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Table 1: In search for “Germany”. Trade across Central Europe, 1885-1933, (PPML, dep. var.: trade, z-stat in parentheses, Robust Standard Errors and Covariance, bold letters indicate significance at 10% or better)
Central Europe Central Europe, nonlinear distance
Central Europe, German borders (1)
Central Europe, German borders (2)
Germany, internal borders (1)
Germany, internal borders (2) Constant 19.763 (37.030) 19.335 (36.383) 18.981 (34.697) 18.097 (25.782) 19.730 (27.529) 21.714 (29.399)
Reich_in - - 0.725 (2.485) 1.613 (3.073) -
-Administrative borders -0.282 (-4.035) -0.372 (-5.358) -0.348 (-4.956) -0.329 (-4.489) -0.307 (-3.429) -0.221 (-2.501)
Zollverein34_in - - - - - -1.266 (-7.811)
Language_diff -0.766 (-4.954) -0.641 (-4.181) -0.240 (-1.083) 0.354 (0.784) -
-Language_diff X Reich - - - -0.645 (-1.147) -0.700 (-1.862) -0.372 (-1.007)
Religious_diff 0.045 (0.366) -0.089 (-0.731) -0.170 (-1.342) -0.436 (-1.750) -
-Religious_diff X Reich - - - 0.288 (0.985) -0.144 (-0.794) -0.199 (-1.151)
Natural_Geog -1.064 (-15.122) -0.953 (-13.533) -0.937 (-13.290) -1.557 (-8.081) -
-Natural_Geog X Reich - - - 0.703 (3.461) -0.877 (-9.655) -0.792 (-9.036)
Height_diff 0.035 (2.019) 0.024 (1.393) 0.018 (1.060) 0.137 (2.748) -
-Height_diff X Reich - - - -0.127 (-2.483) -0.021 (-0.959) -0.048 (-2.202)
Log(distance) -1.603 (-30.495) -1.473 (-27.544) -1.467 (-27.415) -1.470 (-27.061) -1.341 (-18.922) -1.481 (-20.663)
Log(distance)_median - -0.186 (-7.865) -0.188 (-7.888) -0.183 (-7.536) -0.179 (-4.808) -0.176 (-4.872)
Controls at 1000, 1500 Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Time-varying Imp and Exp Dummies
Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Time/ commodity/
transport Dummies
Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Adj R2 (LR-index) 0.503 (0.767) 0.503 (0.770) 0.504 (0.770) 0.504 (0.770) 0.529 (0.770) 0.529 (0.770)
No. of Obs. 39970 39970 39970 39970 18422 18422
Table 2: Towards German Unification? Trade across Central Europe, 1885-1933, (PPML, dep. var.: trade, z-stat in parentheses, Robust Standard Errors and Covariance, bold letters indicate significance at 10% or better)
Period Central Europe,
German borders (1)
Central Europe, German borders (2)
Germany, internal borders
Germany, 1925 vs. 1933
Constant 19.039 (28.120) 17.793 (19.128) 19.769 (24.304) 19.769 (24.457)
1885-1913 -0.248 (-0.591) 1.168 (1.532) -
-Reich_in
1925-1933 1.460 (3.632) 2.261 (2.876) -
-1885-1913 -0.536 (-5.006) -0.455 (-4.084) -0.392 (-2.837) -0.392 (-2.855)
1925-1933 -0.226 (-2.395) -0.247 (-2.494) -0.248 (-2.129)
-1925 - - - -0.262 (-1.856)
Administrative borders
1933 - - - -0.237 (-1.165)
1885-1913 -0.678 (-2.133) 0.236 (0.363) -
-Language_diff
1925-1933 0.079 (0.244) 0.595 (0.850) -
-1885-1913 - -1.196 (-1.488) -1.466 (-2.631) -1.466 (-2.648)
1925-1933 - -0.454 (-0.526) -0.152 (-0.304)
-1925 - - - -0.140 (-0.241)
Language_diff X Reich
1933 - - - 0.215 (0.213)
1885-1913 -0.008 (-0.039) -0.883 (-2.466) -
-Religious_diff
1925-1933 -0.279 (-1.667) -0.004 (-0.011) -
-1885-1913 - 1.256 (2.888) 0.453 (1.508) 0.453 (1.517)
1925-1933 - -0.451 (-1.102) -0.485 (-1.645)
-1925 - - - -0.682 (-2.473)
Religious_diff X Reich
1933 - - - -0.012 (-0.031)
Table 2 (continued)
1885-1913 -1.110 (-9.580) -1.222 (-4.186) -
-Natural_Geog
1925-1933 -0.807 (-8.920) -1.764 (-6.631) -
-1885-1913 - 0.034 (0.108) -1.127 (-7.319) -1.127 (-7.366)
1925-1933 - 1.126 (4.059) -0.725 (-6.452)
-1925 - - - -0.722 (-5.363)
Natural_Geog X Reich
1933 - - - -0.754 (-3.746)
1885-1913 0.043 (1.576) 0.243 (2.989) -
-Height_diff
1925-1933 0.006 (0.278) 0.083 (1.295) -
-1885-1913 - -0.222 (-2.657) -0.007 (-0.207) -0.007 (-0.208)
1925-1933 - -0.081 (-1.223) -0.031 (-1.107)
-1925 - - - -0.053 (-1.541)
Height_diff X Reich
1933 - - - 0.012 (0.236)
1885-1913 -1.336 (-16.445) -1.364 (-16.484) -1.356 (-12.350) -1.356 (-12.427)
1925-1933 -1.569 (-21.768) -1.547 (-21.089) -1.330 (-14.479)
-1925 - - - -1.259 (-11.305)
Log(distance)
1933 - - - -1.472 (-9.187)
1885-1913 -0.229 (-6.029) -0.229 (-5.766) -0.220 (-3.231) -0.220 (-3.251)
1925-1933 -0.159 (-5.157) -0.156 (-4.931) -0.158 (-3.549)
-1925 - - - -0.150 (-2.871)
Log(distance)_median
1933 - - - -0.184 (-2.168)
Var. Imp/ Exp Dummies Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Time/ comm./ transport Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Adj R2 (LR-index) 0.505 (0.770) 0.506 (0.771) 0.506 (0.771) 0.530 (0.767) 0.530 (0.768)
No. of Obs. 39970 39970 18422 18422 18422
Table 3: Differences across modes of transport and commodity groups, Germany, 1885-1933, (PPML, dep. var.: trade, z-stat in parentheses, Robust Standard Errors and Covariance, bold letters indicate significance at 10% or better)
Period Germany,
railways only
Germany, Hard Coal
Germany, Brown Coal
Germany, Iron and Steel Products
Constant 20.878 (33.685) 22.745 (12.770) 19.399 (0.015) 19.546 (29.662)
1885-1913 -0.294 (-2.650) -1.294 (-4.447) -0.771 (0.167) -0.625 (-4.555) Administrative borders
1925-1933 0.013 (0.132) -0.640 (-2.593) 0.144 (0.015) -0.347 (-2.814)
1885-1913 -1.715 (-3.861) -2.724 (-2.098) -2.429 (0.001) 0.041 (0.097) Language_diff X Reich
1925-1933 -0.326 (-0.784) -2.115 (-1.958) -1.785 (0.075) -0.496 (-0.963)
1885-1913 0.847 (3.574) 1.720 (2.516) -2.153 (0.157) -0.263 (-1.012)
Religious_diff X Reich
1925-1933 -0.273 (-1.501) 0.118 (0.270) -0.746 (0.156) -0.445 (-0.949) 1885-1913 -0.943 (-7.717) -1.809 (-4.908) -0.314 (0.685) -0.678 (-4.097) Natural_Geog X Reich
1925-1933 -0.243 (-2.642) -0.568 (-3.487) -0.769 (0.410) -0.498 (-3.662)
1885-1913 -0.027 (-0.996) 0.259 (3.217) 0.140 (0.001) -0.032 (-1.031)
Height_diff X Reich
1925-1933 -0.063 (-2.779) 0.041 (0.803) -0.117 (0.240) -0.037 (-1.345) 1885-1913 -1.564 (-17.551) -1.859 (-7.340) -2.148 (0.356) -1.036 (-10.590) Log(distance)
1925-1933 -1.651 (-21.495) -1.869 (-9.380) -1.516 (0.958) -1.091 (-11.383) 1885-1913 -0.215 (-3.824) -0.340 (-2.434) -0.617 (0.657) -0.210 (-5.326) Log(distance)_median
1925-1933 -0.122 (-3.379) -0.162 (-2.793) -0.234 (0.465) -0.118 (-2.878)
Var. Imp/ Exp Dummies Yes Yes Yes Yes
Time/ comm./ transport Yes (w/o transport) Yes Yes Yes
Adj R2 (LR-index) 0.564 (0.817) 0.898 (0.914) 0.767 (0.729) 0.958 (0.940)
No. of Obs. 10544 3071 3071 3070
Table 3 (continued)
Period Germany,
Chemical Products
Germany, Paper and Cardboard
