Weisburd et al., (2004) observed that police leaders around the nation were interested in and willing to explore CompStat. They examined the widespread diffusion of CompStat across the landscape of American policing and asked why American police departments were adopting the CompStat model. In 1999, they surveyed a sampling of the small departments and 445 of the existing 515 large police departments in the United States to answer that question.25
1. Large and Small Police Department Implementation
Weisburd et al. found that CompStat models had been adopted widely across American police agencies. When asked whether they had implemented a CompStat-like program:
• 11.1 percent of small departments and 29.3 percent of the large
departments answered that their department had implemented a CompStat- like program.26
• 50.3 percent of the small departments and 58.2 percent of the large departments answered that their department had either implemented a CompStat-like program or were planning to do so.
2. Year of CompStat Implementation
Weisburd et al. asked departments when their CompStat program was implemented. As they expected and as the diagram below demonstrates; the large growth of implementation occurred after the New York program had begun to gain wide-scale publicity. A third of large departments had implemented a CompStat-like program within
25
In 1999, the U.S. Bureau of Justice Statics recognized 698 small police departments (50-99 Sworn officers) and 515 large police departments (100 +sworn officers). The response rate for the sample was 85/100 of a random sample of 100 of 698 small police departments (85 %) and 445/515 of all large police departments (86.4%). It is noted that Weisburd et al (2004) is the only available research that delineates in like fashion the adoption of CompStat by police agencies.
10 years after NYPD’s implementation: “This is five years less than the fifteen-year period Arnold Grubler (1991) predicts it takes the quickly diffused technologies to progress to a 90 percent saturation level.”
Figure 12. Year CompStat Implemented (Source: Weisburd et al. (2004))
Significantly, 18 departments of the large agencies sampled reported implementation “before” 1994, the year that NYPD introduced CompStat. It appears that in those cases, departments believed that they had implemented the essential “elements” of CompStat even before New York City’s model had become prominent.
3. Innovation Adoption Curve
Weisburd et al. compared the adoption of CompStat to other social or technological innovations. In the figure below, the researchers depicted the innovation adoption curve for large police agencies.
Figure 13. Innovation Adoption Curve for Large Police Agencies (Source: Weisburd et al., 2004)
Using extrapolated data from the innovation adoption curve and assuming that the adoption of an innovation generally “follows a bell-shaped curve” when plotted as a frequency distribution, they developed the cumulative adoption curve of Figure 14.27
Based on this distribution and allowing saturation to include all police departments in the sample, the researchers estimate a 90 percent saturation level between 2006 and 2007. If the adoption of CompStat-like programs were to follow the growth rates in the data, the researchers concluded that CompStat would rank among the most quickly diffused forms of innovation.28
27
Weisburd et al. relied upon the observed data between 1995 and 1998. They excluded 1999 because of the timing of the survey and 1995 because the number of cases was relatively small and likely to lead to unstable estimates. In developing an estimated value for the standard deviation unit of the normal curve, they compared each year’s frequency between 1995 and 1998 and then took the average estimate gained. After defining the normal frequency distribution, Weisburd et al. converted the estimates to a cumulative
Figure 14. Cumulative Adaptive Curve (Source: Weisburd et al., 2004)
4. Role of the New York City Police Department in Implementation
Weisberd et al. found that while departments that implemented CompStat-like programs have also visited Los Angeles, New Orleans, or Broward County, Florida, all places that have publicized CompStat programs, New York is clearly the site where most police agencies go to learn about this innovation. Moreover, the “profound” influence of New York City’s promotion of CompStat becomes even more apparent when considering the level of familiarity that the surveyed departments claim to have with New York City’s CompStat program.
5. Size of the Department Matters
As Figure 15 illustrates, there is a direct linear relationship between department size and the implementation of CompStat programs. The relationship is strong and statistically significant: (p =<.001) (Weisburd et al, 2004).
Figure 15. Number of Sworn Personnel (Source: Weisburd et al., 2004)
6. CompStat Departments by Region
Weisburd et al. found a statistically significant relationship of p=<.05 between geographic region and implementation of CompStat-like programs (see Figure 16): 40 percent of large departments in the South have implemented CompStat. Conversely, 26 percent of large departments in the Northeast have implemented a CompStat-like program. They suggest that this distribution reflects a more general phenomenon in American policing over the last decade: while innovation, as in the case of CompStat may begin in older police agencies in the East or Central regions of the country, police in the South and West, are on average “more willing or perhaps more able to adapt to those innovations.”
7. Motivation for Adopting CompStat
Weisburd et al. found that the dominant motivations for implementing ComStat are to secure management control over field operations that will reduce serious crime.
8. Conclusions
Weisburd et al. concluded that CompStat had “burst” onto the American policing scene. They suggest that CompStat is being differentially implemented in police agencies and that large police departments are more likely to adopt CompStat-like programs. Weisburd et al. suggest that the adoption of CompStat is “strongly” related to a department’s expressed desire to reduce serious crime and increase management control over field operations. Moreover, the researchers found that agencies that had adopted CompStat programs are much less likely to focus on improving skills and morale of street-level officers. The researchers conclude that this suggests that CompStat may represent a departure from the priorities of “bubble-up” community-policing programs that rely on initiative from street-level officers.