3.1. PRESENTACIÓN DE RESULTADOS
3.1.2. Resultados del Cuestionario de control interno aplicado al personal
The dynamic panel model findings, including equation of generalized method of moment system (SYS-GMM) suggest that for agriculture sector in region positive change in terms of trade has a significant positive effect on sectors growth in terms of GDP (see table 4) ( also see appendix for fixed effect). Again per capita income showed significant positive effect on sector’s
share of GDP growth matching the first model as well as current account. The coefficient debt service once again conclude a negative effect on agriculture sector (% of GDP) and leaving the crowding out effect significant negative for this sector. Moving on debt indicator, face value of external debt in terms of GDP did not show any significance, but three other indicators found significant negative effect on sector’s value added growth, stating that increase in external debt lead to agriculture sector contraction. Curvilinearity indicator stand for inverted U shape, however as both linear and curvilinear indicators are negative it is more possible that it contains only a one - descending part, as it did not show an inverted V shape form. For dynamic panel model, including SYS-GMM estimates Sargan over identification passed the test for validity of instrument set.
In the table 5, the results for manufacturing sectors can be seen. For manufacturing sector, per capita income indicator showed significant negative effect on value added growth, indicating the same trend as previous model, toward common level of income across region. Change in terms of trade differ between models. As for value added growth, it showed significant negative effect while for growth in terms of GDP – significant positive. Result are opposing, and while positive change in term of trade shows that economy is getting better, and more money comes into economy, driving manufacturing sector in terms of, however the
developing countries often face difficulties as it exports cheaper goods and services compared to imported ones.
Table 4. Dynamic panel data (SYS-GMM) output results (dependent variables: agriculture value added and agriculture as % of GDP growth). P-value significant *** at 1%, ** at 5%, * at 10%.
Secondary school enrollment rate as it was expected increase quality of human capital and has a significant positive effect on valued added growth. Domestic investment also
contribute significant and positive effect on manufacturing growth. Current account counts for significant positive effect on value added growth. As for developing regions it is common to run a deficit – import more to increase productivity, however the results say that for this region positive change in current account leads to higher value added growth for manufacturing – possibly leading to benefit from higher level of manufacture production exports. Total debt service showed significant positive effect – very different from the expectations. As the debt service is significant while any of debt indicators did not show any significance at the same time, it does not make a clear idea of how strong it can affect sector. However face value and present value of stock of external debt (both as share of exports) did show a negative significant effect
Value added growth % GDP growth Value added growth % GDP growth Value added growth % GDP growth Value added growth % GDP growth Agriculture ( t-1 ) (5.83e- 0.16)-0.48*** -0.09 (0.27) -0.47*** (4.11e- 017) -0.09 (0.2) (3.44e- 018)-0.49*** -0.08 (0.33) (2.45e- 017)-0.48*** (0.15)-0.1 Constant -20.5 (0.15) (0.99)0.13 -4.8 (0.16) -34.8 (0.14) -42.2** (0.047) 63.39 (0.66) -6.2 (0.11) -23.3 (0.35)
Per capita income (natural logs) (0.37)0.7
4.48 (0.4) -0.2 (0.7) 5.3 (0.2) -0.14 (0.86) 8.1* (0.05) 0.55 (0.44) 3.7 (0.45)
Change in terms of trade (%) -1.68 (0.83)
116.2*** (0.009) -1.6 (0.83) 113.4** (0.01) -0.95 (0.91) 115.2*** (0.006) -2.15 (0.77) 114.5** (0.011)
