1.1 Background
This report has been prepared by the PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency to contribute to the discussion on the future of Europe’s consumption and production of food, in the global context of a rapidly rising demand. This increasing global demand, notably for meat, dairy and fish, creates a number of challenges (IAASTD 2009; PBL 2009, 2010). On the global level, the challenge is to improve food availability and reduce malnutrition, while strongly reducing biodiversity loss and emissions of greenhouse gases and nitrogen. The report focuses mainly on the EU consumption and production of food, placed in the context of this global challenge. For the EU food system, the emphasis in this report is on the consumption and production of meat, dairy, eggs and fish. What are the impacts of the present levels of consumption on the environment? What are the options for reducing these impacts through changes in consumption or improvements in production methods? These questions are frequently asked in society and about which there is much debate. For several reasons, this report concentrates on the consumption and production of animal products (meat, dairy, eggs and fish). For fish, the depletion of stocks and impacts on marine biodiversity are the main issues (Alder et al. 2007; Watson & Pauly 2001). For livestock production, there are concerns about animal welfare, greenhouse gas emissions, loss of biodiversity, and resource use due to the inefficient conversion of plant protein into animal protein. The FAO report Livestock’s Long Shadow was the first to put these concerns prominently on the agenda (FAO 2006a). Given the increase in global
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prosperity, for many regions, a shift in consumption is expected, from vegetable products towards meat, dairy and fish (FAO 2006b; IAASTD 2009; Keyzer 2005; Thornton 2010).
From the perspective of public health, many Europeans consume too many calories and too much in saturated fats, the latter primarily of animals origin. According to dietary recommendations, many people should consume more fish, fruit and vegetables. As meat, dairy, eggs and fish are all important sources of protein, and because they are partly interchangeable or may be replaced by vegetable protein sources, the problem can be framed as the ‘protein puzzle’. The future supply of proteins is a crucial factor in the global food system (Aiking 2011).
Biodiversity loss, greenhouse gas emissions, and the use and emissions of nitrogen, are the main environmental issues discussed in this report. Livestock and fisheries are not the only significant pressures regarding these issues. Rockstrom et al. (2009) argue that for these issues, the ‘planetary boundaries have already been overstepped’. Livestock production is one of the main causes of emissions of various forms of reactive nitrogen (Galloway et al. 2010). Nitrogen and proteins are strongly connected, as nitrogen is one of the key components of amino-acids, the building blocks of proteins. In addition to these three environmental aspects, attention also is being paid to animal welfare, as this is a concern of many Europeans. Regarding the production and consumption of fish, the report mainly addresses the issues of impacts on marine biodiversity and the depletion of fish stocks.
This report presents a current and concise overview of facts and figures on present EU consumption, production and effects, as we felt that such an overview, to date, had been unavailable. It may add to a more informed discussion. With respect to human consumption, especially, many new calculations were made. This also applies to other aspects, such as feed use and environmental effects, and, in particular, to those related to the various livestock sectors. Many of the presented data, therefore, carry some uncertainty and we are open to suggestions for improved data or methods.
In order to gain insight into the question of how to reduce impacts by changing either consumption or production methods, a number of potential options were evaluated, using a combination of global agro-economic and environmental models. Calculations mainly concerned options at EU level. By making use of models, the many relationships and feedbacks in the European and global food systems could be taken into account. To the best of our knowledge, this study is one of the first that uses this approach to assess the effects of various options. It must be noted that results should be viewed as indications, not as predictions. This is especially the case, since the models have taken feedbacks in consumption and production into account, but possibly did not include policy responses. The report concludes with a first reflection on how changes in the food system could be initiated, and by which actors.
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1.2 Structure of the report
Given the fact that the European food system is embedded in the global food system, chapter 2 starts with the global context. It describes the present consumption of meat, dairy and fish, worldwide, and discusses the questions around the effects from the production of these food products on the environment. Which changes are to be expected over the next 20 to 40 years? And which actors have a role in the global food chain?
The chapters 3 to 7 mainly focus on the situation in the EU. We look at the present consumption of meat, dairy and fish, in terms of quantity, as well as proteins and fats, and discuss possible consequential effects on human health. Chapter 3 addresses the question of how consumption patterns have evolved over the last 45 years. The structure of EU livestock production and its effects on the environment are subjects of chapters 4 and 5. Chapter 4 also provides a brief historical view of EU livestock and feed productions. Fisheries and aquaculture are discussed in chapter 6. Followed by a presentation and discussion of the environmental effects per unit of produce in chapter 7, as chapters 5 and 6 present the effects in a broader view, per livestock and fishery sector.
The results from the quantitative assessment of the various options for changing consumption and agricultural productions are presented in chapter 8. Finally, chapter 9 briefly discusses the broad strategies that may reduce impacts on the environment and on animal welfare, and the possible roles of the different actors (policymakers, consumers, farmers, fishermen, food industry and retailers).