3. Biblioteca itinerante Parque al Barrio
3.2. Viviendo la itinerancia como praxis social
3.2.3. Regalando Palabras
Analyses of accident registrations from Øresund are valuable information with regard to calibration of frequency models and estimation of input parameters for both fre- quency and consequence models.
Accident registrations have been obtained from The Danish Maritime Authority and The Swedish Maritime Administration covering both Danish and Swedish registra- tions. The Danish registrations cover the period 1997-2005, whereas the Swedish registrations cover the period from 1988-2005.
The accident registrations are categorized into three main categories: • Ship-ship collisions (in the following referred to as collisions) • Groundings
• Ship-obstacle collisions
Note, that the Danish registrations do not contain the category ship-obstacle colli- sions. Furthermore, the Swedish registrations for ship-obstacle collisions are very sparse after 2002. The reason for this is unknown.
In the following the accident registrations along with several statistical analyses are presented.
6.1
Location
Figure 6-1 shows a map of Øresund with the all accident registrations plotted on it. However, 26 of the received registrations (primarily Danish) are not plotted on the map, because no coordinates were given for these accidents. In total 329 different accident registrations were received and 303 of these are plotted in Figure 6-1.
Groundings Ship-ship collisions Ship-obstacle collisions
Boxes with other colours are related to the map and are not essential in this plot.1 Figure 6-1 Accident registrations in the Øresund area.
In the subsequent statistical analyses of the accident registrations only accident reg- istrations which are located within the relevant area for the present risk analysis are included. Thus, registrations south of a line connecting Stevns and Falsterbo or north of a line connecting Gilleleje and Kullen are omitted. This excludes 55 of the 303 registrations, leaving 248 registrations. Furthermore, registrations which are catego- rized either as ‘Harbour area’ or ‘At quay’ are also omitted. This excludes 77 regis- trations, leaving 171 registrations.
Further, the Swedish registrations are from the period 1988 to 2005, while the Dan- ish registrations are from the period 1997 to 2005, i.e. only in the period 1997-2005 is the data material complete. Thus all registrations before 1997 have been left out (57 registrations) which results in a data set of 114 registrations. Finally, for the statistical analyses registrations without coordinates (and fulfilling the above men- tioned criteria) have also been included (25 registrations), thus giving a total of 139 registrations for the analyses.
These 139 relevant accident registrations have been analysed and the 114 registra- tions with coordinates are plotted on charts. In the following, detailed maps of each of the focus areas in Øresund are given with the relevant accident registrations shown.
Ship-ship collision (2000-2005) Ship-ship collision (1997-1999) Grounding (2000-2005) Grounding (1997-1999)
Ship-obstacle collision (2000-2005) Ship-obstacle collision (1997-1999) Miscellaneous (2000-2005) Miscellaneous (1997-1999)
Ship-ship collision (2000-2005) Ship-ship collision (1997-1999) Grounding (2000-2005) Grounding (1997-1999)
Ship-obstacle collision (2000-2005) Ship-obstacle collision (1997-1999) Miscellaneous (2000-2005) Miscellaneous (1997-1999)
Ship-ship collision (2000-2005) Ship-ship collision (1997-1999) Grounding (2000-2005) Grounding (1997-1999)
Ship-obstacle collision (2000-2005) Ship-obstacle collision (1997-1999) Miscellaneous (2000-2005) Miscellaneous (1997-1999)
Ship-ship collision (2000-2005) Ship-ship collision (1997-1999) Grounding (2000-2005) Grounding (1997-1999)
Ship-obstacle collision (2000-2005) Ship-obstacle collision (1997-1999) Miscellaneous (2000-2005) Miscellaneous (1997-1999)
Ship-ship collision (2000-2005) Ship-ship collision (1997-1999) Grounding (2000-2005) Grounding (1997-1999)
The following statistical calculations of the accident registration data are presented in the subsequent sections:
• Frequency • Accident causes • Use of pilot • Light conditions • Size of ship (GT) • Consequence
6.2
Frequency
On basis of the accident registrations the frequency of each type of accident can be calculated. The different types are:
• Grounding
• Ship-ship collision (referred to as collision) • Ship-obstacle collision
• Miscellaneous (including e.g. capsize and pollution)
The frequencies based on the set of 139 accident registrations are shown in Table 6-1.
Accident type No. of
registrations No. of years Frequency [per year] Grounding 92 9 10.2 Collision 28 9 3.1 Ship-obstacle collision 12 9 1.3 Miscellaneous 7 9 0.8 All 139 9 16.7
Table 6-1 Frequency of accidents in period 1997-2005 in the relevant area. To investigate whether construction of the Øresund Bridge has had any impact on the number of accidents the frequency is also calculated for the time period 2000- 2005, corresponding to after construction of the bridge. For this time period there are 71 accident registrations. The calculated frequencies for these 71 registrations are shown in Table 6-2.
