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244 See Mitra, S.K. and Carciumaru, R. (2015). Beyond the ‘Low-Level Equilibrium Trap’: Getting to a ‘Principled Negotiation’ of the Kashmir Conflict. Irish Studies in International Affairs, 26, pp. 1-24., where the authors experimented with the a very incipient idea of multilevel principled negotiation that ripened to its full-fledged form in my thesis.

245 Gurr, T.R. (2000). People versus States. Minorities at Risk in the New Century. Washington D. C.: United States Institute of Peace Press.

alleviate the concerns of the minority groups and the state in general.²⁴⁶ The literature also contains research on how endogenous and exogenous factors and actors can be used to resolve disputes. Contemporary research has also addressed the role of third-party intervention and mediation in regions that have functional internal units. The political field stands to gain if research proposes methods to create clearly-defined internal units that favor the participation of both domestic and exogenous parties towards conflict resolution. A high proportion of current research focuses on one area of analysis and overlooks the challenges that domestic and foreign parties face when managing, and if possible, preventing ethnic conflicts. The thesis acknowledges existence of the gap and seeks to address this problem through a levels-of – analysis approach that examines the comparable and integrative elements of different levels²⁴⁷. Thus, Cordell & Wolff split the two levels suggested by Singer into four. They highly recommend to perform the analysis on each level, with respect to activities and impacts of both actors and systems during the onset, duration and resolution of cultural disputes. The four levels are given below:

1. The Local (Sub-State) Level:

This is the first level, and the local leaders, economic and social activities, laws and regulations of a country among others are crucial players. The local ethnic and religious groups (and their leaders), members of the private sector, local NGOs, delinquents and rebel groups constitute the non-state actors and systems, and their operations have a significant influence on the conflict.

2. National (State) Level:

The state level is the second classification. Although all major activities at a national level may seem inconsequential to some local conflicts, they play a considerable role.

Local activities are usually a low-level manifestation or expression of nation-wide systems, and therefore, changes at a national level have the power to positively or adversely affect localized processes. Examples of these deterministic national level

246 Cf. Walter, 2002; see also Biswas 2006(a) and Biswas, B. (2006b). The Challenges of Conflict Management:

A Case Study of Sri Lanka. Civil Wars, 8(1), 46-65.

247 I am grateful to Karl Cordell and Stefan Wolff for updating & upgrading Stinger’s two levels-of-analysis approach. Cordell & Wolff’s approach is much more comprehensive and helpful a tool to examine, understand, explain and predict ethnic conflicts as well as their resolution. See Cordell, K. and Wolff, S. (2009). Ethnic conflict:

causes, consequences, and responses. Cambridge; Malden, MA: Polity.

processes include economic, political, social and cultural activities, power of the administration, threats by opposing political groups, and threats of territory invasion.

3. Regional Level:

Region is the third level of analysis. A region is made of the country in question and its neighboring states, regional international organizations (IOs), regional administrations and leaders, and accredited facilities and organizations. The region in which a county exists strongly determines the structuring of a nation’s laws and regulations, business activities, organized crime, ethnic groups and societal standards. The relationship between a country’s leaders and leaders of the neighboring countries may also influence the level of cooperation in a region, which may in turn affect the willingness of the region to maintain harmony in a given country.

4. International/Global level:

International governments are the fourth level of analysis. For instance, most national governments, especially in the developing countries, receive substantial financial aid from allied governments that exist outside the regional level. International trade is also facilitated by numerous international alliances that in most cases, fall outside the regional trading blocs. Therefore, it follows that in the similar manner that IOs and NGOs exert influence, international non-governmental organizations (INGOs) are significant non-state players. In particular, INGOs, diaspora lobbies, TNCs, international crime networks, and their respective leaders are considered as noteworthy none-state actors and systems.

In addition to performing analysis of systems and actors, it is important to examine the impact of factors that are challenging to group as to whether they arise from the system or from the actors. Some of these factors include environmental degradation, food and energy security, and (over)utilization of resources. The following tables gives an overview of the multilevel analysis.

Table 8: The levels-of-analysis approach

Exogenous and Endogenous Factors

Biswas asserts that if “uncertainty and mistrust are among the principal causes of conflict, they also form the major barriers to finding solutions.” ²⁴⁸ Thus, the factors that cause conflicts to emerge and escalate are the same factors that pose challenges in finding solutions for their resolution. In particular, exogenous and endogenous factors may determine the course of a conflict. For instance, exogenous factors may attenuate uncertainties in conflicting parties and at the same time affect the major conflicting agents, the rebels and the state. According to the rebel group’s viewpoint, a compromise may enhance the legality of the group and quite possibly reduce destruction of property and loss of lives. On the other hand, the state may view a compromise as an expensive venture and an indication of vulnerability and weakness.