Germany, Rye
Constant 18.448 (8.253) 21.004 (36.626) 23.318 (11.502)
1885-1913 -0.288 (-1.831) -0.078 (-0.723) -0.412 (-1.073) Administrative borders
1925-1933 -0.223 (-1.162) -0.119 (-0.910) -0.770 (-1.282) 1885-1913 -0.309 (-0.168) -0.144 (-0.251) -1.283 (-0.861) Language_diff X Reich
1925-1933 -0.147 (-0.139) -0.097 (-0.135) -0.052 (-0.042) 1885-1913 -1.548 (-2.094) -0.396 (-1.733) -0.899 (-0.708) Religious_diff X Reich
1925-1933 -2.058 (-5.842) -0.677 (-2.560) -1.156 (-1.332) 1885-1913 -0.792 (-2.398) -0.730 (-6.168) -1.727 (-2.322) Natural_Geog X Reich
1925-1933 -0.317 (-1.860) -0.744 (-5.707) -1.614 (-3.619) 1885-1913 0.066 (0.744) -0.014 (-0.548) -0.152 (-1.428) Height_diff X Reich
1925-1933 0.013 (0.258) -0.002 (-0.083) 0.046 (0.590)
1885-1913 -1.121 (-4.034) -1.244 (-15.038) -1.795 (-5.006) Log(distance)
1925-1933 -1.301 (-8.302) -1.021 (-10.372) -2.086 (-7.339) 1885-1913 -0.201 (-0.943) -0.172 (-3.226) -0.514 (-0.816) Log(distance)_median
1925-1933 -0.110 (-1.243) -0.092 (-1.858) 0.038 (0.286)
Var. Imp/ Exp Dummies Yes Yes Yes
Time/ comm./ transport Yes Yes Yes
Adj R2 (LR-index) 0.935 (0.927) 0.878 (0.849) 0.943 (0.896)
No. of Obs. 3070 3070 3070
Table 4: Commodity-specific tariff equivalents, Germany, 1885-1933 (based on table 3)
1885-1913 1925-1933
Hard Coal 95% 68%
Brown Coal -
-Iron and Steel Products 36% 22%
Chemical Products 68% 66%
Paper and Cardboard 30% 38%
Rye 63% 58%
Table 5: Factual and Counterfactual German Borders, 1885-1933, (PPML, dep. var.: trade, z-stat in parentheses, Robust Standard Errors and Covariance, bold letters indicate significance at 10% or better)
Period Germany,
Constant 19.769 (24.305) 20.035 (22.736) 19.141 (19.596)
1885-1913 -0.392 (-2.837) -0.415 (-2.695) -0.335 (-1.809) Administrative borders
1925-1933 -0.248 (-2.129) -0.238 (-1.909) -0.233 (-1.583) 1885-1913 -1.466 (-2.631) -0.744 (-1.012) 2.979 (1.294) Language_diff
1925-1933 -0.152 (-0.304) -0.303 (-0.496) 0.676 (0.355)
1885-1913 0.453 (1.508) 0.594 (1.576) 0.559 (1.489)
Religious_diff
1925-1933 -0.485 (-1.645) -0.424 (-1.430) -0.522 (-1.563) 1885-1913 -1.127 (-7.319) -1.111 (-6.667) -1.118 (-5.715) Natural_Geog
1925-1933 -0.725 (-6.452) -0.724 (-6.013) -0.743 (-4.875) 1885-1913 -0.007 (-0.207) -0.006 (-0.153) -0.033 (-0.682) Height_diff
1925-1933 -0.031 (-1.107) -0.031 (-1.034) -0.030 (-0.815) 1885-1913 -1.356 (-12.350) -1.402 (-11.462) -1.383 (-8.606) Log(distance)
1925-1933 -1.330 (-14.479) -1.340 (-13.481) -1.306 (-10.156) 1885-1913 -0.220 (-3.231) -0.229 (-3.013) -0.206 (-1.306) Log(distance)_median
1925-1933 -0.158 (-3.549) -0.160 (-3.287) -0.237 (-1.765)
Var. Imp/ Exp Dummies Yes Yes Yes
Time/ comm./ transport Yes Yes Yes
Adj R2 (LR-index) 0.530 (0.767) 0.536 (0.768) 0.560 (0.768)
No. of Obs. 18422 15162 10752
Map 1: navigable waterways across Germany in 1893 (Source: IEG Maps, A. Kunz)
Map 2: the European Railway Network in 1901 (source: J. W. Redway, Natural Advanced Geography, 1901)
Map 3: Consolidated Trade Districts for German Trade Flows on Railways and Waterways, 1883-1913
Map 4: Consolidated Trade Districts for German Trade Flows on Railways and Waterways, 1924-1933
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