This chapter has reviewed the conceptual and theoretical discussions in the conventional studies on negotiation and intervention, defined the core concepts to be used in this thesis, and has critically applied them to and adopted them in the framework and methodology of this research.
First, this chapter clarified how this thesis defines the following concepts: civil war, peace negotiation, interplay, and third-party intervention. Owing to the internal diversity of the concept, this thesis employs a minimalist definition of civil war: a type of violent conflict
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conducted mainly within a state’s territory and initiated by domestic factions. Using the concepts of game theory, this research restricts the definition of peace negotiation to ‘a strategic compromise between the actors in adversarial relations, which takes place to
terminate violent conflicts.’ Moreover, this thesis narrows down the meaning of interplay by focusing only on the exchange of strategic moves that the actors intentionally make. Finally, this thesis defines third-party intervention as ‘the military, economic and diplomatic efforts of external parties which aim at a pacific accommodation in a violent conflict’, and
interventions that do not pursue a balance of power between the warring national factions will be considered a ‘meddling’. These definitions and categorisations will be applied in
formulating the basic analytical framework for this research and in generalising the findings of the case studies. Specifically, the definitions delineate the boundary of the analytic framework used in this research.
Second, it has also examined the various theoretical discourses on peace negotiation in terms of the ongoing debate between two different traditions – positivism and non-positivism – that emphasise different aspects of human perception: rationality and cultural diversity. With regard to the rationality assumption inherent to positivism, the discourse on the conditions for successful negotiation, game theories, timing for conflict resolution, and two-level game were reviewed. As regards the non-positivist discussions, the perceptual issues in peace negotiation, such as bounded awareness and the role of ethnocentric culture, were discussed.
In applying these theories to the case studies, this thesis employs a mixture of both traditions. The theories based on the assumption of rationality provide the fundamental analytical framework for this research. Thus, this thesis assumes that the negotiating actors decide upon their next move by weighing their options against their fundamental goals. The principles of game theory are applied in conceptualising the anticipated dynamics of the interplay between
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the external interveners and the national factions, and its assumptions, such as the actors’ rational choice, ripeness, and zero-sum and two-level games, are all employed in the analysis of the case studies.
By adopting non-positivist ideas, this thesis intends to supplement the shortcomings in the positivist theories. Specifically, it acknowledges the importance of the actors’ cultural values and imperfect information. In other words, rather than assuming that the actors are
completely rational, it emphasises the cultural aspects of conflict and pays particular attention to the examination of the motives and goals of parties. Although the national factions are rational in their decision making, the issues that are of most concern to them when making their decisions may be strikingly different from what the external actors assume them to be. Moreover, in rejecting the perfect information assumption, this thesis recognises that the parties in military conflicts have a serious information deficit and therefore face significant obstacles to achieving effective communication with other actors or within the party.
Third, the academic discourse on the typologies of third-party interveners and their methods of intervention has been discussed. Traditionally, states, including regional hegemons, former colonial/ideological powers and concerned neighbours, have been the crucial actors in third- party intervention. However, the role of international organisations such as the UN, the World Bank and the IMF has become much more prominent in the post-Cold War era. Sub-state actors such as NGOs and individuals also contribute to the success of international intervention.
The methods of intervention have been discussed on the basis of two criteria for categorisation: strength and form. On the one hand, the methods were divided into two groups based on strength: light intervention and heavy intervention. Among them, stage setting, building the negotiation rules, suggesting the contents of negotiation, and
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transmission of information, diplomatic tactics are regarded as ‘light intervention’ methods in that they do not coerce warring factions. By contrast, this thesis regards the methods that ‘push-and-pull’ the opposing factions, before and during the negotiations, as ‘heavy intervention’ tactics. These heavy intervention tactics have two dimensions: economy and security.
On the other hand, the intervention methods have been categorised into three types according to their forms: process control includes the interventions that aim at encouraging warring factions to negotiate by eliminating procedural barriers for talks; content control refers to the third-parties’ proposals or suggestions on the topics under negotiation; and motivation control indicates the intervention methods that convince national factions to talk to each other by applying incentives or coercion. Finally, the arguments in previous studies on the contribution of the impartiality and strength of interveners to successful third-party intervention were summarised.
Based on these definitions, theories, and typologies, Chapter 3 conceptualises the research framework and methodologies. After a brief overview of the analytical framework, it presents the key questions and core variables that affect the actors’ decisions. It also presents the main research methodologies used in this thesis, and in addition to the theoretical background that this thesis relies upon, it reveals the specific research methods used and practical information about the fieldwork.
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