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5.1 Requisito usuario
The first, and perhaps the most recognized, indicator o f post-industrialism is the change from a goods-producing to service economy. It has been demonstrated that all three o f the cities have undergone deindustrialization from primarily goods-producing economies. To evaluate the service economy in each case, I trace the pattern o f types o f employment within each metropolitan statistical area between 1950 and 2012, the most recent year in the available data. The expected pattern is a simple one: divergent paths o f secondary and tertiary sector jobs.
Buffalo
From 1950 to 2012, Buffalo saw significant change in all three sectors. Table 4.1 lists the change o f employment in different sectors between 1950 and 2012 for the
Buffalo-Niagara Falls Metropolitan Statistical Area. In agriculture and mining, there was a 73% fall in employment from 8,969 to 2,494 jobs. From 1960, the year after which manufacturing declined, to 2012, manufacturing work declined 66.5% from 181,166 to 60,688 jobs. In the tertiary sector, two industries saw massive growth: finance, insurance, and real estate and general services. In 1950, 12,968 jobs existed in finance, insurance, and real estate compared to 38,208, a 195% increase. In the same time frame, general services rose nearly 300% from 67,888 to 270,322 jobs. General trade increased
moderately. Wholesale trade remained relatively stable while retail trade decreased 17%.
Total employment peaked in 1990 at 542,686, experienced a two percent drop in 2000 and has climbed back to 535,074 in 2012.
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2012 PRIMARY
SECONDARY
TERTIARY
Agriculture and Mining 8,969 5,886 5,073 4,762 5,545 2,418 2,555 2,494 Construction 21,353 27,388 22,048 18,991 25,981 24,236 25,205 24,752 Manufacturing 171,198 181,166 170,458 142,596 101,947 83,296 62,538 60,688 Transportation,
Communications, and
Other Public Utilities 40,044 35,915 33,585 35,873 36,588 40,134 36,804 35,542 Wholesale Trade 14,495 15,419 21,495 22,413 22,915 22,138 15,868 14,572 Retail Trade 76,540 69,628 85,334 90,855 101,203 63,824 63,144 63,759 Finance/Insurance/Real
Estate 12,968 16,849 20,621 26,570 35,370 33,285 38,884 38,208 Services 67,888 106,197 151,175 174,285 189,703 238,174 263,844 270,322 Total Employment 423,769 458,448 509,789 516,345 542,686 531,984 532,140 535,074
(Source: "Census o f Populations: Social and Economic Characteristics," 1950-2010; Am erican Com m unity Survey,
"Selected Characteristics: ACS 1-Year Estimates," U.S. Census Bureau, 2012)
Table 4.2 gives the sectoral distribution o f jobs as a percentage o f total
employment. Primary sector, extraction jobs, which were already miniscule in 1950 at 2.1%, made up 0.5% in 2012. Secondary employment dropped nearly 30% in the same period, from 45.4 to 16%. And tertiary jobs made up half o f all employment in 1950 and rose to almost 79% in 2012.
Table 4.2: Buffalo-Niagara Falls MSA: Sectoral Distribution as Percentage of Total Employment, 1950-2012
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2012
Primary 2.1 1.3 1.0 0.9 1.0 0.5 0.5 0.5
Secondary 45.4 45.5 37.8 31.3 23.6 20.2 16.5 16.0
Tertiary 50.0 53.2 61.2 67.8 71.1 74.7 78.7 78.9
(Source: “Census o f Populations: Social and Economic Characteristics,” 1950-2010;
American Community Survey, “Selected Economic Characteristics: ACS 1-Year Estimates,” U.S. Census Bureau, 2012)
The graphical representation o f sectoral distribution o f employment is shown in Figure 4.1 below. There is a clear and wide divergence in the secondary and tertiary sectors over the 62-year period.
Figure 4.1: Buffalo-Niagara Falls MSA: Sectoral Distribution as Percentage Change from 1950 Value, 1950-2012
100
-20
-40 ...
-60 i
-80
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2012
Primary Secondary ■ Tertiary
(Source: “Census o f Populations: Social and Economic Characteristics,” 1950-2010;
American Community Survey, “Selected Economic Characteristics: ACS 1-Year Estimates,” U.S. Census Bureau, 2012)
Given the divergence in sectoral employment from industrial to post-industrial Buffalo, it is evident that Buffalo has gone from a primarily goods-producing to service-based economy.
Cleveland
Like Buffalo, Cleveland’s economy witnessed sharp declines in primary and secondary sector employment and large gains in the tertiary sector. Table 4.3 below lists the change o f employment in industries between 1950 and 2012 for the Cleveland
M etropolitan Statistical Area. Agriculture and mining jobs saw a 78.3% decrease from 20,432 to 4,426, outpacing Buffalo. Construction jobs rose 77.3% from 1950 to 2000 but sharply declined to 45,959 in 2012. The peak o f manufacturing employment in the Cleveland area was in 1970, when over one-third o f all workers engaged in it. After 1970, however, manufacturing employment dropped 57.5% from 333,772 workers to 141,825.
