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This section provides an analysis of ERP growth between 2001 and 2011. Note that the 2011 data remain preliminary and are from the March 2012 release of ERP data, which was not benchmarked to 2011 census data.¹⁹

19 The more recent July 2012 release of ERP data was benchmarked to the 2011 census, and the revised population estimates for SEQ were somewhat lower than the estimates reported in this chapter. The total population of SEQ has been revised downwards by about 44 000 persons. Much of the downwards revision of population between the March and July 2012 releases relates to the Gold Coast and Sunshine Coast regions. Note that the 2011 population estimates that were released in July 2012 remain preliminary.

Between 2001 and 2011, the Brisbane region’s average annual ERP growth was 2.2 per cent, lower than the average annual ERP growth of 2.5 per cent in SEQ. By contrast, total ERP growth for Australia during the same period was 1.5 per cent per annum.

Figure 3.5 shows the average annual rate of growth of ERP for SEQ and the Brisbane region between 2001 and 2011. In both SEQ and the Brisbane region, there was a decreasing population growth rate from 2002–03 to 2005–06, followed by a significant upturn in 2006–07 of more than 0.4 percentage points. ERP growth exceeded 2.5 per cent in SEQ and Brisbane in 2007–08 and 2008–09, before falling below 2.0 per cent in 2009–10 and 2010–11.

The population of SEQ consistently increased at a faster rate than that of Brisbane. This faster population growth in SEQ is because the rates of population growth were much higher in the Gold Coast and Sunshine Coast regions, than in Brisbane. The proportion of SEQ’s population living in Brisbane has decreased gradually from 65.6 per cent in the year ended June 2001 to 63.9 per cent in the year ended June 2011.

Figure 3.5 Average annual rate of growth in Estimated Resident Population, Brisbane region and South East Queensland, 2001 to 2011

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0

2010–11 2009–10 2008–09 2007–08 2006–07 2005–06 2004–05 2003–04 2002–03 2001–02

Brisbane SEQ

Average annual growth rate (per cent)

Notes: ERP data for 2011 remains preliminary.

Source: BITRE analysis of ABS Cat. 3218.0 Regional Population Growth 2011 (March 2012 release).

Table 3.4 shows the change in population and average annual growth for Brisbane and SEQ by sector and subregion. SEQ’s population grew by 693 977 persons or 27.9 per cent over this period, which represents an average annual increase of 2.5 per cent. The Brisbane region accounted for 57.7 per cent of this growth.

Between 2001 and 2011, the average annual growth rate of population in Brisbane was 2.2 per cent, while Gold Coast experienced the highest average annual growth rate (3.3 per cent), followed by Sunshine Coast (3.1 per cent).

The Outer sector contributed 54.3 per cent of the Brisbane region’s growth, while the Middle sector contributed 38.3 per cent. The Inner sector experienced the highest growth rate (3.7 per cent per annum) and the Middle sector experienced the lowest rate of growth (1.7 per cent). Within the Middle sector, the population of the Middle North subregion grew less rapidly (averaging 1.3 per cent per annum) than the other Middle subregions. The population of the Outer West and Outer North subregions grew faster (3.2 and 3.1 per cent per annum, respectively) than the other Outer subregions.

Table 3.4 Population growth in the Brisbane and South East Queensland, 2001 to 2011