Thus, for example, the minority group demands can be managed with the use of local organizations and facilities that enable the minority groups to interact with policy makers and be involved by participating actively in formulation of policies that directly affect them.

However, if a conflict occurs, the necessity of a third party mediator should not be downplayed or ignored. The third party should be impartial and seek to solve conflict through equitably treating the parties, fair approach, but also sanctions and incentives that thus facilitate negotiations. However, an impartial third party mediator is difficult to agree upon. As a result, the chances to come to the negotiating table may be hindered or even compromised. Walter indicates that in such cases, only an active external party can facilitate productive and meaningful negotiations.²⁴⁹ For example, international mediators may act as channels of communication between the opposing parties, schedule dialogs, suggest penalties for failing to honor the agreement, and similarly, rewards for honoring the contract.²⁵⁰ Moreover, Walter points out that a genuine peace agreement is difficult to structure; in her opinion, an international system overseeing power-sharing arrangement at national level and ensuring that the involved parties fully deliver on their commitments and promises is the only way through which peace agreements during civil wars and ethnic conflicts can be effectively implemented.²⁵¹

In some cases, conflicts arise due to change. Therefore, mediation should be included in every process that alters the familiar political structure of a region to ensure that all stakeholders

248 Biswas, 2006(b).

249 Walter, 2002, p. 63.

250 See Bercovitch, J. (ed.) (1994). Mediation in international relations: multiple approaches to conflict management. Basingstoke: Macmillan, in particular the Chapters: “The Structure and Diversity of Mediation in International Relations,” by Jacob Bercovitch, pp. 1-29, and “Conclusion: International Mediation in Context” by Rubin, Jeffrey Z., pp. 249-272.

251 Walter, 2002, p. 64.

recognize and acknowledge their functions. Governments of collapsed states lack the power, or authority, rather, to trigger and sustain change. The governments do not operate at a full potential and are prone to numerous weaknesses of administration: In such situations, strong international intervention compensates for the deficiency in an authoritative governing structure. Third-party interventions such as deployment of soldiers to the affected regions may also be considered, and such measures have proved to be important in facilitating dialogues between the warring parties, and as a result, adoption of genuine peace agreements. For instance, the civil wars that occurred in Bosnia, Moldova, Mizoram and Sri Lanka took place either under weak or non-institutionalized government structures or during a systemic collapse and a structural change. The Bosnian and Moldavian governments were virtually non-existent at the time of the conflict, and there was a considerable lack of administrative legality and authority. Interestingly, the conflicts in these countries were solved through active international mediation. On the other hand, third-party involvement in conflict resolution in Sri Lanka and Mizoram was not as dominant as in the Bosnian and Moldavian case, and as a result, conflicts in these countries continued to intensify.

The government has a responsibility of ensuring that it does not discriminate when delivering its promises, particularly to the minority populace. If a government is made up of democratic and resolute political parties, leaders of these parties should also see to it that the government delivers. On the other hand, a government that is biased or poorly delivers its obligations is more likely to witness more protesting groups than an effectively functioning executive. Armed rebel groups are a strong indication of a government that discriminates against its minority groups and weak institutions. In such a case, the government should acknowledge it requires international assistance, and be willing to waive its mediatory function in favor of international intervention. Collapsed states require abolition of current systems and the creation of new systems of governance. However, functioning governments that face opposition from rebel groups need only to restructure and gain control of the crisis. Similar circumstances have been evident in countries such as Sri Lanka, Mizoram and India. However, current literature fails to provide an in-depth analysis of these scenarios and thereby limits the enhancement of intervention strategies. Intervention is a cost effective conflict management tool that is most suitable in circumstances where there is no threat of loss of authority to the domestic government. Sometimes, autonomous states are affected by civil wars. In such cases, international intervention is more effective if it works in unison with the functional structures and establishments of the host government. The host government may then readily welcome mediation since the peace process does not conflict with its operationalization. According to

Biswas, “high-impact intervention” should be avoided at all costs, especially since genuine security assurances are not so particularly forthcoming.²⁵²

II.3 Conclusion: Towards a Comprehensive Power-Sharing Based Model of