4.1. RESULTADO DE PRUEBAS PARA EL PORTAL WEB DEL MDMQ
4.1.1. RESULTADO DE PRUEBAS: RECOPILACIÓN DE INFORMACIÓN
To improve the study models and results, this section suggests some recommendations for
further studies. There are very few studies that examine FDI and portfolio investment in
Thailand using the Gravity Model. Research on FDI and portfolio investment in Thailand
has increased in recent years but many questions still remain unanswered. In this study,
the extended Gravity Model is used to determine the inflows of FDI and portfolio
investment into Thailand from 21 investing partners during 1980-2004. The following
section provides some areas that could be of interest for future study.
Empirical studies on FDI appear to focus on the developed countries (both host and home countries). Future studies on the determinants of FDI could focus on home and host of
developing countries in different regions such as FDI flows between Thailand and the
Latin American Countries. This is to investigate the FDI trend in these two regions and to consider the possible factors affecting the flow of FDI into these countries with similar economic structures, such as low labour costs, same level of technology, similar natural resources, but different culture. It may be useful for policy makers in the two regions to develop their FDI environments to complement each other. In addition, the results may
165 improve the relationship between Thailand and the Latin American countries, such as protecting the unfair and inequitable treatments in their dealings with other foreign investors from the developed countries. FDI studies can also be expanded with reverse causation in the context of Thailand or other developing countries situations such as
investment climate, trade barriers, and regional integration on FDI. This may provide a
preliminary analysis of investment barriers and motivations for the inflows of FDI into Thailand or other developing countries.
Future studies should compare the pre- and post-devaluation situation in developing countries that may have experienced devaluation or financial crises. Future studies could also investigate whether there are any changes in the correlation between domestic and foreign investments. According to the findings of this study, it could be beneficial to both domestic/foreign investors and policy makers, who are concerned with strategies, production plans, and promotion of FDI incentives in the future to study conditions pre- and post- devaluation in developing countries.
Beside economic factors, political and social factors should be also considered in order to capture an in-depth analysis of these variables on the inflow of FDI and other capital flows. Future studies could analyse the effects of the relationships between Thailand and other governments and domestic/international firms. The results could be used to compare Thailand’s investment policies and practices with those of other countries, which could provide a basis for upgrading Thailand’s investment performance. Regional and/or national social factors such as changes in education, legislation in the workplace, improved healthcare, changes in local people’s attitudes, population growth, and income distribution can be integrated into future studies. This could improve the government’s social policy aimed to maximise the benefits from FDI to increase the nation’s welfare.
Future research should also consider enlarging the Gravity Model by including external environment variables such as administrative, academic and business communities, law and legal, technology, and stakeholder environments. The knowledge of new technologies and trends may be distributed and transmitted by international trade and foreign investment.
166 Apart from the two regional integration dummy variables included in this study, future research should consider adding other economic integration regions, such as Bilateral Investment Treaties (BITs) and Free Trade Agreement (FTA), into the models. This includes investigating the impacts of BITs and FTA on FDI in Thailand or other host developing countries. In addition, it would be interesting to employ other variables such as transmission channels like freight rates, transaction fees, or restriction of monetary transfers. This will be useful for policy purposes.
The extended Gravity Model can be used to estimate the total volume of bilateral trade between Thailand and the 21 investing partners. Moreover, the extended Gravity Model can be used to study Thailand’s trade and investment relationships with similar Southeast Asian countries (Malaysia, Vietnam, Indonesia, and the Philippines) by using a specific industry framework to develop results. A comparative study between Thailand and its neighbours may be useful for policy makers and government agencies to develop FDI strategies and to attract more FDI into the region. In addition, the extended Gravity Model can be developed by using quarterly or semi-annual data and can be improved with specific goods and services such as the wine industry and wood products. This is considered useful for investors and policy makers in specific manufacturing sectors.
It would also be useful to examine the inflows of FDI in different kinds of industry, for example, automotive and parts, textile, electronics and electrical products, chemical and pharmaceutical products, and rubber products. Considering these inflows would help domestic investors, foreign investors, and policy makers to understand the nature of the industries better, as they would be able to measure the level of resources between each industry. The studies of specific industries would allow policy makers to develop better strategies to attract greater inflow of FDI into Thailand. Similar studies in other industries would enable investors and policy makers to measure the level of resources in order to extend product lines and increase investment.
Finally, future research should consider modelling, for example, governance of host and home countries, capital market development, special concessions/privileges for (foreign) investors, environmental regulations, and factors that may be significant drivers of foreign investment. This will provide more robust policy inferences.
167
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