Jobs in transportation, communications, and other public utilities dropped precipitously from 1950 to 1960 and remained relatively stable since, at nearly 60% o f its 1950 level.
General services rose steadily from 1950 to 2012 from 108,529 jobs to 464,328, a 328%
rise. In addition, total employment in the Cleveland area peaked in 2000 after rising 57.9% from its 1950 level. Since 2000, total employment has declined 8.9% to 963,681.
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2012
PRIMARY Agriculture and Mining 20,432 9,517 9,771 6,955 9,544 4,962 3,991 4,426
SECONDARY
Other Public Utilities 104,080 56,554 60,703 59,075 57,560 76,385 65,010 60,565 Wholesale Trade 24,449 28,756 41,344 40,539 44,699 39,652 32,432 29,843 TERTIARY
Retail Trade 97,850 112,118 137,858 132,554 134,993 118,555 104,570 104,430 Finance/Insurance/Real
Estate 23,162 31,833 42,425 49,085 58,158 79,743 78,340 73,273 Services 108,529 149,997 215,950 234,972 279,309 436,897 460,180 464,328 T o tal E m ploym ent 670,146 811,598 923,970 843,748 839,049 1,058,402 981,485 963,681
(Source: "Census o f Populations: Social and Economic Characteristics," 1950-2010; American Com m unity Survey,
"Selected Characteristics: ACS 1-Year Estimates," U.S. Census Bureau, 2012)
Table 4.4 below gives the sectoral distribution as a percentage o f total
employment. Primary sector employment dropped 2.5% from three percent in 1950 to 0.5 in 2012. Secondary sector employment fell 24% in the same period to 19.5% o f total employment in 2012. The tertiary sector shows nearly the same difference with almost a 24% increase in employment.
Table 4.4: Cleveland-Elyria MSA: Sectoral Distribution as Percentage of Total Employment, 1950-2012
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2012
Primary 3.0 1.2 1.1 0.8 1.1 0.5 0.4 0.5
Secondary 43.5 44.4 40.7 34.4 26.7 24.7 20.2 19.5
Tertiary 53.4 46.7 53.9 61.2 68.5 71.0 75.5 76.0
{Source: “Census o f Populations: Social and Economic Characteristics,” 1950-2010;
American Community Survey, “Selected Economic Characteristics: ACS 1-Year Estimates,” U.S. Census Bureau, 2012)
Figure 4.2 below graphs the sectoral distribution o f employment as a percentage o f the total. After a decrease in the tertiary sector and a slight increase o f the secondary sector, the two sectors diverged since 1960. Cleveland, however, has a lower proportion o f tertiary sector employment than Buffalo: 76% versus 78.9%, respectively.
Accordingly, secondary sector employment is greater in Cleveland than Buffalo: 19.5%
versus 16%, respectively.
Figure 4.2: Cleveland-Elyria MSA: Sectoral Distribution as Percentage Change from 1950 Value, 1950-2012
100
-20
-40
-60
-2012 -80
1990 2000 2010
1950 1960 1970 1980
Primary — Secondary • Tertiary
(Source: “Census o f Populations: Social and Economic Characteristics,” 1950-2010;
American Community Survey, “Selected Economic Characteristics: ACS 1-Year Estimates,” U.S. Census Bureau, 2012)
That the emphasis o f sectoral employment is increasingly placed on the tertiary sector qualifies the Cleveland area as meeting this first characteristic o f a post-industrial economy.
Pittsburgh
The nature o f Pittsburgh’s economic transformation follows similar patterns as Buffalo and Cleveland. Table 4.5 below details the change o f employment in different industries between 1950 and 2012 for the Pittsburgh Metropolitan Statistical Area.
Agriculture and mining employed 72,328 workers in 1950 and dropped sharply by 56.6%
in 1960 to 31,400. After 1960, these industries continued to decline, although with slight rises in 1990 and 2012. Between 1950 and 2012, agriculture and mining employment fell nearly 89%. Like Buffalo and Cleveland, as well, construction jobs increased over the same time period, a rise o f 29.8%. Manufacturing, as can be expected, decreased significantly and steadily since 1950 with a slight rise in 2012, a 65.7% difference from 336,473 jobs to 115,328. The two industry categories with the greatest differences are general services and finance, insurance, and real estate. General services saw a steady increase from 1950 to 2012, a 303% difference from 143,719 to 579,001 jobs. In the same period, finance, insurance, and real estate rose 181% from 28,322 to 79,678 jobs.
Similarly, total employment rose continuously from 922,522 to 1,139,532, a 23.5% rise.
