Respecto a las teorías de la Nueva Gestión Pública moderna

Brunei Darussalam had about 336 km of gas transmission pipeline and 661 km of gas distribution pipeline in service in 2001. Another 75 km of transmission pipelines were planned, in part to deliver gas from new offshore platforms between late 2003 and 2005. The transmission and distribution infrastructure necessary to deliver gas to domestic power producers can be expected to expand gradually as gas-fired power generation grows. But there are no plans to extend a natural gas distribution grid to residential or commercial customers since space heating requirements are negligible, other fuels are used for cooking, and air conditioning is readily powered by electricity.

A vital component of the gas transportation infrastructure in Brunei is comprised of facilities for LNG exports, mainly to Japan and Korea. The existing LNG terminal, from which exports began in 1972, has a capacity of 7.2 Mt per annum. Since current annual production of roughly 6.7 Mt is approaching the capacity limit, there are plans to upgrade the facilities and to build a new

27 _{IEEJ (2002a), page 111.}

28 _{Petroleum Unit (2002a). For natural gas, conversions from prices per MBtu to prices per toe assume a conversion} factor of 39.68 MBtu per toe from IEA (2002a). For LPG, conversion from price per cubic metre to price per toe assumes conversion factors of 1.844 cubic metres per tonne LPG and 1.13 toe per tonne LPG from IEA (2001) and a currency conversion rate of 1.84 Brunei dollars per US dollar per prevailing exchange rates in early 2003.

LNG train with 4 Mt per annum of additional capacity by 2008. There are also plans to extend the operating life of the terminal by 20 years through 2033. Estimated investment requirements by Brunei LNG for completion of these projects are B$2.4 billion (US$1.3 billion) through 2016.29

INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT INCENTIVES

Brunei Darussalam’s domestic natural gas prices appear to be substantially below those that would occur in a competitive marketplace. Regulated prices for gas use by industrial customers are as little as two-fifths of the price at which gas is sold to Brunei LNG for export and one-fifth of the export price of LNG itself. The regulated price for gas use in electricity production is even lower, representing even smaller fractions of the sales price to Brunei LNG and the LNG export price.

In view of these price differences, incentives for investment in transmission and distribution infrastructure for domestic gas use would appear to be much less attractive than those for investment in pipelines and LNG facilities for gas exports. However, under existing arrangements with Brunei Shell Petroleum, almost all costs for expansion of domestic infrastructure are borne by the government. Hence, the direct impact of these weak incentives is probably limited.

GAS MA R K E T RE F O R M GAS MARKET SKETCHES: CA N A D A

C A N A D A

GAS MARKET SETTING30

Canada is the world’s third-largest producer and second-largest exporter of gas, with gas supplied to the economy almost entirely from domestic production.

n Total gas production is projected to increase by more than half, from 153 Mtoe in

2000 to 236 Mtoe in 2020, with net exports as a share of production growing slightly from 53 percent to 54 percent.

n Primary supply of gas to the domestic economy is projected to grow by nearly half,

from 73.0 Mtoe in 2000 to 107.4 Mtoe in 2020, with modest yearly demand growth of 2.1 percent from 2000 to 2010 and 1.8 percent from 2010 to 2020. Figure 25 Evolution of Natural Gas Use in Canada, 1980-2020

1.8 1.9 5.8 9.8 16.9 18.5 20.2 24.6 30.7 38.1 12.4 14.0 14.6 15.6 18.2 22.1 22.9 10.2 8.3 7.0 13.9 11.4 8.7 12.9 9.5 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

Million Tons Oil Equivalent

Other Residential Commercial Industrial Electric

Canada’s natural gas use is well diversified, with about a third of gas demand in the commercial and residential sectors, a third used in the industrial sector, and another third consumed in production of oil, gas and electricity.

n The fastest growth in gas use is expected to occur in the electric power sector, with

about a tripling of demand from 5.8 Mtoe in 2000 to 16.9 Mtoe in 2020, nearly doubling the sector’s share of overall gas use from 8 percent to 16 percent.

30 _{Data from APERC (2002a) and more detailed internal energy balance tables. Historical data for 1980 and 1990 were} compiled by the International Energy Agency (IEA). Projections for 2000, 2010 and 2020 were made by APERC.

n Industrial gas use is projected to grow even more than power sector gas use in

absolute terms, from 24.6 Mtoe in 2000 to 38.15 Mtoe in 2020, with the industrial share of overall gas demand increasing slightly from 34 percent to 35 percent.

n Commercial and residential gas use are projected to grow more slowly, with the

commercial share of gas demand declining slightly from 14 percent in 2000 to 13 percent in 2020 and the residential share declining noticeably from 19 percent to 15 percent over the same period.31

G A S M A R K E T S T R U C T U R E AND OPERATION GAS MARKET PLAYERS

There are many competing gas producers in Canada. In 1985, just prior to gas market reforms, the top 10 producers accounted for 47.6 percent of production, the top 20 for 64.4 percent, and the top 100 for 90.1 percent. Ten years later, the market was somewhat less concentrated, with the top 10 firms producing 40.4 percent of the gas, the top 20 producing 59.4 percent and the top 100 producing 87.6 percent. But by 2001, the market was somewhat more concentrated than it had been before reform, with the top 10 producers accounting for 56.6 percent of output, the top 20 for 76.0 percent and the top 100 for 90.2 percent. Still, as the National Energy Board has noted, “no one company or group of large companies has an inordinate influence on the market. Supplies are available from hundreds of companies, all of which compete for their share of gas markets.”32 Figure 26 Market Shares of the Top Twenty Canadian Gas Producers in 2000

Source: National Energy Board

31 _{Natural Resources Canada (2002) presents a slightly different picture, with the electric power share of gas demand} growing even faster, from 10 to 23 percent (instead of from 8 to 16 percent), the industrial share declining from 32 to 29 percent (instead of increasing from 34 to 36 percent), the commercial share declining from 14 to 10 percent (instead of from 14 to 12 percent) and the residential share declining from 20 to 13 percent (instead of from 19 to 14 percent). 32 _{National Energy Board (1996), pages 5-6.}

0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 EnCa na Burlington Devon CNRL BP Talis man ExxonMobilPetro-Can Shell Husky Impe rial Rio AltoConoco Anad arko Penn Wes t Apac he Param ount ChevronMurphyEnerplus

Million Cubic Feet Per Day

0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16%

GAS MA R K E T RE F O R M GAS MARKET SKETCHES: CA N A D A

With respect to long-distance gas transportation for the Canadian market, there are major players in both Canada and the United States. The most extensive transmission pipeline is owned by the TransCanada Pipeline Company. It begins at production sites in Alberta, branching west to British Columbia and east through the plains of Saskatchewan and Manitoba to populous Ontario and Quebec. The TransCanada pipeline, which is regulated as a natural monopoly by the federal government, is linked to various provincial pipelines, which are generally oriented from north to south and regulated as natural monopolies by provincial governments. Quebec has two provincial pipelines and British Columbia has four, but one is dominant in each case in terms of both geographic extent and market share, and each serves a geographically distinct area. There are major pipelines (Westcoast, Foothills and Alliance) linking Canadian producers with the Western and Midwestern markets of the US, as well as a major pipeline (Vector) linking the US Midwest with gas

PRINCIPAL PLAYERS IN CANADA’S GAS MARKET