Sensor de oxígeno

Risk Scores:

2012 Energy Security Risk Score 928 2012 Large Energy User Group Rank 2

Score in Previous Year 1,015

Rank in Previous Year 2

Score in 1980 709

Average Score: 1980-2012 710

Best Energy Security Risk Score ₍₁₉₉₄₎623 Worst Energy Security Risk Score ₍₂₀₁₁₎1,015

Risk Scores Relative to OECD Average:

Average Annual Difference 1980-2012 -19%

Best Relative Score ₍₁₉₈₀₎-29%

Worst Relative Score ₍₂₀₁₁₎-10%

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 25 24 23 22 21 20 19 18 17 16 15 14 13 12 11 109 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1

Mexico: Risk Ranking

-35 -30 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Mexico OECD Average Per cent

Mexico: Risk Variance from oECD

500 600 700 800 900 1000 1100 1200 _Mexico OECD Average 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Risk Inde x Scor e

Mexico vs. oECD: Risk Index scores

Except for a few years in the early 2000s, Mexico’s energy security since 1980 ranked first or second in the large energy user group, and with a score of 928 was number two in 2012. Mexico’s 2012 energy security risk score, however, is much higher (219 points) than its 1980 score, and it risks are increasing at a faster rate than for the OECD as a whole. As a result, Mexico’s relatively strong position is shrinking: From a 1980 score 29% better than the OECD average, its score in 2012 was just 12% better.

Mexico scores well primarily because of its comparatively good fossil fuel import, energy

expenditure, and per capita energy use scores. Mexico has a large domestic energy sector, focused primarily on oil. Oil production levels are declining, however. Output from Cantarell, Mexico’s largest oil field located off Mexico’s southeastern coast, has fallen sharply in recent years, and increases from other fields have not been enough to offset this decline, resulting in a 25% reduction in oil output over the past decade. The State-owned oil company Petroleos Mexicanos (Pemex), nationalized in 1938, is one of the world’s largest, and under the Mexican constitution, it is granted what amounts to a monopoly on the exploration, processing, and sale of petroleum. Not wanting to be left behind the boom in oil production occurring in the United States and Canada, the Mexican government recently moved to modernize its oil sector by amending its constitution to give private energy companies a share in oil production and licenses. The move is designed to attract investment in shale deposits and ultra-deep water oil, in particular, and could potentially open up vast untapped oil and natural gas reserves and reverse the slide in Mexican output. Mexico has very large reserves of natural gas, and it is a fairly large producer of natural gas, but many reserves remain untapped. Since 1989, natural gas imports have had to supplement domestic supplies and meet demand. Mexican imports of U.S. natural gas have nearly doubled since 2008 and could conceivably take 10% of U.S. production. Mexico is reportedly planning about 5,450 miles of new gas pipelines across the country, most of which will be focused on accessing U.S. shale gas. Moreover, with LNG terminals on both the Gulf and Pacific coasts, Mexico now imports LNG

from as far afield as Indonesia, Nigeria, Peru, Yemen, and elsewhere. Mexico also produces modest amounts of coal but has been a net importer of this fuel over the entire 31-period.

Mexico has potentially large shale oil and natural gas resources. EIA estimates Mexico’s shale gas resource at 545 trillion cubic feet, comparable to EIA’s U.S. estimate, and its shale oil resource at 13.1 billion barrels of crude oil, an amount about 30% higher than its proved reserves. Moves to loosen restrictions on foreign investment were triggered in part by a desire to bring into the country the expertise to tap these resources. Mexico’s power sector has become increasingly diverse. Thermal power plants dominate, in particular natural gas plants. Over the past decade or so, Mexico has been backing out oil-fired generators and replacing them mainly with natural gas. The country also employs coal, hydroelectric power, and one nuclear reactor.

Mexico enjoys a clear comparative advantage in those metrics measuring the costs of energy. The amount it spends on fuel imports per dollar of GDP generated is well below the OECD average. Moreover, its energy expenditures per dollar of GDP and per capita are lower, as are its costs for electricity.

The amount of energy each person uses, both overall and in the transport sector, and the amount of carbon dioxide each person emits also is less than the OECD average. The spread between the Mexican and OECD per capita consumption, however, has been narrowing over the last decade or so. As Mexico continues to grow and develop and its middle class expands, this difference should narrow even further. Mexico also scores comparatively worse in those aspects related to energy intensity and emissions intensity. One exception to this may be petroleum intensity. With oil being removed from the power sector, this metric is expected to continue to improve at a faster rate than that for the OECD average.

Energy security Risk summary: