Capítulo 6. Pruebas y análisis
6.2. Resultados
The year 2016 marks the end of the decade-long Abu Dhabi Dialogue, and as such is a fitting time to reflect on the effect that this World Bank-led Track II dialogue has had on transboundary water cooperation in South Asia – the prime objective of the initiative. Evaluating the Abu Dhabi Dialogue in this systematic way contributes to lessons learned from the Nile Basin Initiative (on which the Abu Dhabi Dialogue was based) and allows for better informed planning for future interventions of a similar nature. It also contributes to the knowledge around how the World Bank and other international organisations and foreign aid donors construct and conduct interventions into transboundary water governance. This is novel and significant because international organisation and bilateral aid donors have in recent decades been increasing their involvement in transboundary water governance in developing countries. The narrative around this trend implies that it is international organisations and foreign aid donors that are best placed to facilitate positive transboundary water interaction between riparian states. Yet, my research suggests that this may not always be the case. Insights from within the Ganges- Brahmaputra problemshed provide new approaches to addressing transboundary water conflicts and building cooperation.
Numerous critiques exist about the World Bank, its financing, and its influence on international development. However, few, if any, critiques exist about the World Bank’s effect on transboundary water governance. This thesis can thus be taken as an overview of the World Bank in this regard, using the Ganges-Brahmaputra problemshed as a case study.
As per the literature review chapter, this research also fits into the body of knowledge on transboundary water conflicts and cooperation (together known as water interaction).
102 Dore, J 2014, ‘An agenda for deliberative water governance arenas in the Mekong’, Water Policy, vol. 16, p. 203
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This thesis deepens our understanding of transboundary water interaction by building on what is already known about the coexistence of conflict and cooperation and examining the conditions that are necessary for low conflict, high cooperation interaction to emerge in. Colopy notes that ‘[t]ransboundary river issues have become a field of study, an academic discipline. Emerging theories in this field draw on laws governing other natural resources, and on the success or failure of past river-sharing treaties. A body of precedents is emerging.’103 This thesis is a further contribution to this body of knowledge about how conflicts and cooperation emerge over specific transboundary rivers.
Secondly, this thesis contributes to the still small but slowly growing body of knowledge about how foreign-led interventions can more effectively influence conditions in which transboundary interaction may become more cooperative. The focus on what conditions can enable transboundary water cooperation is novel and important because, as the literature review illustrates, while there are many studies on what transboundary cooperation looks like as an end state, there is very little on how to get there, especially through foreign-led interventions.
Track II dialogue, or the informal discussions between government and non-government stakeholders facilitated by third parties, is increasingly the preferred method of international organisations and bilateral aid donors in interventions into water governance. Yet, as Jones has recently observed, ‘relatively little has been written on what the third party can do to assist in transfer [of ideas from Track II fora into praxis].’104 This thesis explores how international organisations and foreign aid donors may be able to influence the governance of transboundary waters, especially through the transfer of western ideas around good governance, cooperation, sustainable development, et cetera. In regards to knowledge of water governance in the Ganges-Brahmaputra problemshed, and South Asia more broadly, this research also fills an important gap. The region remains relatively under-analysed by scholars of water interaction, perhaps because the risk of violent conflict here seems less than that in more politically volatile basins (e.g., Nile, Jordan, Tigris-Euphrates). As such, there has not yet been a comprehensive study of the hydropolitics in the Ganges-Brahmaputra problemshed, nor of the effects of international actors on water conflicts and cooperation in this region. Yet, as Asthana and Shukla
103 Colopy, C 2012, Dirty, Sacred Rivers; Confronting South Asia's Water Crisis, Oxford University Press, New York, p 319
104 Jones, P 2015, Track Two Diplomacy in Theory and Practice, Stanford University Press, Stanford, p. 148
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believe, the hydropolitics in the Ganges-Brahmaputra problemshed may be ‘one of the most urgent, complex, and contentious issues facing the regional community in the twenty-first century.’105
At the same time, the literature does exist on water conflicts and cooperation in South Asia tends to be hawkish and focused on the national security aspects of transboundary water governance (a point that is elaborated in the literature review in Chapter 2). Much has been written about domestic water governance issues in India, Nepal, Bhutan and Bangladesh, but few studies have been conducted into transboundary water interaction in the Ganges or Brahmaputra basins. Malhorta shows that:
‘[t]here is no systematic and well researched work on water issues in South Asia, which is a glaring discrepancy considering that this is an issue that seriously impacts most of the countries in South Asia. It is even starker to notice a complete absence of a comparative study of the bilateral water relations of a set of countries with the bilateral relations of another set of countries.’106
This thesis fills this knowledge gap by examining the hydropolitics of the Ganges- Brahmaputra problemshed by comparing bilateral water relations between India-Nepal, India-Bhutan, and India-Bangladesh.
Dash points out that very few systematic studies are available on regional cooperation in South Asia, and those that do exist focus mostly on historical or economic aspects rather than on the interplay of domestic considerations in regional interests and relationships.107 Lahiri-Dutt adds that:
‘Discussions regarding the water resources of South Asia conventionally begin with one of the three approaches: a description of the size of the population compared with the amount of land and water available, a description of population distribution and rainfall/water availability
105 Asthana, V & Shukla, AC 2014, Water Security in India; Hope, Despair, and the Challenges of
Human Development, Bloomsbury Academic, New York, p. 241
106Malhorta, P 2010, ‘Water Issues between Nepal, India and Bangladesh; A Review of Literature’, Special Report #95, Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies, New Delhi, p. 10
107 Dash, KC 2008, Regionalism in South Asia: Negotiating cooperation, institutional structures, Routledge, New York, p. 4
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figures, or an inventory of available water resources of any one country.’108
This thesis moves beyond these conventional approaches and focuses instead on the quality of interaction between stakeholders that determines whether water resources, scarce or otherwise, are managed in a mutually agreeable way.
The dearth of knowledge about transboundary hydropolitics in the Ganges-Brahmaputra problemshed, however, is likely to change as donors and international organisations continue to increase investments in the governance of the region’s natural resources, including transboundary waters, in the near future. Matthew sees South Asia as likely to become ‘the linchpin of humanity’s collective effort’109 in the coming decades as the planet faces increasingly complex collective action problems. Mollinga too has noted the increasing international interest in the region’s hydropolitics. ‘South Asian water resources scholarship is experiencing an upsurge,’ he writes,
‘[l]ike water itself, the expansion of writing on water during, say, the past 10 to 15 years has both quantitative and qualitative aspects. A recent publication on water conflicts in India states that there are a “million revolts in the making”. The growing volume of published work is no doubt a response to the proliferation of water management problems and the active contestations these involve.’110
As such, this thesis responds to a need of international actors to better understand the nature of transboundary water interaction between India, Nepal, Bhutan and Bangladesh. This is in accordance with the transdisciplinary approach, which stresses the importance of collaboration with non-academic stakeholders for the resolution of ‘real-world’ problems, and communicating research findings to these stakeholders.111
The insights of this thesis may prove useful to program managers at the South Asia Water Initiative or the Australian Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade interested in
108 Lahiri-Dutt, K 2008, ‘Introduction’ in K Lahiri-Dutt, & RJ Wasson (eds), Water First: Issues and
Challenges for Nations and Communities in South Asia, Sage, New Delhi, p. xxxii
109Matthew, R 2014, ‘Foreword’, in V Asthana, & AC Shukla 2014, Water Security in India; Hope,
Despair, and the Challenges of Human Development, Bloomsbury Academic, New York, p. x 110Mollinga, P 2008, ‘Foreword’ in K Lahiri-Dutt, & RJ Wasson (eds), Water First: Issues and
Challenges for Nations and Communities in South Asia, Sage, New Delhi, p. xiii
111 Lang, DJ, Wiek, A, Bergmann, M, Stauffacher, M, Martens, P, Moll, P, Swilling, M, & Thomas, CJ 2012, ‘Transdisciplinary research in sustainability science: practice, principles, and challenges’, Sustainability science: bridging the gap between science and society, DOI 10.1007/s11625-011-0149-x, vol. 7, no. 1, pp. 1-2
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evaluating their water governance projects or amending plans for future interventions in this problemshed. These insights may also be of use to policymakers, negotiators, and scholars interested in transboundary water interaction in other international basins and problemsheds, now and into the future.