The primary objective of the empirical analysis in this chapter is to examine the extent of HE access and
success among the 2005 WCED matric cohort and evaluate the underlying correlates on which observed HE
28
The data indicates that 415 of the learners who wrote the 2005 SCE and who had identification numbers also wrote the 2006 SCE. As it is not possible to track individuals for whom no identification information is available in the WCED matric data, this is likely to be a lower-bound estimate of the number of learners who re-wrote the SCE in 2006.
3.3. DATA AND METHODOLOGY 48
outcomes for the group are predicated. To this end, the analysis focusses on three main metrics: the HE access
rate, the HE completion rate, and the HE dropout rate.29
While access rates, completion rates, and dropout rates are commonly used terms in the HE literature, their intended meanings can differ substantially from one study to the next and they are rarely estimated using a
single, consistent methodology. In the interest of methodological transparency and to avoid potential confu-
sion, each of these metrics is therefore explicitly defined below.30
3.3.3.1 Participants and the access rate
In the analysis below, HEparticipants refer to all individuals who have enrolled in HE as first-time entering undergraduate students at some stage. The HEaccess rate expresses the cumulative number of individuals from a given cohort who have participated in HE within a given number of years, as a percentage of the total
number of individuals in that cohort.
Access rates are both cohort- and time-specific. For example, the 1-year access rate for learners from the 2005
WCED matric cohort reflects the percentage of the learners from the cohort who entered the HE system as
first-time entering undergraduate students in 2006 (i.e. one year after writing the 2005 SCE). Similarly, the
4-year access rate for females from the cohort reflects the percentage of female learners who participated in
HE at any stage between 2006 and 2009 (i.e. within four years of writing the 2005 SCE).
It is also possible to introduce additional specificity when estimating access rates. For example, the 3-year
undergraduate Bachelor’s degree access rate for the 2005 WCED matric cohort would reflect the percentage
of learners from the cohort who enrolled in 3-year undergraduate Bachelor’s degree programmes as first-time
entering undergraduate students between 2006 and 2008.
3.3.3.2 Completers and the completion rate
In the context of this chapter, acompleter is any individual who has successfully completed a formal un- dergraduate or otherwise-specified HE academic programme/qualification. The HEcompletion rate, in turn, expresses the cumulative number of completers from a given first-time entering undergraduate cohort who
completed their studies within a specific number of years, as a percentage of the total number of students in
that cohort.
Like access rates, completion rates are both cohort- and time-specific. However, completion rates are ne-
cessarily also qualification or programme-specific. The 4-year completion rate for the WCED 2006 first-time
entering undergraduate cohort, for example, reflects the percentage of the students from the WCED 2006 first-
time entering undergraduate cohort who successfully completed undergraduate qualifications within the first
four years of study (i.e. between 2006 and 2009).
29
HE access and success are not only difficult to define, but, as already noted in Section 3.2, also difficult to measure. This is perhaps one of the reasons why few studies in South Africa appear to adhere to the same definitions of HE access, throughput, or dropout. 30
These definitions are based on the author’s reading of the international literature on the quantitative analysis of HE outcomes based on unit-record learner and/or student data. They are also a response to the lack of a coherent, unified framework for the quantitative analysis of HE outcomes in South Africa. The definitions given do not necessarily correspond to those in other studies.
3.3. DATA AND METHODOLOGY 49
Crucially, the overall undergraduate completion rate is completely agnostic about whether or not the un-
dergraduate qualifications/programmes that students complete are the same as the undergraduate quali-
fications/programmes for which they were initially enrolled as first-time entering undergraduate students.
In other words, completers who switch between academic programmes, qualification types, fields of study,
and/or HEIs prior to completing their studies would still contribute to the overall undergraduate completion
rate as long as the programmes that they complete are classified as undergraduate programmes.
In contrast to the overall undergraduate completion rate, the 3-year completion rate for 3-year undergraduate
Bachelor’s degree programmes among the WCED 2006 first-time entering undergraduate cohort would reflect
the percentage of the students from the WCED 2006 first-time entering undergraduate cohort who were
enrolled in 3-year undergraduate Bachelor’s degree programmes in 2006 and had successfully completed 3-
year undergraduate Bachelor’s degree programmes by the end of 2008 (i.e. with three years of study).
3.3.3.3 Non-completers, dropouts, retention and dropout rates
This chapter draws an important distinction betweennon-completers and HE dropouts.
In the context of the analysis that follows, anon-completer is any student who is enrolled for a formal un- dergraduate qualification, but who has not yet successfully completed that qualification. The non-completer
retention rate denotes the number of non-completers from a given first-time entering undergraduate cohort who are still enrolled after a given number of years, as a percentage of the total number of students in that
cohort.
In contrast to non-completers, a dropout is any student who, having been enrolled for an undergraduate programme, exits the HE system without having completed any formal academic qualification and without
subsequently returning to the HE system.31 This implies that students can only be classified as dropouts if they (a) exit the public HE system for good and (b) do not complete any undergraduate qualification. The
HEdropout rate consequently expresses the cumulative number of dropouts from a given first-time entering undergraduate cohort who dropped out within a specified number of years, as a percentage of the total number
of students in that cohort. The primary reason for definingdropout and the dropout rate in this manner is to prevent students who switch between programmes, qualification types, fields of study, and/or HEIs, yet
ultimately complete their studies, from being incorrectly classified as dropouts.32
Like access and completion rates, dropout rates are also cohort- and time-specific. As already mentioned,
however, they are not programme- or qualification-specific. The 3-year dropout rate for the WCED 2006 first-
time entering undergraduate cohort, for example, reflects the percentage of the students from the WCED 2006
first-time entering undergraduate cohort who left the HE system before 2009 (i.e. within three years of study)
without having completed any undergraduate qualification between 2006 and 2008. Similarly, the 2-year
dropout rate for 3-year diploma programme students from the WCED 2006 first-time entering undergraduate
31
As explained below, the fact that it is generally not possible to observe whether individuals who exit the HE system return to continue their studies at a later stage has important implications for the estimation of dropout and dropout rates in practice. 32
Say, for example, that a student commences with a 3-year undergraduate BComm degree. After two years, the student switches to a 4-year BSc degree which she successfully completes after a further three years of study. While the student did not complete the specific programme with which she originally started, she did ultimately successfully complete an undergraduate qualification.
Thus, it would clearly be incorrect to classify her as aHE dropout. However, this is often implicitly what is done in some studies
3.3. DATA AND METHODOLOGY 50
cohort reflects the percentage of those students who left the HE system before 2008 (i.e. within two years of
study) without having completed any undergraduate qualification between 2006 and 2007.
Lastly, given the definitions above it should be clear that all students who have not (yet) completed their stud-
ies fall into one of two groups: retained non-completers or dropouts. The retention rate and the dropout rate
therefore effectively represent two sides of the same coin. As the dropout rate increases, the non-completer
retention rate must necessarily decrease. Similarly, a persistently high retention rate must be indicative of a
low dropout rate. For this reason, the concepts of dropout and retention are used interchangeably in some
instances in the remainder of this chapter.