2.189 Over the next decade, a range of actions are being taken in the agriculture sector – both industry- and government-led – which will keep us on track towards the level of emissions abatement identified in the fourth carbon budget period.
2.190 In England, the agricultural industry
partnership published the Agriculture Industry GHG Action Plan: Framework for Action in 2010, outlining how reductions could be delivered by the end of the third carbon budget period through the uptake of more resource efficient practices.90
It has committed to reducing emissions by 3 MtCO2e a year during the third carbon budget period, and in 2011 published a Phase 1 Delivery Plan which explained how the Action Plan will be implemented. Many of the measures identified – such as better use of nutrients, improving
livestock productivity and better use of on-farm energy and fuel – could be adopted at minimal or no cost and would help to improve industry competitiveness. The meat and dairy sector bodies have also delivered industry-led environmental product roadmaps, which encourage farmers to employ more sustainable farming practices and management techniques.91
Chart 28: Greenhouse gas emissions projections in the agriculture sector in the first three
carbon budgets and illustrative emissions abatement potential in the fourth carbon budget period92
50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 CB1 CB2 CB3 CB4 Projected emissions over the first four carbon budgets
e Additional emissions
MtCO
2
abatement potential over the fourth carbon budget period
2008 2013 2018 2023 2028 2033 2038 2043 2048 2050
Year
90 For further information see: www.nfuonline.com/ghgap
91 See: www.eblex.org.uk/documents/content/publications/p_cp_testingthewater061210.pdf and www.dairyco.net/library/research-development/environment/
dairy-roadmap.aspx
92
The emissions projections derive from Updated Energy and Emissions Projections data. The illustrative emissions abatement potential for the fourth carbon budget derives from the fourth carbon budget scenarios discussed in Part 3 of this report.
2.191 To support these industry-led efforts to reduce emissions, the Government has undertaken a number of initiatives, including the following:
• Investing £12.6 million, in partnership with the Devolved Administrations, to strengthen understanding of on-farm emissions, and enable better reporting of actions taken on the ground and more targeted advice.
• Investing in a wider programme of research on measures with potential to reduce emissions, for example the impact and cost effectiveness of tackling endemic diseases in cattle, improving nutrient use through better feed management and optimising lifetime protein use for milk production.
• Engaging in partnerships with Research Councils and industry through the Technology Strategy Board, and internationally through the Global Research Alliance, to promote exchange of data, training and research to help improve how agricultural greenhouse gas research is conducted and to enhance scientific capability.
• Funding a pilot project to trial methods for delivering integrated environmental advice for farmers – including on greenhouse gas emissions – with a view to wider delivery by the Government and industry advisors.
• Including climate change mitigation as a topic of advice under the Farm Advisory System contract during 2012 and 2013.
• Committing, in the Natural Environment White Paper, to review use of advice and incentives for farmers and land managers, to create a more integrated, streamlined and efficient approach that is clear and that can yield better environmental results.
2.192 There is a close relationship between the level of agricultural production and emissions from
the sector. The Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) and other factors that impact on production levels are likely to be strong drivers of action on emissions. Alongside the EU’s budget negotiations for 2014–20, the shape of the CAP for this period is currently being re-negotiated. The European Commission’s proposals for the future of the CAP were formally released on 12 October 2011.93
These will be negotiated by Member States in the Agriculture Council and, for the first time, with the European Parliament through co-decision.94
Through funding for the UK’s agri-environment programme, the CAP already incentivises actions that deliver emissions reductions and the Government is committed to making the CAP more effective in delivering environmental benefits. The negotiations are expected to last throughout 2012 and 2013, and final legislation is due to come into effect on 1 January 2014.
2.193 In 2012 the Government will involve a number of interested organisations in evaluating the likely impact of all these policies in England, as well as in assessing the progress being made by the industry-led Action Plan, in order to identify the policy options for the future.95 It is
probable that the sector will reduce emissions through a combination of on-farm measures that can be successfully implemented (and others that may emerge over time or as a result of further improvements in technology), supported by developments in the broader policy and economic landscape.
2.194 Over the fourth carbon budget period, the Government’s analysis (based on a review of the Scottish Agricultural College’s (SAC’s) analysis for the Committee on Climate Change) suggests that, at a carbon price of zero, there is around 7.5 MtCO2e a year (central estimate, of which 5 MtCO2e is in England) of total annual abatement potential from the application of on-farm measures.96
93
See: www.defra.gov.uk/food-farm/farm-manage/cap-reform/
94 This means joint decision making by both the European Parliament and the Council. 95 See: www.defra.gov.uk/corporate/about/what/business-planning/
96
In their 2008 advice on the level of the first three carbon budgets, the Committee on Climate Change relied on analysis carried out by SAC, which considered a range of measures that can be adopted by farmers, including measures to improve crop nutrient management, manure treatment and storage, plant breeding, soil drainage and the modification of livestock diets. The central estimate includes the abatement that industry expects to deliver during the third carbon budget period. This is within a range of between 3 MtCO2e and 19 MtCO2e by the end of the fourth carbon budget period.
2.195 While in theory this represents an additional 16.9 MtCO2e of abatement over the fourth carbon budget period compared with baseline projections, the uncertainty in our data means that it is difficult to determine the exact potential for reductions in the fourth carbon budget period and beyond.97
Work is under way to improve the agriculture greenhouse gas inventory, which will help to refine the analysis of what is feasible.