Síntesis de Procesos Actuales

The main challenges in measuring tourism’s contribution to an economy are that most countries lack the data and information, and that tourism does not exist as a distinct sector in any system of national accounts (Ennew, 2003, p.9). Thus, an analysis of the economic impact of tourism varies according to which accounting system is used. There are various approaches to estimate the economic impact of tourism on an economy. Researchers have advocated economic multipliers, partial equilibrium and general equilibrium models for tourism impact analysis of an economy. This includes the Money Generation Model; Economic Base Model; I-O model with economic multipliers, Tourism Satellite Account; and Computable General Equilibrium Model. Some of these models are briefly discussed below.

2.1.1 Economic Base Model

Using the economic base model Archer and Owen (1972), in Wales, Gartner and Holecek (1983), in Detroit, and Gunderson and Kreag (1991), in Minnesota, estimated the economic impact of tourism. The authors estimated the ratio of total income effects to visitors’ expenditure and suggested a range of multipliers rather than one value. The economic base model can be formulated algebraically and is very similar to macroeconomic models. The employment multiplier is analogous to the Keynesian multiplier in macroeconomic models (Garter & Holecek, 1983). The model provides only a range of the multipliers’ values not the exact figure of the multipliers and does not estimate the inter-industry linkages of an economy.

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2.1.2 Tourism Satellite Accounts and Computable General Equilibrium Model

The Tourism Satellite Accounts (TSA) method is gaining attention among those concerned with measuring the contribution of tourism to national economies because it links to the existing System of National Accounts (SNA). As Smith (1997) pointed out, the term “satellite” refers to the fact that the TSA is developed as an extension, or satellite, of the I-O framework of the SNA. Thailand and China are the only countries in the GMS that follow the TSA guidelines for national accounts to estimate the tourism contribution in their countries’ economy. Lao PDR has not developed the TSA and the country’s national accounts are developed in line with I-O analysis. A complete TSA contains detailed production accounts of the tourism industry and their linkages to other industries, employment, capital formation and additional non-monetary information on tourism (Varlack, 2009). TSA model is not used in this study because Lao PDR does not follow the UNWTO guidelines for constructing satellite account. Therefore, limited data availability precludes the use of TSA method to assess the impact of tourism in Lao PDR.

There have been some developments in Lao PDR to follow and upgrade their tourism statistics in line with UNWTO recommended satellite accounts. The UNWTO organized a workshop on “Developing National Systems of Tourism Statistics: Challenges and Good Practices” in Laos, 16-19 June 2009, for building statistical capacity in the low income countries of South-East Asia (UNWTO, 2009). The workshop recommendations include:

 strengthen collaboration between the national statistical office, national tourism authority and central bank to establish and to ensure the quality of data;

 improve the legal and institutional framework for tourism statistics; and

 establish a regular programme of official statistical surveys for collecting good quality data for tourism statistics and making a strong case for their funding.

The application of the Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) and Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) models for the estimation of tourism’s impact will also be restricted with the lack of in-depth data of economic sectors in Lao PDR required for these models. In the Lao PDR, the CGE and SAM models could have been used for wider results but their computational complexity and extensive primary data requirements such as household surveys, consumption surveys, business/enterprise surveys, and institutional surveys for the study, made it difficult to estimate tourism’s economic impact in Lao PDR using these models.

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2.1.3 Partial Equilibrium Models

Partial equilibrium models in this research include the economic multiplier and I-O analyses. Economic multipliers provide a measure of the degree of interdependence between industries, for example, the interdependence between the tourism sector and different sectors in an economy. Leitch and Leistritz (1985 cited in Lin & De Guzman, 2007) revealed that the standard economic multiplier approach is the simplest and least expensive way to calculate the economic impact of tourism. The I-O model provides a statistically consistent and systematic approach to understanding the economic impact of tourism on the whole economy.

The use of the I-O model to estimate the economic impact of tourism has become increasingly popular because of its ability to provide accurate, detailed information. Wall and Mathieson (2007) reported that many economists traditionally used I-O analysis to examine the impact of tourism on the economy of regions but methods including economic multiplier analysis give additional advantages to the results. Similarly, Loomis and Walsh (1997) found that the major strength of I-O analysis is that it provides detailed information on direct, indirect and induced effects of visitors’ expenditure on all economic measures for different industries in the economy. Fletcher (1989) also asserted that the I-O model is particularly valuable for the measurement of second and further round economic effects of tourism. The chief value of I-O analysis is its descriptive analytical power (Bendavid-val, 1991).

The CGE models require extensive primary data such as household consumption survey, institutional survey, expenditure survey, business survey which our study could not afford given time and budgetary constraints. At the same time, since 1997, Lao PDR adopted the I-O tables while updating its annual national accounts. I-O models provide direct, indirect and induced impacts as well as inter-industry linkages, which could generate both primary and secondary impacts of tourism in the economy. Lao PDR national account does not recognize tourism as a distinct sector. The I-O tables of the latter years can be updated using I-O coefficients from previous year. Similarly, an economic sector can be disaggregated from the rest of the economy using the I-O table. Therefore, I-O models are the best method used in our research to estimate the economic impacts of tourism in the Lao PDR economy.