the Geraldton and Gascoyne (including Exmouth) increasing by 22% (Deloitte Access Economics 2011). Population in coastal areas of Australia are projected to grow by 94% by 2050, raising the current population in these areas from 6.8 million to 13.2 million (NSCT 2011).
The presence of major oil and gas industries in the Exmouth area, in addition to the possible growth from amenity migration has many potential environmental, social and economic implications. Local councils are under pressure to meet the
3According to the Australian Building Codes Board (2012), the finished floor level of habitable rooms must be above the Flood Hazard Level, unless otherwise specified by the authority having jurisdiction. The Flood Hazard Level represents the height of the flood level associated with a defined flood event relative to a specified datum (Defined Flood Level) plus the height above the lowest possible entry point during flooding or large waves (freeboard). The footing system of a structure must provide the required support to prevent flotation, collapse or significant permanent movement resulting from the flood actions.
infrastructure and service requirements of these growing populations, especially in small and scattered locations around the state. Councils are constrained by funding, which, in turn, creates pressure to develop residential areas to increase revenue that can be obtained from council rate payments (Berwick 2007).
Disaster management practitioners face a unique challenge in remote communities such Exmouth, as there are several contributory factors that increase vulnerability, including location in a hazardous region, and a small population that will only support a limited range and level of services and facilities. Food and building costs are significantly higher compared to urban or larger regional centres, and housing shortage and limited basic infrastructure generally results in a lower standard of living. Local government faces the dilemma of additional demands for risk management, and local communities are constrained in their capacity to successfully mitigate against disaster-risk.
Coastal land in its original, undeveloped form has innate features of resilience that factor in as intrinsic economic values that that go beyond its value as real-estate alone. In a coastal area that is prone to cyclonic risk, as at Exmouth, these include topographical features, such as the direction the shoreline faces, the presence of coastal sand-dunes and flood detention areas, and coastal vegetation forming a barrier against storm-surge flowing further inland (UNEP 2009, UNISDR 2009).
While these values are usually not able to be calculated in monetary terms, they do translate into tangible benefits that people gain. Climate change and increased risk along the coast adds a further dimension to these values in the form of safety from cyclonic storm-surge inundation.
Development of coastal real-estate can change these disaster-mitigating attributes.
The terrain is altered and land compacted to make it more suitable for construction.
Compaction of the land to improve it for construction can result in flood detention areas losing their infiltration capacity, so that flood waters are no longer able to be absorbed into the ground. Water ways and vegetation are altered to improve the aesthetic attributes of the land. These improvements are reflected in the price of developed land, in proportion to the changes that have been made. Value is then added when a house is constructed on this land. Essentially, all these changes are reflected in the price differential of the developed land as against a comparable area of undeveloped land.
Just as the improvements of coastal development factor into increasing the price of land, the harmful effects imposed on the land must similarly factor into reducing the price of land. If, for instance the loss of safety from natural hazards is not incorporated as a cost in land development, then in economic terms, it remains as what is called a negative externality. This is the case with the Exmouth marina development, where the town faces increased cyclonic storm-surge inundation risk in previously unaffected areas (Western Australian Government, DoW & SKM 2007).
Chapter two discussed the concept of market failure, which is one of the dominant themes in environmental economics. There are various potential consequences of the market failure at Exmouth in relation to the development of the marina. Canals have been built to replace the natural flood retentive functions and physical buffering provided by the dunes. In the case of a major cyclonic storm-surge inundation,
additional resources will be needed for evacuation and emergency rescue. Long-term reconstruction of not just private property, but also public infrastructure such as roads and power lines, also has to be factored in. There is also potential flood risk to other parts of the town as a result of the construction across natural flood drainage pathways for the marina development. All of these factor in as costs to the rest of society, resulting in a situation of economic inefficiency. Market failures will exist when the price of coastal land does not provide an incentive to curtail loss of disaster-mitigating environmental functions.
Risk is also created by users of coastal land, i.e. property owners of newly developed land, not paying the ‘real’ price for this land, and not taking into account diminished coastal resilience resulting from their actions. This externality is passed on as a societal cost, where the damages of cyclonic storm-surge inundation are essentially borne by the local government, who also pay for flood-mitigating structures (Western Australian Government, DoW & SKM 2007). Post-cyclone costs resulting from this externality include costs of evacuation and compensation payments to affected households. Although these costs may be relatively low in a small town such as Exmouth, they can be very high for large coastal settlements, such as Queensland that were affected by flooding and storm-surge inundation such as those in early 2011.
Another market failure can result from asymmetry of information, when property developers are more informed about the risks associated with coastal land compared to property buyers. This can create an imbalance of power in transactions, where if buyers were fully aware of their exposure, they might not have been willing to meet
the developer’s price on the property or even purchase the property.
Since cyclone Vance in 1999, Exmouth has not experienced a major cyclone event.
Gissing et al. (2010) discussing flood risk, in general, in Australia, including cyclonic storm-surge risk, have pointed out the dangers of complacency about potential risks in areas where there have not been recent extreme events. The lack of recent risk management experience may lead to complacency with regard to coastal risk mitigation. The challenge is, therefore, to ensure that town-planning and development continues to be risk-resilient.
Crucial function of the coastal ecosystem has been lost at Exmouth as a result of the construction of the marina. Infilling for construction has resulted in a loss of the natural flood detention function in the area behind the dunes (Western Australian Government, DoW & SKM 2007). The natural drainage lines whereby inland flooding and cyclonic storm-surge inundation can flow back into the ocean have been reconfigured and older parts of the townsite have been subject to increased risk (Western Australian Government, DoW & SKM 2007). The extent of this vulnerability to cyclonic storm-surge inundation is evident in the next chapter.