Region 2001 ERP 2011 ERP Change

(2001–2011) Average

Middle 828 347 981 594 153 247 1.7 38.3 22.1

Middle East 148 267 179 997 31 730 2.0 7.9 4.6

Middle North 289 022 330 078 41 056 1.3 10.3 5.9

Middle South 208 997 252 127 43 130 1.9 10.8 6.2

Middle West 182 061 219 392 37 331 1.9 9.3 5.4

Outer 732 561 950 005 217 444 2.6 54.3 31.3

Outer Eastern 117 252 144 936 27 684 2.1 6.9 4.0

Outer Northern 286 532 389 684 103 152 3.1 25.8 14.9

Outer Southern 202 146 241 233 39 087 1.8 9.8 5.6

Outer Western 126 631 174 152 47 521 3.2 11.9 6.8

Brisbane Total 1 629 210 2 029 397 400 187 2.2 100.0 57.7

Gold Coast 432 466 596 016 163 551 3.3 23.6

Sunshine Coast 247 167 335 273 88 106 3.1 12.7

West Moreton 65 763 84 410 18 646 2.5 2.7

Toowoomba 109 449 132 936 23 487 2.0 3.4

SEQ Total 2 484 055 3 178 032 693 977 2.5 100.0

Note: 2011 population estimates are preliminary.

Source: BITRE analysis of ABS Cat. 3218.0 Regional Population Growth 2011 (March 2012 release).

The pattern of growth for SEQ differed between the pre-2006 and post-2006 periods, as can be seen in Figure 3.6. SEQ’s growth was more concentrated in the Brisbane region in the later period. Growth in the Outer sector was particularly strong in the later period, whilst the Inner sector’s contribution to growth was much smaller between 2006 and 2011 (2.7 per cent). The proportion of growth in the Gold Coast and Sunshine Coast was lower in the 2006–11 period, but they together still contributed over one-third of SEQ’s population growth.

Figure 3.7 examines the population living at various distances from the Brisbane CBD and how that has changed between 2001 and 2011. The proportion of Brisbane’s population living between 5 and 15 kilometres from the CBD has declined from 36.5 per cent in 2001 to 33.6 per cent in 2011. However, there has been an increase in the proportion of Brisbane’s population living 15 to 45 kilometres from the CBD, increasing from 50.0 per cent in 2001 to 52.7 per cent in 2011. During the same period, the proportion of the population living within 5 kilometres of the CBD also increased slightly, from 12.0 per cent in 2001 to 12.3 per cent in 2011.

Figure 3.6 Proportion of population growth by region and sector, South East

Inner Middle Outer Gold Coast Sunshine Coast Toowoomba West Moreton 4.3

Proportion of population growth (per cent)

Note: 2011 population estimates are preliminary.

Source: BITRE analysis of ABS Cat. 3218.0 Regional Population Growth 2011 (March 2012 release).

Figure 3.7 Brisbane population at various distances from the Brisbane Central Business District, 2001, 2006 and 2011

0

Straight line distance from General Post Office (km)

2001 2006 2011

Note: 2011 population estimates are preliminary.

Source: BITRE analysis of ABS Cat. 3218.0 Regional Population Growth 2011 (March 2012 release).

Figure 3.8 is an alternative presentation of the information in Figure 3.7, which shows the distance bands in which Brisbane’s population growth was concentrated between 2001 and 2011. Population growth largely occurred between 15 and 20 kilometres from the CBD (16 per cent) and between 20 and 25 kilometres from the CBD (17 per cent). The area within 5 kilometres of the General Post Office (GPO) accounted for 13 per cent of Brisbane’s population increase. There was also noticeable population growth occurring at a distance of 30 to 40 kilometres from Brisbane’s CBD (13 per cent).

Figure 3.8 Comparison of proportion of population change at various distances from Central Business District, Brisbane, 2001 to 2011

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18

>50 40–50 30–40

25–30 20–25

15–20 10–15

5–10

<5

Proportion of population growth (per cent)

Straight line distance from General Post Office (km) Note: 2011 population estimates are preliminary.

Source: BITRE analysis of ABS Cat. 3218.0 Regional Population Growth 2011 (March 2012 release).

Map 3.3 illustrates the change in population of all SEQ SLAs between 2001 and 2011. The map reveals that the majority of the SLAs that have recorded the greatest increase in population are located in the Outer sector and in the Gold and Sunshine Coast regions. Some isolated areas of population decline are evident in Brisbane’s middle suburbs, but no areas of population decline are evident outside the Brisbane region.

