Técnicas de control de flujo

We know from the 2008/2009 global food price crisis that food security and the experience of hunger increased in SA over this period. The current context is somewhat different to the global crisis of 2008/2009. The recent global crisis was caused by a number of global events that led to a global food shortage at the same time as fuel prices increased sharply and biofuels changed the dynamics of maize markets (Hen- driks et al., 2016, unpublished draft paper). The 2016 maize shortages in SA were caused by an extreme covariate shock that came at a time when international food prices were the lowest since 2008 but with an exceptionally weak rand at the time. The South African Futures Exchange (SAFEX) prices for white maize rose from a low of R1700/t in August 2014 to an average of about R3000/t a year later, and then rose sharply from November 2015 to over R5000/t in January 2016 (Hendriks et al., 2016, unpublished draft paper).

Kubik (2018) outlines how climate affects food access:

if weather shocks translate into food price shocks which, in turn, adversely affect food security, then the ongoing climate change should be considered as an important risk. This

extends beyond subsistence households relying on own food production, as commonly assumed in the literature, but also, to net food buyers. This question has been addressed mainly in the macroeconomic setting; (with) evidence that rainfall volatility is a factor of food insecurity particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, and that this adverse effect of weather shocks is exacerbated for countries that are vulnerable to food price shocks. [Various sources] predict that as a result of climate change and consecutive price increases, caloric intake in Africa will decrease while the number of malnourished children will increase. … Weather shocks have been associated with lower child growth … malnutrition … and nutrient deficiencies in pregnant women.

(Kubik, 2018) This author also shows how weather shocks are linked to food price shocks:

findings suggest that food prices have a significant negative impact on household food security, i.e. a 1% increase in local food prices induced by a weather shock decreases the number of food items consumed by a household by around 2.5%, and the number of food groups by almost 1%. In line with expectations, the low-income households are particularly vulnerable to weather and price shocks; however, their response to shocks seems to depend on the level of poverty.

(Kubik, 2018) The DDS would thus decrease with weather shocks and food price shocks.

SA is a small player in the global agricul- tural industry and fluctuations of world prices are therefore key determinants of what happens in the local market. Important international fac- tors included a slowdown in the Chinese econ- omy, favourable production conditions in the current season and rising stock levels, and these contributed to downward pressure on food prices. According to household-level expend- iture data, the most popular staple food options (i.e. largest expenditure) among marginalized and lower middle-income consumers (in order of importance) are maize meal, brown bread, rice, white bread and potatoes, representing about 80–85% of these consumers’ expenditure on starchy foods (Table 7.1).

According to the National Food Consump- tion Survey of 2005 (Hendriks et al., 2016,

unpublished draft paper), the most important staple food options among individuals aged 10 and older are maize porridge, brown bread, white bread, potato and rice (in order of im- portance) (Table 7.2). This is the most recent available data, as there has been no national consumption survey since.

Understanding portion and serving sizes of staple foods is important when predicting the adequacy of the food supply. In 2015 por- tions based on the latest available scientific information for the SA context were defined as: maize meal (100 g raw), potato (70 g raw), rice (140 g cooked, 70 g raw), pasta (85 g raw) and brown or white bread (70 g = two slices). In general two portions of a commodity equal a serving (Hendriks et al., 2016, unpublished draft paper).

According to the analysis the most afford- able staple foods are maize meal, potatoes and rice, followed by brown bread. The portion cost

of maize meal has been moving closer to the portion cost of potatoes and rice from about mid- 2011. Comparing the portion cost of brown bread (being the second most important staple food in SA) with the portion cost of maize meal it is evident that a brown bread portion was around 90% more expensive than amaize meal portion during the period mid-2008 to about mid-2011. However, this ratio has now dropped to around 70% – thus indicating an improvement of the relative affordability of a brown bread portion relative to a maize meal portion, as maize prices rose. In April 2015, the cost of a portion of maize meal was already about R0.75, compared to R1.31 for a portion of brown bread. It should be kept in mind that brown bread has a significant convenience appeal (being ready to eat) and thus saves energy costs and time for the consumer. In April 2016, bread prices increased by 40 cents; this is on top of the 12.7% increase in bread and cereal prices since 2015 due to the drought (Hendriks et al., 2016, unpublished draft paper).

Potato production has decreased drastically since September 2015 due to the drought and prices doubled between December 2015 and March 2016, described as the highest ever increase in prices. This should be seen against the record plunge of the rand against the dollar, boosting the estimated 7 million t of grains to be imported to make up for the losses due to the drought (Hendriks et al., 2016, unpublished draft paper). The cost of imports of maize, both for staple food and for animal feed, places further pressure on the system.

Food prices and affordability are critical considerations for most consumers in SA. They impact on household food choices and subse- quently on aspects such as food insecurity (un- dernutrition) and obesity. The recent drought Table 7.1. Dominant staple foods in South Africa

according to the StatsSA Income and Expenditure Survey 2010/2011. (From StatsSA, 2012.)

Staple food type

Share contribution of food type to total expenditure on starchy food category Marginalized consumers (%) Lower middle-income consumers (%) Maize meal 30.8 27.5 Brown bread 23.2 20.0 Rice 13.2 14.6 White bread 9.6 10.5 Potatoes 8.4 8.2

Table 7.2. Dominant staple foods in South Africa according to the National Food Consumption Survey of 2005. (From Hendriks et al., 2016, unpublished draft paper.)

Staple food type

Percentage of group consuming the item (%) Average consumption of those consuming item (g/person/day) Average consumption per capita (g/person/day)

Maize porridge and dishes 77.9 848.3 660.7

Brown bread and rolls 55.1 164.7 90.8

White bread and rolls 28.1 161.6 45.5

Potato, cooked 17.1 165.1 28.2

has also seen increases in the prices and avail- ability of many fruits and vegetables.

The Current Household Food