Secondary school enrolment (rate) -0.006 (0.78) 0.005 (0.96) -0.007 (0.64) 0.003 (0.97) -0.003 (0.86) -0.03 (0.77) -0.03 (0.23) 0.03 (0.74) Domestic investment (% of GDP) 0.16 (0.19) (0.58)-0.6 0.19* (0.06) -0.55 (0.57) 0.16* (0.07) (0.58)-0.5 (0.34)0.14 -0.26 (0.79) Current account (% of GDP) -0.056 (0.54) -1.3*** (0.0016) (0.24)-0.1 -1.4*** (0.009) -0.09*** (0.008) -1.14** (0.01) 0.004 (0.96) -1.23** (0.009) Total debt services (% of export) (0.35)0.06 -0.52** (0.06) (0.32)0.11 -0.49* (0.07) (0.36)0.09 -0.7
(0.14)
0.15
(0.14)
-0.5**
(0.04)
Value of stock of external debt (% of GDP) (natural logs)
4.42
(0.4)
-8.5
(0.75)
Value of stock of external debt (% of GDP) (natural logs)^2
-0.38
(0.54)
0.65
(0.84)
Present value of the stock of external debt (% GDP) (natural logs)
-4.01*
(0.1)
-10.7
(0.4)
Present value of the stock of external debt (% GDP) (natural logs)^2
-2.11*
(0.05)
-5.06
(0.42)
Value of stock of external debt (% of exports) (natural logs)
-15.6*
(0.05)
-47.9
(0.49)
Value of stock of external debt (% of exports) (natural logs)^2
-1.5*
(0.06)
5.1
(0.49)
Present value of the stock of external debt (% exports) (natural logs)
-2.8*
(0.07)
-0.1
(0.98)
Present value of the stock of external debt (% exports) (natural logs)^2
1.6
(0.66)
-18.6
on both models (value added growth and share of GDP growth) while the latter showed and a U shape curvilinear relationship. Again, Sargan over identification passed the test for validity of instrument set.
Table 5. Dynamic panel data (SYS-GMM) output results (dependent variables: manufacture value added and manufacture as % of GDP growth). P-value significant *** at 1%, ** at 5%, * at 10%.
As for service sector (see table 6) per capita income showed significant negative (for value added growth) and positive (as for % of GDP growth), indicating that increase in income per capita tend to lower service sector value added growth but stimulates it growth in terms of GDP. The result a similar to manufacturing sector’s – change in terms of trade did not make value added growth higher but growth in terms of GDP. Secondary school enrolment did show contradicting result with negative value, while domestic investment as expected – positive.
Value added growth % GDP growth Value added growth % GDP growth Value added growth % GDP growth Value added growth % GDP growth Manufacture ( t-1 ) (4.45e- 07)-0.5*** 0.17* (0.08) (7.7e- 017-0.5*** 0.16** (0.05) -0.511*** (8.9e- 08) 0.17* (0.07) -0.52*** (2.44e- 06) 0.19* (0.07) Constant -12.02 (0.42) 12.1 (0.85) 2.9 (0.66) -49** (0.03) 26.8 (0.61) 161.3 (0.24) -0.46 (0.93) -43.8* (0.06)
Per capita income (natural logs) -2.6* (0.09)
-0.38 (0.9) -2.9** (0.01) 3.4 (0.33) -2.7*** (0.0087) 6.3** (0.05) -2.15** (0.02) 1.9 (0.35)
Change in terms of trade (%) -16.4*** (0.004) 128.761** (0.016) -15.44** (0.011) 122.4** (0.012) -15.1** (0.01) 120.1** (0.05) -16.7*** (0.003) 126.8** (0.025) Secondary school enrolment
(rate) 0.1* (0.059) -0.09 (0.32) 0.11** (0.016) -0.18 (0.18) 0.1** (0.01) -0.17 (0.35) 0.07 (0.12) -0.04 (0.61) Domestic investment (% of GDP) 0.65** (0.047) 1.44*** (0.005) 0.66** (0.017) 1.29** (0.014) 0.73** (0.016) 1.38*** (0.0005) 0.52*** (0.006) 1.6*** (0.0036) Current account (% of GDP) 0.41** (0.01) -0.41 (0.43) 0.38** (0.04) -0.21 (0.69) 0.48** (0.042) 0.11 (0.8) 0.36** (0.04) -0.32 (0.57) Total debt services (% of export) 0.094*** (0.0031) (0.73)0.12 0.07 (0.15) 0.17* (0.66) 0.03 (0.7) -0.17 (0.71) 0.13* (0.06) -0.13 (0.78) Value of stock of external debt (%
of GDP) (natural logs)
4.26
(0.55)
-9.03
(0.75)
Value of stock of external debt (% of GDP) (natural logs)^2
-0.33
(0.7)
0.06
(0.97)
Present value of the stock of external debt (% GDP) (natural logs)
1.9
(0.29)
-4.89
(0.71)
Present value of the stock of external debt (% GDP) (natural logs)^2
0.45
(0.69)
0.36
(0.95)
Value of stock of external debt (% of exports) (natural logs)
-12.6*
(0.058)
-100.1*
(0.07)
Value of stock of external debt (% of exports) (natural logs)^2
1.4
(0.39)
10.2*
(0.06)
Present value of the stock of external debt (% exports) (natural logs)
-2.3
(0.18)
7.5
(0.4)
Present value of the stock of external debt (% exports) (natural logs)^2
6.5**
(0.03)
-19.15*
Current account as for manufacturing, here as well had significant positive value on service sector’s value added growth, while in terms of GDP growth had expected negative value.
