Climate change refers to the variation in global, regional, continental or national climate patterns (Thomas et al., 2000). The change is attributed largely to increased levels of atmospheric GHG emissions (CO2, CO, CH4, NOx), mostly produced by the use of fossil fuels. This is particularly the result of burning coal for power generation. The burning of coal causes a medium to long term change in weather patterns or average temperatures. The global change is a gradual increase in the overall temperature of the earth's atmosphere (Tanaka, 2011). The increase is generally attributed to the GHG emission effect caused by increased levels of emission of chlorofluorocarbons and other pollutants. The broad consequences and effects of climate change include, inter alia, drought, floods, global warming and other natural disasters (World Bank Group, 2012).
The total African CO2 emissions in the electricity sector are dominated by a few main emitting countries, with South Africa, Egypt, Libya and Algeria representing over 80% of the total in 2008 (Pegels, 2010). It is anticipated that there could since have been some changes in the 80% due to development and expansion of energy related infrastructure in other African countries to meet the ever-growing demand for electricity. However, the overall emissions from the electricity sector in Africa remain small compared to other continents (Witi and Stevens, 2014). It mainly representing approximately 3.4% of total global emissions from electricity generation (Tanaka, 2011).
In 2010, the South African CO2 emission was at just over 200 Mt (Eskom, 2012). South Africa was ranked seventh in the top ten countries producing coal across the world in 2013 (Birol, 2014a). It produced 251 million tonnes of coal in 2013 (Clerici, 2013; International Energy Agency, 2014). The energy sector is the main contributor of GHG emissions in South Africa. According to Dudley (2016) and Eskom (2016) approximately 93% of South African electricity was generated from coal in 2015. However, in 2010 South Africa was reported to have generated 94% of electricity from coal, followed by Poland with 93% (Figure 1.4). The slight decrease from 94% in 2010 to 93% in 2015 could be associated with the renewable energy sources from the REIPPPP, which approximately 1263 MW has been commissioned in 2015 (DOE,
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2015). Nevertheless, the coal contribution is likely to increase due to 9000 MW coal- fired power stations (Medupi and Kusile) that are yet to be commissioned.
Coal production seems to be increasing every year; from 2011 to 2013 the production of coal increased in South Africa (Chapter 2, section 2.2.1). Consequently, the energy sector is the largest contributor of CO2 emission in South Africa, with an average of 89.2% between 2000 and 2010. The livestock and waste sector contributed approximately 54.1% and 37.2% of the CH4 and biomass burning contributed more than 80% of the N2O in that period (Witi and Stevens, 2014).
Figure 1.4: Coal used for electricity generation per country (Source: Jain, 2010)
It is concluded (from the previous paragraph) that the main challenge concerning GHG emission production is the performance of the electricity generation sector. Hence, with the binding COP agreements in Paris in 2015, a rapid and urgent transformation in electricity generation technologies is needed in South Africa. The main product of emissions in South Africa is CO2 and the primary source is the electricity sector, which accounted for 55.1% of CO2 equivalent between 2000 and 2010 (Witi and Stevens, 2014). In 2012, the total CO2 emission from electricity generation grew to 231 Mt (Figure 1.5). However, the CO2 remained constant from 2008 to 2012 with little increase. Overall, CO2 is the main GHG emission, which has severe implications in the medium to long term, including its contribution to global warming. There is, therefore, a need for South Africa to scale up the generation of electricity from
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 El ec tr ic ity g en erat ed fro m co al ( % ) Countries
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environmentally friendly and constantly available natural energy resources, such as solar power.
Figure 1.5: The CO2 emission from electricity generation for a period of 2003-2012 (Source: Eskom, 2007; Eskom, 2012)
The GHG emission factors for electricity have remained relatively constant in South Africa between 2011 and 2017, it has been between 0.30 to 0.37 kg CO2/MWh (Eskom, 2017). However, the highest was in 2014, which was 0.37 carbon emission kg/MWh (Figure 1.6).
The process of generating electricity in South Africa is GHG inefficient because of the high reliance on coal powered plants. Thus, the GHG emissions resulting from electricity generation in South Africa are generally higher than for other countries in electricity generation. 0 50 100 150 200 250 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 CO 2 emis si o n s (Mt ) Years
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Figure 1.6: South African electricity grid connected kg CO2/kWh (Source: Eskom, 2010; Eskom, 2017)
It is anticipated that kg CO2/GWh may rise in South Africa due to the two coal-fired power stations that are yet to be commissioned. The 9000 MW two coal-fired power stations are likely to add emissions despite the renewable energy technologies that have come online, which a total of 6300 MW has been registered thus far. However, it also depends on the coal characteristics and power station design parameters, which will be more efficient and reduce emissions during operation. The extent to which this will affect emission is not yet known. The country has committed to reduce emissions at the COP21, there is a political will and interest to move towards nuclear as a measure to reduce emissions and comply with the commitment made in COP21.
South Africa has the highest tCO2 per capita in Africa. In 2013 it was at 7.91 tCO2/capita, followed by Libya with 6.97 tCO2/capita, other countries such as Botwana, Democratic Republic of Congo, Kenya have less than 1 tCO2/capita (Birol, 2015). The leading developing or newly industrialized countries, which are Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (BRICS), which are countries that are distinguished by their fast-growing economies and significant influence on regional affairs, South Africa is the second highest with Russia being the highest with 10.79 tCO2/capita, Brazil has the lowest tCO2/capita of 2.26 in the BRICS countries (Birol, 2015).
0.2 0.25 0.3 0.35 0.4 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 C a rb o n e m is s io n (K g /M Wh ) Years
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