Accident type No. of registrations No. of years Frequency [per year] Change in frequency Grounding 53 6 8.8 -13.6% Collision 11 6 1.8 -41.1% Ship-obstacle collision* 1 6 0.2 -87.5% Miscellaneous 6 6 1.0 28.6% All accidents 71 6 12.2 -23.4%
* The Swedish registrations for ship-obstacle collisions are very sparse after 2002. The reason for this is unknown.
Table 6-2 Frequency of accidents after construction of the Øresund Bridge (2000-2005).
Figure 6-7 shows a plot of the accident frequency for the entire period (1997-2005) and for the period after construction of the bridge.
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18
Grounding Collision Ship-obstacle collision
Miscellaneous All accidents Accident type Fr equen cy [per y e a r] 1997-2005 2000-2005 (after Øresundsbro) Figure 6-7 Frequency of accident for each accident type.
From Table 6-2 and Figure 6-7 it is seen that the accident frequency after construc- tion of the Øresund Bridge appear to be lower for all accident types except ‘Miscella- neous’. Thus the frequencies related to after construction of the Øresund Bridge will be used as reference in the present risk analysis.
6.3
Causes
Based on the data set of 139 accident registrations the cause of the accidents can be examined. In the 139 registration 17 different primary causes are listed. These causes can be seen in Table 6-3 along with the percentage of accident registrations for each cause and for each accident type.
Cause Grounding Collision Ship- obstacle collision Miscel- laneous All acci- dents Human factor 21.7% 17.9% 75.0% 0.0% 24.5% Communication 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.7% Alcohol 2.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.4% Water conditions 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.7%
Fatigue (of personnel) 6.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.3% Failure of propulsion machinery 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.7% Failure of navigational instrument 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.7% Failure of steering machinery 2.2% 3.6% 8.3% 14.3% 3.6% Navigational equipment not used 2.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.4%
Poor planning 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.7%
Lack of look-out 1.1% 7.1% 0.0% 0.0% 2.2%
Navigational failure 3.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.2% Erroneous handling of other ship 0.0% 3.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.7% Operational failure of other ship 0.0% 10.7% 8.3% 28.6% 4.3% Lack of or too late duty to give way 0.0% 3.6% 0.0% 14.3% 1.4% Collision with floating object 0.0% 0.0% 8.3% 0.0% 0.7%
Unknown 55.4% 53.6% 0.0% 42.9% 49.6%
100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Table 6-3 Cause of accidents for each accident type.
From Table 6-3 it is seen that for approximately half of the registrations the cause of the accident is unknown. Apart from this, the most domination cause of an accident is conditions related to the human factor.
6.4
Use of pilot
For each accident registration it is stated whether or not a pilot was onboard (if known) at the time of the accident. It should be noted, that with regard to the Dan- ish registrations the use of pilot was prior to 2005-01-01 only registered if it was judged to be relevant for the unravelling of the accident.
For 60 of the registrations this information is not given or marked as unknown, thus approximately 60% of the registrations have information concerning the use of pilot. In Table 6-4 and Figure 6-8 the use of pilot for each accident type is presented.
Use of pilot
Grounding Collision Ship-obstacle
collision
Miscellaneous All accidents
No. % No. % No. % No. % No. %
Yes 4 4.3% 1 3.6% 1 8.3% 0 0.0% 6 4.3%
No 43 46.7% 18 64.3% 9 75.0% 3 42.9% 73 52.5% Unknown 45 48.9% 9 32.1% 2 16.7% 4 57.1% 60 43.2% Total 92 100.0% 28 100.0% 12 100.0% 7 100.0% 139 100.0% Table 6-4 The use of pilot for each accident type.
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% Yes No Unknown Pilot onboard Pe rc e n ta ge of acci d e n ts
Grounding Collision Ship-obstacle collision Miscellaneous All accidents
Figure 6-8 Percentage of accidents with pilot onboard for each accident type.
From Table 6-4 and Figure 6-8 it is seen that in approximately half of the registra- tions no pilot was onboard the ship at the time of the accident (for collisions this means that no pilot was onboard either of the ships) and in 40% of the registrations the use of pilot is not known. Thus, a pilot was onboard in 4% of all of the relevant registrations, corresponding to 7% of the registrations where the use of pilot is known.
6.5
Light conditions
In the accident registrations the light condition at the time of the accident can be noted. In Table 6-5 and Figure 6-9 this information is presented for the 139 accident registrations.
Grounding Collision Ship-obstacle
collision
Miscellaneous All accidents
Light condition
No. % No. % No. % No. % No. %
Light 20 21.7% 7 25.0% 6 50.0% 3 42.9% 36 25.9% Dark 22 23.9% 9 32.1% 5 41.7% 1 14.3% 37 26.6%
Dawn 2 2.2% 2 7.1% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 4 2.9%
Unknown 48 52.2% 10 35.7% 1 8.3% 3 42.9% 62 44.6% Total 92 100.0% 28 100.0% 12 100.0% 7 100.0% 139 100.0% Table 6-5 Light condition for each accident type.
