Relación señal a ruido de los datos experimentales

TMG recognises the market, credit, currency and interest rate risk involved in regular business operations. The trends in the price of paper can also have a substantial effect on the business result. These risks have a slight impact on the financial position of TMG, therefore internally a high level sensitivity analysis is performed.

The Executive Board has overall responsibility for the establishment and oversight of TMG’s Risk control framework. The Executive Board makes an annual assessment of the strategic risks at both the central and decentralised level and evaluates the developments and monitoring of the strategic risks quarterly.

TMG’s risk management policies are established to identify and analyse the risks faced by TMG, to set appropriate risk limits and controls, and to monitor risks and adherence to limits. Risk management policies and systems are reviewed regularly to reflect changes in market conditions and TMG’s activities. TMG, through its training and management standards and procedures, aims to develop a disciplined and constructive control environment in which all employees understand their roles and obligations.

Group Internal Audit undertakes both regular and ad hoc reviews of risk management controls and procedures, the results of which are reported to the Executive Board and Supervisory Board.

Market risk

Market risk is the risk that changes in market prices, such as foreign exchange rates, interest rates and equity prices will affect TMG’s income or the value of its investment of financial instruments in a negative way. The objective of market risk management is to manage and control market risk exposures within acceptable ranges.

TMG has a policy of not using any forward, swap and/or future contracts. In 2009 and 2008 no interest-rate swap contracts were arranged. TMG also has the policy of restricted use of external financing, with the exception of Sky Radio Group and Keesing Media Group where external financing is temporary used. A main criterion is that TMG is not dependent on external finance companies. External borrowings may not exceed 2 times EBITDA. For further information, see the note on interest-rate risk.

The current economic conditions are for TMG reason to sell or discontinue less profitable activities and to change future expectations on results. As a consequence of these assumptions impairments took place on assets.

Credit risks

Credit risk arises principally from TMG’s receivables if a customer fails to meet its contractual obligation. The (industry-wide) terms of payment applied, the relatively limited dependence on individual customers and the historical payment ehaviour of our customers make it unnecessary to use financial instruments to limit this risk. The credit risk is principally concentrated in The Netherlands. The credit risk is slightly increased since 2008.

Impairment losses

Customers are required to pay within pre-set time limits. Exceeding the deadline results in service deliveries being halted. Customers are primarily media outlets, companies and subscribers. The aging of trade receivables at balance sheet date was:

In thousands of euros

Not past Past due Past due Past due Past due More than

Total due 30 - 60 days 60 - 90 days 90 - 180 days 180 - 360 days 360 days

Balance as at 31 December 2009 72,978 48,341 12,808 4,222 2,936 3,043 1,628

Balance as at 31 December 2008 86,249 51,027 17,726 12,537 1,512 1,994 1,453

The difference on the balance as at 31 December 2009, 31 December 2008 and Note 19 is caused by discontinued operations. TMG has established an impairment risk allowance for estimated losses on trade receivables. The impairment is based on payment arrears and the stipulated deadlines. Changes in the impairment risk allowance for trade receivables during the year were as follows:

In thousands of euros 2009 2008 Balance as at 1 January 8,599 5,410 Additions 3,172 4,592 Use -4,278 -1,403 Balance as at 31 December 7,493 8,599 Currency risk

TMG incurs currency risks to a very limited extent due to activities outside the euro zone, namely Denmark. The activities in Sweden and the Ukraine were discontinued in 2009. The net cash in and outflows of entities and their timing is such that no significant currency positions are created as a result. Sensitivity of TMG to foreign exchange rates is therefore very small. At the end of 2009 TMG had no forward contracts. TMG has the policy of responding to significant currency exposures by concluding forward contracts to cover the

risks over a period of one year. For an individual entity within TMG, a currency exposure is deemed to be significant if the size of revenue in any calendar month exceeds 500, and the cash flow has a probability of more than 50%.

Interest-rate risk

The most relevant interest-rate risk for TMG involves a mismatch between interest payments and the cash flows from financed assets. However, TMG is on balance a recipient of interest since the net debt position (recognised loans minus cash), is more than compensated by the interest-bearing cash and immediately accessible deposits. Given the limited size of the debt position, TMG is hardly affected by interest-rate fluctuations, nor do they have any significant influence on TMG’s financial position and result. For this reason, TMG does not use any interest-rate hedging, barring unforeseen circumstances.

Other market-price risk

Of the commodities traded on the global market, TMG only purchases paper, but to the extent that fluctuations in its price can have a substantial impact on the business result. TMG has decided not to hedge the risk of increasing paper prices because (a) TMG already has long-term contracts with paper suppliers and (b) large manufacturers of paper have taken up positions on the futures market making it insufficiently liquid to hedge significant volumes in a manner that would be attractive to TMG.

Liquidity risk

TMG has hardly any liquidity risk given the limited financial liabilities and the liquidity position. Liquidity risk is the risk that TMG will not be able to meet its financial obligations as they fall due. The aim of liquidity risk management is to maintain sufficient liquidity in order, as far as possible, to cover existing and future financial liabilities under normal and difficult circumstances and without incurring unacceptable losses or damaging the reputation of TMG.

The following lines of credit are available at balance sheet date:

• 45,000 overdraft facility that is unsecured, unrestricted and without expiry date. Interest would be payable at the EURIBOR one-month rate plus 1.25 basis points, on the balance-sheet date 590 (2008: 1,238) of this credit line was being used.

• Keesing Group has an indefinite credit facility of 5,000.

Capital management

The Executive Board’s policy is to maintain a strong capital base so as to maintain investor, creditor and market confidence and to sustain future development of business. The Executive Board monitors the return of capital, which TMG defines as the net operating income divided by total shareholders’ equity, excluding minority interests. The Executive Board also monitors the level of dividends to ordinary shareholders.

From time to time TMG purchases its own shares on the market. Buy and sell decisions are made on a specific transaction basis by the Executive Board within limits set by the Supervisory Board and the annual meeting of shareholders; TMG does not have a defined share-buy-back plan.