Table 6. Dynamic panel data (SYS-GMM) output results (dependent variables: service value added and service as % of GDP growth). P-value significant *** at 1%, ** at 5%, * at 10%.
Moving on debt servicing issue it showed a significant negative effect on service, showing an investment crowding out effect, negatively influencing service sector growth in terms of GDP. From four indicator one showed significant positive effect on service sector value added growth. Present value of stock of external debt showed positive significant curvilinear relationship for both models. Sargan over identification passed the test for validity of instrument set.
Value added growth % GDP growth Value added growth % GDP growth Value added growth % GDP growth Value added growth % GDP growth Service ( t-1 ) (3.55e- 013)-0.32*** -0.39*** (0.0025) -0.34*** (5.8e- 020) 0.16** (0.05) (1.88e- 019)-0.33*** -0.4*** (0.002) (2.72e- 017)-0.35 -0.41*** (0.002) Constant -44.57 (0.54) (0.97)-1.6 34.3*** (0.003) -49** (0.03) -62.19 (0.4) -17.9 (0.8) 36.4** (0.016) -19.5** (0.04) Per capita income (natural logs) (0.55)-1.9 (0.4)1.7 --3.3 (0.17) (0.33)3.4 -6.7*** (0.0015) 4.1** (0.02) (0.13)-4.2 5.8*** (0.0005) Change in terms of trade (%) -73.8*** (6.63e- 05) -14.9 (0.22) -68.9*** (0.0004) 122.4** (0.012) -69.7*** (0.0001) -17.8 (0.16) -68.*** (0.003) -16.89 (0.13) Secondary school enrolment
(rate) 0.08 (0.51) -0.15 (0.16) 0.14 (0.16) -0.18 (0.18) 0.11 (0.27) -0.2*** (0.007) 0.1 (0.3) -0.22*** (0.0002) Domestic investment (% of GDP) -0.01 (0.97) -0.07 (0.89) -0.01 (0.98) 1.29** (0.014) 0.05 (0.91) -0.19 (0.6) -0.25 (0.66) -0.48 (0.22) Current account (% of GDP) 0.65 (0.11) -0.75* (0.09) 0.68* (0.08) -0.21 (0.69) 0.49 (0.3) -0.59 (0.33) 0.45 (0.28) -0.71 (0.27)
Total debt services (% of export) -0.39 (0.18)
-0.19 (0.12) -0.52 (0.14) -0.17* (0.66) -0.2 (0.48) -0.27 (0.11) -0.35 (0.24) -0.27* (0.08)
Value of stock of external debt (% of GDP) (natural logs)
24.1
(0.42)
3.9
(0.89)
Value of stock of external debt (% of GDP) (natural logs)^2
-1.9
(0.57)
-0.8
(0.76)
Present value of the stock of external debt (% GDP) (natural logs)
14.4**
(0.03)
-4.89
(0.71)
Present value of the stock of external debt (% GDP) (natural logs)^2
3.88
(0.3)
0.36
(0.95)
Value of stock of external debt (% of exports) (natural logs)
44.7
(0.15)
1.3
(0.96)
Value of stock of external debt (% of exports) (natural logs)^2
-4.3
(0.17)
0.002
(0.99)
Present value of the stock of external debt (% exports) (natural logs)
1.72
(0.61)
2.75
(0.3)
Present value of the stock of external debt (% exports) (natural logs)^2
17.38***
(0.005)
14.9***