Map 3.3 Change in Estimated Resident Population by Statistical Local Area, South East Queensland, 2001 to 2011

Note: 2011 population estimates are preliminary.

Source: BITRE analysis of ABS Cat. 3218.0 Regional Population Growth 2011.

Map 3.4 and its inset use ABS census data for CCDs to provide a more detailed representation of population change for SEQ. It focuses on the 2001 to 2006 subperiod. Map 3.4 presents a broadly similar picture to Map 3.3. However, while population growth dominates Map 3.4, the more detailed spatial unit of CCDs reveals that small population losses were experienced in many areas of SEQ between 2001 and 2006, including the central areas of Ipswich and Toowoomba and a coastal strip extending south of Surfers Paradise to the New South Wales border.

When the growth of population by CCD is examined against the Urban Footprint boundary as shown in Map 3.4, it becomes apparent that some of this growth occurred outside the Urban Footprint. For example, some population growth extended to the west of the Urban Footprint boundary in the Gold Coast region, and there was also notable population growth outside the boundary in the Outer South and Middle West subregions and the Sunshine Coast region.

Map 3.4 Dot density change map of population change including Urban Footprint, South East Queensland, 2001 to 2006

a) Main map

b) Inset map

Notes: Urban Footprint boundary for 2009 shown in blue inside SEQ. Urban footprint based on data provided by the Depar tment of State Development, Infrastructure and Planning. The Depar tment of State Development, Infrastructure and Planning gives no warranty in relation to the data (including accuracy, reliability, completeness or suitability) and accepts no liability (including without limitation, liability in negligence) for any loss, damage or costs (including consequential damage) relating to any use of the data.

Source: BITRE analysis of ABS 2001 and 2006 Census of Population and Housing data for CCDs and 2009 Urban Footprint boundary as supplied by the Department of State Development, Infrastructure and Planning.

Focusing again on the ten-year period ending June 2011, Table 3.5 identifies the SLAs within SEQ which experienced the largest (positive or negative) change in population. The SLAs which grew the most were primarily in the Outer sector, such as Ipswich East (+29 681), Griffin-Mango Hill (+17 035) and Ipswich Central (+14 478). Ipswich East includes the new master-planned suburb of Springfield Lakes which grew from zero population in 2001 to reach a population of 10 600 in June 2011 (ABS 2012a). The Gold Coast and Sunshine Coast regions also saw significant population increases, particularly the SLAs of Kingsholme-Upper Coomera (+18 060) and Maroochy–Buderim (+15 858). The Brisbane City Remainder SLA was the highest contributor from the Inner sector (3332 persons), whilst Parkinson-Drewvale (8784 persons) and Wakerley (6199 persons) were the largest contributors from the Middle sector.

The eight SLAs that showed a decline were all located in the Middle sector The three SLAs with the highest population loss were Stafford Heights (–205 persons), Middle Park (–74 persons) and Jindalee (–64 persons) (Table 3.5).

Table 3.5 Statistical Local Areas with the largest change in population in South East Queensland, 2001 to 2011

