SUPERSTICIONES, HISTORIAS Y CREENCIAS SOBRE LOS ESPEJOS

To more fully assess the ban’s effects on gun markets, examination of pre and post-ban trends in production of AWs and legal AW substitutes is a useful complement to studying price trends. Our earlier work revealed a spike in AW production during 1994 as the ban was being debated. Post-ban production of legal AW substitutes should reveal additional information about the reaction of gun markets to the ban. If production of these models has fallen off dramatically, it may suggest that the market for AWs has been temporarily saturated and/or that consumers of AWs favor the original AW models that have more military-style features. Stable or rising production levels, on the other hand, may indicate substantial consumer demand for AW substitutes, which would suggest that consumers consider the legal substitute models to be as desirable as the banned models.

5.2.1. Production of Assault Pistols and Other Handguns

Figure 5-3 presents production trends for a number of domestic AP manufacturers from 1985 through 2001 (the most recent year available for data on individual manufacturers).33 After rising in the early 1990s and surging notably to a peak in 1994, production by these companies dropped off dramatically, falling 80% from 1993-1994 to 1996-1997 and falling another 35% by 1999-2000 (Table 5-3).34 Makers of Intratec and SWD-type APs continued manufacturing modified versions of their APs for at least a few years following the ban, but at much lower volumes than that at which they produced APs just prior to the ban. Companies like AA Arms and Calico produced very few or no AP-type pistols from 1995 onward, and Intratec – producers of the APs most frequently used in crime – went out of business after 1999.

However, the pattern of rising and then falling production was not entirely unique to APs. Table 5-3 shows that production of all handguns and production of SNS-type pistols both

declined sharply in the mid to late 1990s following a peak in 1993. Nonetheless, the trends –

32

We attributed those short-term fluctuations to pre-ban uncertainty regarding which semiautomatic rifles would be prohibited by the ban. Also note that the prior findings were based on a different set of comparison semiautomatic rifles that included a number of foreign rifles. We concentrated on domestically produced rifles for this updated analysis in order to make more explicit links between rifle price and production trends (data for the latter are available only for domestic firearms).

33

Production figures for individual manufacturers through 2000 have been compiled by the Violence Policy Center (2002). Year 2001 data are available from ATF via the Internet (see www.atf.treas.gov). National gun production totals through 1998 are also available from ATF (2000, p. A-3).

34

The assault pistol production figures used here and in the price analysis include 9mm and .22 caliber pistols made by Intratec, 9mm pistols manufactured by AA Arms, all non-.22 caliber pistols manufactured by S.W. Daniels, Wayne Daniels, and Military Armaments Corporation (which together constitute the SWD group), and .22 and 9mm pistols manufactured by Calico. Intratec produces a few non-AW models in .22 and 9mm calibers, so the Intratec figures will overstate production of assault pistols and their legal substitutes to some degree. The comparison, SNS production figures are based on all handguns produced by Lorcin Engineering and Davis Industries.

both peak and decline – were more dramatic for APs than for other handguns. Production of APs rose 69% from 1990-1991 to 1993-1994, while SNS production and overall handgun production each increased 47%. From 1993-1994 to 1996-1997, production of AP-type handguns, SNS models, and all handguns declined 80%, 66%, and 47%, respectively. Further, production of AP-type handguns continued to decline at a faster rate than that of other handguns through the end of the decade.35

Figure 5-3. Assault Pistol Production, 1985-2001

0 20000 40000 60000 80000 100000 120000 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

Intratec SWD Calico AA Arms

35

Lorcin, a prominent SNS brand that we examined for the price and production analyses, went out of business after 1998. Unlike the situation in the AP market (where, to our knowledge, former AP makers have not been replaced on any large scale), the SNS market appears to have compensated somewhat to offset the loss of Lorcin. The SNS change from 1996-1997 to 1999-2000 is based on examination of a larger group of SNS-type makers, including Lorcin, Davis, Bryco, Phoenix Arms, and Hi-Point. Production among this group declined by 22% from 1996-1997 to 1999-2000, a decline greater than that for total handgun production but less than that for AP-type production.

Table 5-3. Production Trends for Assault Weapons and Other Firearms, 1990-2000*

Firearm Category % Change

1990/91 to 1993/94 % Change 1993/94 to 1996/97 % Change 1996/97 to 1999/2000 Total Handguns 47% -47% -10% Assault Pistols (or Post-Ban Models) 69% -80% -35% SNS Handguns 47% -66% -22% Total Rifles 22% 8% 18% Assault Rifles (or Post-Ban Models) 81% -51% 156% Comparison Rifles 15% 13% -16%

* Total handgun and rifle figures include all production by U.S. manufacturers. Assault pistols include Intratec group, SWD group, and Calico models. SNS figures are based on Lorcin Engineering and Davis Industries for changes up through 1996-1997. Because Lorcin went out of business after 1998, the SNS change from 1996-1997 to 1999-2000 is based on a larger group of SNS makers including Lorcin, Davis, Bryco, Phoenix Arms, and Hi-Point. Assault rifles include AR-15 type models by Colt and others. Comparison rifles include Sturm Ruger, Remington, and Marlin.

5.2.2. Production of Assault Rifles and Other Rifles

As shown in Figure 5-4, production of AR-15 type rifles surged during the early 1990s, reaching a peak in 1994.36 AR production during the early 1990s rose almost 4 times faster than total rifle production and over 5 times faster than production of the comparison rifles examined in the price analysis (Table 5-3). Yet, by 1996 and 1997, production of legalized AR-type rifles had fallen by 51%, as production of other rifles continued increasing. AR production trends reversed again during the late 1990s, however, rising over 150%.37 Total rifle production increased much more modestly during this time (18%), while production of the comparison rifles declined.

36

Note again that the AR and legalized AR production figures are approximations based on all rifles produced by the companies in question (rifle production data are not available by type, caliber, or model), but it appears that most rifles made by these companies during the study period were AR-type rifles. Also, the figures for the comparison rifle companies (Ruger, Marlin, and Remington) are based on all rifles produced by these companies (the price analysis focused on selected semiautomatic models). 37

There was also a notable shift in market shares among AR makers, as Bushmaster overtook Colt as the leading producer of AR-15 type rifles (Figure 5-4).

Figure 5-4. Assault Rifle Production, 1986-2001 (AR-15 Type) 0 20000 40000 60000 80000 100000 120000 140000 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

Colt AR Bushmaster Other Total

Other: Olympic, Eagle/Armalite, DPMS, Essential Arms, Sendra.