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
Light Dark Dawn Unknown
Pa rt o f a cc id e nt s
Grounding Collision Ship-obstacle collision Miscellaneous All accidents
Figure 6-9 Percentage of accidents distributed on the different light condi- tions.
From Table 6-5 and Figure 6-9 it is seen that for 40% of the registrations the light condition is not known. For the remaining 60% it is further seen, that for each acci- dent type there are approximately the same share of accidents with light as with dark light condition.
6.6
Size of ship (GT)
In the accident registrations the size (GT) of the ship involved in the accident is reg- istered. For the 139 registrations the GT has been divided into 5 classes (similarly to ref. [4]) and the results are shown in Table 6-6 and Figure 6-10.
Grounding Collision Ship-obstacle collision
Miscellane- ous
All accidents GT
No. % No. % No. % No. % No. % < 500 13 14.1% 9 32.1% 5 41.7% 3 42.9% 30 21.6% 500 – 3000 36 39.1% 12 42.9% 2 16.7% 1 14.3% 51 36.7% 3000 – 10000 21 22.8% 4 14.3% 2 16.7% 0 0.0% 27 19.4% 10000 – 20000 3 3.3% 2 7.1% 0 0.0% 1 14.3% 6 4.3% > 20000 5 5.4% 0 0.0% 2 16.7% 0 0.0% 7 5.0% Unknown 14 15.2% 1 3.6% 1 8.3% 2 28.6% 18 12.9% Total 92 100% 28 100% 12 100% 7 100% 139 100% Table 6-6 GT class for each accident type.
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% < 500 500 - 3000 3000 - 10000 10000 - 20000 > 20000 Unknown GT Part of acci d e n ts
Grounding Collision Ship-obstacle collision Miscellaneous All accidents
Figure 6-10 Percentage of accidents in each GT class for each accident type.
6.7
Consequences
In the Swedish accident registrations the consequences of the accident is registered, for the Danish registrations this information is not given. Based on the Swedish reg- istrations the following consequences have been analysed:
• Personal injury: • Number of injured • Number of fatalities • Number of lost persons
• Whether or not there was a hull damage • Whether or not there was a leakage.
Personal injury
Personal injury has been registered for 57 accidents in the considered time period (1997-2005), but only for two accidents has there been any injuries:
• 5 fatalities at a ship-ship collision on March 28, 2000 at the northern exit of Øresund (close to Kullen).
• 1 injured at a ship-obstacle collision on September 26, 2000 at Höllviken (near Falsterbo).
Hull damage and leakage
For 54 accident registrations hull damage and leakage was registered. The analyses of hull damage and leakage are given in Table 6-7, Table 6-8, Figure 6-11 and Figure 6-12.
Grounding Collision Ship-obstacle collision
Miscellaneous All accidents
Hull damage
No. % No. % No. % No. % No. % Yes 19 20.7% 4 14.3% 6 50.0% 0 0.0% 29 20.9% No 18 19.6% 2 7.1% 5 41.7% 0 0.0% 25 18.0% Unknown 55 59.8% 22 78.6% 1 8.3% 7 100.0% 85 61.2% Total 92 100% 28 100% 12 100% 7 100% 139 100% Table 6-7 Hull damage for each accident type.
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Yes No Unknown Hull damage % o f a cci d e nt s
All accidents Groundings Collision Ship-obstacle Miscellaneous Figure 6-11 Percentage of accidents with hull damage.
When only considering accidents where hull damage has been registered, it can be seen for both groundings and ship-obstacle collisions that there is hull damage in approximately half of the accidents. For collisions there is only registered whether or not there was a hull damage in 6 accidents and in 4 of these a hull damage was reg- istered.
Grounding Collision Ship-obstacle collision
Miscellaneous All accidents
Leakage
No. % No. % No. % No. % No. %
Yes 4 4.3% 0 0.0% 1 8.3% 0 0.0% 5 3.6%
No 33 35.9% 6 21.4% 10 83.3% 0 0.0% 49 35.3% Unknown 55 59.8% 22 78.6% 1 8.3% 7 100.0% 85 61.2% Total 92 100% 28 100% 12 100% 7 100% 139 100% Table 6-8 Leakage for each accident type.
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Yes No Unknown Leakage % o f a cci d e nt s
All accidents Grounding Collision Ship-obstacle Miscellaneous Figure 6-12 Percentage of accidents with leakage.
Table 6-8 shows that there has only been registered a leakage in 5 accidents (out of the 57 where leakage is registered). Four of these accidents are groundings and the last is a ship obstacle collision.
In ref. [1] oil spill in Øresund are reported for the period 1967-1996. The total amount of oil spilled was 2 495 400 tons. The frequency of major oil spills was 0.83 per year with an average of 83 180 tons spilled per year, i.e., the average amount of oil spill per accident was 99 816 tons.