SLA name Region/sector/

subregion 2001 ERP 2011 ERP Resident change

(number) Largest increases

Ipswich—East Outer West 40 239 69 920 29 681

Kingsholme-Upper Coomera Gold Coast 7 650 25 710 18 060

Griffin-Mango Hill Outer North 3 103 20 138 17 035

Maroochy—Buderim Sunshine Coast 33 178 49 036 15 858

Ipswich—Central Outer West 66 949 81 427 14 478

Beaudesert—Part A Outer South 34 639 47 847 13 208

Central Pine West Outer North 12 152 24 000 11 848

Maroochy—Coastal North Sunshine Coast 18 429 29 918 11 489

Pacific Pines-Gaven Gold Coast 5 227 15 954 10 727

Burpengary-Narangba Outer North 17 895 28 256 10 361

Ormeau-Yatala Gold Coast 6 679 16 870 10 191

Caloundra—Caloundra South Sunshine Coast 15 778 25 570 9 792

Dakabin-Kallangur-Murrumba Downs Outer North 21 417 30 340 8 923

Parkinson-Drewvale Middle South 6 283 15 067 8 784

Robina Gold Coast 14 209 22 673 8 464

Caloundra—Caloundra North Sunshine Coast 18 398 26 421 8 023

Varsity Lakes Gold Coast 7 105 15 091 7 986

Mudgeeraba-Reedy Creek Gold Coast 18 373 26 034 7 661

Pimpama-Coomera Gold Coast 3 598 11 251 7 653

Morayfield Outer North 17 236 24 616 7 380

Southport Gold Coast 23 040 30 364 7 324

Caboolture—Central Outer North 16 615 23 887 7 272

Redland Bay Outer East 7 093 14 055 6 962

(continued)

Table 3.5 Statistical Local Areas with the largest change in population in South East Queensland, 2001 to 2011(continued)

SLA name Region/sector/

subregion 2001 ERP 2011 ERP Resident change

(number)

Oxenford—Maudsland Gold Coast 8 536 15 435 6 899

Caloundra—Rail Corridor Sunshine Coast 16 589 23 473 6 884

Maroochy—Balance Sunshine Coast 22 574 29 448 6 874

Caloundra—Kawana Sunshine Coast 17 952 24 772 6 820

Nerang Gold Coast 21 374 28 101 6 727

Toowoomba—South-East Toowoomba 23 194 29 762 6 568

Wakerley Middle East 1 538 7 737 6 199

Largest decreases

Stafford Heights Middle North 7 165 6 960 –205

Middle Park Middle West 4 340 4 266 –74

Jindalee Middle West 5 298 5 233 –65

Notes: 2011 population estimates are preliminary.

Population increase of less than 6 000 people or decrease of less than 65 people have been excluded from the population change rankings.

Source: BITRE analysis of ABS Cat. 3218.0 Regional Population Growth 2011.

An alternative way to view population growth is to examine the growth as a percentage of the existing resident population, which can paint a slightly different picture. Table 3.6 sets out the 11 highest growth SLAs from 2001 to 2011. The highest average annual growth was in Griffin-Mango Hill (20.6 per cent), Wakerley (17.5 per cent) and Pallara-Heathwood-Larapinta (16.0 per cent). The City Inner SLA grew at an average annual rate of 14.0 per cent.

Table 3.6 Highest population growth Statistical Local Areas, South East Queensland, 2001 to 2011

SLA name Region/sector/subregion Average annual growth rate (per cent)

Griffin-Mango Hill Outer North 20.6

Wakerley Middle East 17.5

Pallara-Heathwood-Larapinta Middle South 16.0

City Inner Inner 14.0

Kingsholme-Upper Coomera Gold Coast 12.9

Moggill Middle West 12.1

Pimpama-Coomera Gold Coast 12.1

Pacific Pines-Gaven Gold Coast 11.8

City Remainder Inner 10.9

Ormeau-Yatala Gold Coast 9.7

Parkinson-Drewvale Middle South 9.1

Notes: 2011 population estimates are preliminary. Average annual growth rates of less than 9.0 per cent have been excluded from the highest growth rankings.

Source: BITRE analysis of ABS Cat. 3218.0 Regional Population Growth 2011 (March 2012 release).

To illustrate the spatial patterns in population growth across the SEQ region, Map 3.5 presents the average annual growth rates from 2001 to 2011. Strong growth is evident across the region, particularly close to the city centre and in the Gold Coast region.

Map 3.5 Average annual population growth by Statistical Local Area, South East Queensland, 2001 to 2011

Note: 2011 population estimates are preliminary.

Source: BITRE analysis of ABS Cat. 3218.0 Regional Population Growth 2011.

In document Lo propio y lo ajeno: el sujeto fragmentado en la trilogía de la espera, de Antonio Di Benedetto (página 92-101)