CAPITULO 4. Propuesta de un sistema de seguimiento orientado a resultados y conducente a evaluación
4.1.2. Seguimiento sobre sus Másteres Oficiales.
As renewable energy capacity grows, particularly that associated with intermittent sources (e.g., solar, wind), curtailment of these sources will present increasing challenges. This is particularly true in the hydropower-dominated Pacific Northwest region of the U.S., where wind energy curtailment occurs, typically during very wet years when hydropower is plentiful. This study demonstrates that a systems-based hydro-economic model can be used to characterize the physical (spilling, wind curtailment) and financial consequences of oversupply events, while also providing insights on potential future scenarios that include variable electricity prices, increased wind capacity and additional transmission capacity. From a general perspective, this approach can provide a foundation for developing strategies that mitigate a renewable generator’s financial risk or be used by planners to make more informed decisions on future infrastructure investments.
With respect to the Columbia basin in particular, results from this study indicate that wind curtailment as a result of oversupply can lead to a significant squandering of energy production and financial losses. Results also suggest that the growth of wind power capacity will lead to higher and more unpredictable oversupply-related financial losses. However, we find that the electricity price assumed has a significant effect on estimates of oversupply losses, and future deviations from current (i.e. low) prices could significantly increase the maximum annual loss. However, given projections for natural gas prices to remain fairly low over the next decade, the impacts of much higher electricity prices on oversupply losses may not be a significant risk.
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Results also suggest that, while additional transmission capacity could mitigate a significant portion of oversupply-related losses, these avoided losses are unlikely to justify the substantial cost of developing this infrastructure. Consequently, curtailment of wind power during oversupply conditions appears to be a more cost effective solution than new transmission capacity, at least for the foreseeable future.
Given expectations of continued growth in renewable energy capacity, we can expect that renewable curtailment will happen more often while imposing ever larger financial losses. Despite the associated energy waste and financial losses, these results suggest that curtailment can be considered a practical short- to medium-term solution to manage electrical grid stability in the face of oversupply in settings such as BPA. However, this study does not consider other economic value of building transmission infrastructure, such as reduced carbon emission and reduced fuel cost in a thermal dominated system. Such thermal dominated regions in the U.S. are actively building addition transmission line for more renewable integration partially because of these additional economic values.
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APPENDIX : TABLE OF ALL THE DAMS IN BPA SYSTEM
Table 1 List of all modelled and un-modelled hydro dams (Note: Red font is the dams that are NOT included in the model)
List of hydro by BPA Capacity Modelled Hydro but Not
Included in BPA’s list Capacity
Albeni Falls 42 MW Mica 1805 MW
Big Cliff 18 MW Arrow 185 MW
Big Fork Generation 4.15 MW Duncan 0 MW
Bonneville 1189 MW Corra Linn 49 MW
Carmen 114 MW Kerr 194 MW
Chandler 12 MW Post Fall 14.75 MW
Chief Joseph 2620 MW Chelan 59.2 MW
Cougar 25 MW Brownlee 585.4 MW
Cowlitz Falls 70 MW Noxon 488 MW
Detroit 100 MW Round Butte 367 MW
Dexter 15 MW Revelstoke Dam 2480 MW
Dworshak 400 MW Seven Mile 848 MW
Dworshak
Clearwater Hatchery
N/A Brilliant 265 MW
Foster 20 MW Thompson Fall 94 MW
Grand Coulee 7079 MW Cabinet Gorge 230 MW
Green Peter 80 MW Box Canyon 69 MW
Green Springs 17 MW Boundary 1070 MW
Henry Jackson 111.8 MW Waneta 450 MW
Hills Creek 30 MW Upper Fall 10 MW
Hungry Horse 428 MW Monroe Street 15 MW
Ice Harbor 693 MW Nine Mile 26 MW
John Day 2160 MW Long Lake 71MW
Lake Creek N/A Little Fall 36 MW
Leaburg 25 MW Wells 851.4 MW
Libby 600 MW Rocky Reach 1299.6 MW
Little Goose 932 MW Rock Island 623.7 MW
Lost Creek 49 MW Wanapum 1040 MW
Lower Granite 810 MW Priest Rapids 955.6 MW
Lookout Point 120 MW Oxbow 190 MW
Lower Monumental 932 MW Hells Canyon 391 MW
McNary 1127 MW Pelton 110 MW
McNary Fishway 10 MW Priest Lake 380 MW
Middle Fork N/A Bonners Ferry 4 MW
Packwood 27.5 MW
Roza 12 MW
Smith Creek 38 MW
The Dalles 1779.8 MW
The Dalles Fishway 4.9 MW
Trail Bridge 10 MW
Walterville 25 MW
Yakima Drop Plant 3.4 MW
Summary:
Total BPA hydro capacity: 21733.55 MW
Modelled BPA hydro capacity: 19012 MW Un-modelled BPA capacity: 2721.55 MW
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