In light of the above, one could say that the current security situation in the Gulf region, with
the end of 2007, faces many challenges that have the same features, which is the ability of the
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the regional environment. However, there is a clear link between them, regional challenges
most of which are a product of the US invasion of Iraq, and linked failure of the US policies
in dealing with the post-war period.
The security situation in Iraq has seen some improvement as a result of reduced operations of
terrorist groups, though the situation is still highly volatile. This may be due to the state of
lawlessness, which took control of the situation over the years and which abated, but did not
quite finish, and this is due to the changes of the map of terrorist groups, being able to
regroup under different names and logos, and a source of risk here is the relationship between
some of these groups and some terrorist elements in neighbouring countries.
The Iranian nuclear crisis is one of the most complex files of the security in the
region, which have serious developments on the security of the Middle East in general, and
the security of the Gulf states in particular. This issue has seen important developments to
solve it or at least postpone it. A report, which was issued by the Schindler (2007), which
pointed out that Tehran stopped its nuclear weapons programme in 2003 and the importance
of this report in postponing US plans to strike Iran. This is because it confirmed beyond any
doubt that Iran was not a threat to US national security, and then there is no need to target
Iran under the framework of a strategy of pre-emptive attack as adopted by the Bush
administration after the events of 9/11. As well as the development in Iran's relations with the
Gulf states, that the previous Iranian President Ahmadinejad participated in the twenty-eighth
GCC summit, which was held in Doha, the beginning of the month of December 2007.
Finally, there is the international opposition, represented by Russia and China, which stood
against the aims of the USA to target Tehran.
Despite these positive developments, the Iranian nuclear programme remains viable to
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the Iranian nuclear programme is not a peaceful programme, and that Tehran represents the
biggest concern on the security and stability in the Middle East. Moreover, doubt and
suspicion on Iranian relations with the Gulf states and the ignoring of the issue of the three
UAE islands, and to emphasise that the Gulf is Persian.
The new balance of power after the Third Gulf War in 2003, as is well known, there is
a new balance of power, temporarily tending to some extent in favour of the GCC states
compared to Iraq and the situation of the Iraqi army. On the other side, Iran as a regional
power in the region compared to all of Iraq and the GCC states, these security situations may
not achieve security and stability in the region, especially if Iran succeeds in developing
nuclear weapons, it will have negative repercussions on the security and stability of the Gulf
region. Herein, is the opportunity for Iran to play the role of regional hegemonic state that
dominates the surrounding area, in order to achieve its vital interests, particularly in the area
of control of the Gulf waters and marine outlets (Fawcett 2013).
The imbalance of power may be a justification for the continued US presence in the
region, to achieve a kind of balance, but the issue raised by this situation is the lack of
guarantees for Gulf states that the USA will continue to play this role, as well as the Iranian
pressure in order to employ this situation to achieve its strategic interests in the region, also.
This US presence does not have the acceptance of people, which gives it the legitimacy that
is needed (Interview No 11). Hence, this situation is based upon the current balance of power
which is subject to many influences that may not be directly linked to the region. It also
carries significant risks to the security of the region. In addition, this situation raises a big
question about the possibility of the employment of the US presence to serve US strategic
interests, regardless of the interests of the states in the region, for example, if the US
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of Tehran over Shiites in the region. This may constitute confusion in the region and its social
and political situation, which would create a situation like the duplication of religious and
political loyalty to large sections of the people in the region (Interview No 16).
This situation may lead the countries of the region to a new arms race and the US may
or may not employ this status of confusion to control some of the states in the region to sell a
huge deal of weapons with the states of the region, regardless of whether or not they need it
(Barzegar 2010). Furthermore, the arms sales that were announced by Washington for the
Gulf states during the past years, which are discussed in chapter two, are expected to increase
in the future, in an attempt to achieve some kind of military balance between the GCC states
and Iran. The imbalance of power, might be employed by regional and international powers
to build new hubs in the region, as was confirmed by (O'Hanlon 2009) in his research project
(Opportunity 08) prepared by the Institute of Brookings Research, which presented the
recommendations to the American presidential candidates in 2008. One of the project studies
indicates that: the first line of the US Defence in the face of Iran is to strengthen the allies and
the states of the Arab friends as a front of a counterweight to the power of Iran.