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2012 PRIMARY Agriculture and Mining 42,328 31,400 22,441 18,473 20,192 8,048 9,129 13,177
SECONDARY
Other Public Utilities 84,739 72,470 70,428 75,937 87,598 99,783 84,100 85,927 Wholesale Trade 28,287 30,372 37,423 41,787 49,072 38,875 34,606 31,110 TERTIARY
Retail Trade 140,916 138,176 157,074 174,362 203,043 135,533 131,169 134,673 Finance/Insurance/Real
Estate 28,322 34,953 42,217 52,319 71,561 73,469 78,406 79,678
Services 143,719 175,412 246,386 311,614 379,287 487,054 556,867 579,001 Total Employment 922,522 939,649 985,402 1,008,966 1,069,691 1,074,663 1,102,914 1,139,532
(Source: "Census o f Populations: Social and Economic Characteristics," 1950-2010; American Com m unity Survey, "Selected Characteristics: ACS 1-Year Estimates," U.S. Census Bureau, 2012)
Table 4.6 below details the sectoral distribution o f employment as a percentage o f the total for Pittsburgh. Primary sector labor made up a considerably larger proportion o f employment in 1950 than either Buffalo or Cleveland, at 4.6%. By 2012, it made up only
1.2% o f total employment. Secondary sector employment made up 41.8% o f total employment and declined steadily until 2010, after which it rose slightly to 15.7%.
Conversely, tertiary sector employment rose from 46.2% in 1950 to 80.3 in 2010, with a slight drop in 2012.
Table 4.6: Pittsburgh MSA: Sectoral Distribution as Percentage of Total Employment, 1950-2012
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2012
Primary 4.6 3.3 2.3 1.8 1.9 0.7 0.8 1.2
Secondary 41.8 41.7 37.2 31.5 21.2 18.4 15.6 15.7
Tertiary 46.2 48.0 56.2 65.0 73.9 77.7 80.3 79.9
(Source: “Census o f Populations: Social and Economic Characteristics,” 1950-2010;
American Community Survey, “Selected Economic Characteristics: ACS 1-Year Estimates,” U.S. Census Bureau, 2012)
Figure 4.3 below gives a graphical representation o f the sectoral distribution o f employment as a percentage o f the total. The same divergence o f sectoral employment is seen in the Pittsburgh case. Secondary sector employment declined in importance as tertiary sector employment increased.
Figure 4.3: Pittsburgh MSA: Sectoral Distribution as Percentage Change from 1950 Value, 1950-2012
no
90
70
50
30
10
- 10
-30
-50
-70
-90
1960 1970
1950 1980 1990 2000 2010 2012
Primary " ♦ — Secondary • .... Tertiary
(Source: “Census o f Populations: Social and Economic Characteristics,” 1950-2010;
American Community Survey, “Selected Economic Characteristics: ACS 1-Year Estimates,” U.S. Census Bureau, 2012)
The Pittsburgh case, then, fits this first characteristic o f post-industrialism. To give greater nuance to the divergence in sectoral employment, the next section compares the patterns o f secondary and tertiary employment.
Comparing Sectoral Employment
Figure 4.4 below compares the patterns o f secondary and tertiary jobs as a percentage o f total employment in Buffalo, Cleveland, and Pittsburgh. In each case, tertiary sector jobs already made up a larger proportion o f total employment than
secondary sector jobs in 1950. That year, the graph shows that Pittsburgh had the lowest proportion o f secondary sector employment o f the three metropolitan areas. Buffalo had the greatest percentage o f secondary employment. In 2012, as well, Pittsburgh had the lowest proportion o f secondary sector jobs and Cleveland had the greatest. In 1950, Pittsburgh had the lowest proportion o f tertiary sector jobs and Cleveland had the greatest.
Just ten years later, Cleveland had the least. In 2012, however, Pittsburgh had the greatest.
Figure 4.4: Comparative Patterns of Secondary and Tertiary Sector Jobs as Percentage of Total Employment in Buffalo, Cleveland, and Pittsburgh MS As
90
80
Tertiary
70
60
50
40
30
Secondary 20
10
0
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2012
Buffalo . .. .. .. .. Cleveland • Pittsburgh
(Source: “Census o f Populations: Social and Economic Characteristics,” 1950-2010;
American Community Survey, “Selected Economic Characteristics: ACS 1-Year Estimates,” U.S. Census Bureau, 2012)
The above graph shows that, in terms o f the decreasing emphasis on secondary sector employment and increasing emphasis on tertiary sector employment, Pittsburgh maintains a greater degree o f post-industrialism. The divergence between the two sectors is greatest in the Pittsburgh metropolitan area and least in the Cleveland metropolitan area. The next section analyzes the second characteristic o f the post-industrial economy:
the importance o f human capital.