Teorema de Bayes

6.4 Age at first school enrolment

In South Africa, children have a legal window of two years during which to start their schooling. It is possible that the point during this window at which children begin their formal schooling relates to the level of interest or commitment that parents feel towards their child‘s schooling, with more committed parents enrolling children earlier. By contrast, it may also relate to a parent‘s ability to fulfil care-giving responsibilities, in which case parents with fewer resources may be more likely to pursue the earliest possible enrolment of their children to reduce their care-giving burden. It may also relate to different enrolment and application policies applied in different schools, with more selective schools preferring to enrol older and more independent children. It is therefore conceivable that the distance a child travels to school is connected to their age at first school enrolment, although the expected direction of this relationship is not evident.

154 6.4.1 1997

Straight-line distance

Table 6.13 and Figure 6.5 show that children who start school at a later age travel significantly further than those who start at an earlier age (Wilcoxon rank-sum test; Pr= 0.0004).

Number of children

Mean distance to school

Standard deviation

25^th percentile distance

50^th percentile distance

75^th percentile distance Earlier

starters

646 4.704km 9.216km 0.449km 0.880km 4.569km Later

starters

557 6.482km 9.866km 0.498km 1.221km 9.044km Table 6.13: 1997 distance from home to school, by age at first enrollment

Figure 6.5: Kernel density plot of 1997 distance from home to school, by age at first school enrolment

Census geography

Although there was no relationship between starting school late and travelling between SALs or MNs for schooling, children who started school early were

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significantly more likely to school within their residential SP (χ²(1)=10.8425;

Pr=0.001), as well as in their residential MP (χ²(1)=9.8651; Pr=0.002).

Nearest school

There was no significant relationship between age at first enrolment and whether or not a child attended their closest grade-appropriate school, regardless of whether independent schools are included or excluded.

6.4.2 2003

Straight-line distance

In 2003, although late starters still travel further on average than early starters, this difference is no longer statistically significant (Wilcoxon rank-sum test).

Additionally, although the distance for the 75^th percentile of late starters is still substantially higher than for early starters, at the 25^th and 50^th percentile, the early starters are actually travelling further. The distribution for late starters is therefore wider, but slightly flatter, than that for early starters (see Table 6.14 and Figure 6.6 below). One potential explanation for this change over time is that by 2003, more of the children who started school early are enrolled in high school, and that this requires them to travel somewhat further. This hypothesis is explored in the next section of this chapter, on the relationship between schooling phase in 2003 and mobility behaviours.

Number Table 6.14: 2003 distance from home to school, by age at first enrolment

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Figure 6.6: Kernel density plot of 2003 distance from home to school by age at first school enrolment

Census geography analysis

By 2003, there is no longer any evidence for differential mobility at any level of census geography on the basis of whether a child started school early or late.

Nearest school

There is a weakly significant relationship between whether a child starts school late, and whether he or she attends his or her nearest grade-appropriate school in 2003, but only when both public and independent schools are considered (χ²(1)= 2.9904, Pr = 0.084), with children starting late being less likely to be attending their nearest school in 2003. When only public schools are considered, there is no significant relationship.

6.4.3 Age at first enrolment and mobility discussion

In 1997, there is a relationship between mobility and whether a child starts school earlier or later, with children starting later being more likely to travel

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further. By 2003, this relationship has however largely disappeared. This may relate to the fact that a proportion of those who started school early have begun attending secondary schools, while those who started late are almost all still in primary schools. The relationship between mobility and schooling phase is explored further in the next section of this chapter.

There is no clear and obvious explanation for why, in 1997, children who started school late are likely to have a greater distance between their homes and their schools. It may be the case that parents who plan to send their children to schools further afield, necessitating independent travel, as well as in many cases the ability to adapt to a different cultural environment, are waiting until children are slightly older before enrolling them in school. It may also relate to enrolment practices at more advantaged schools, were children are in some instances required to take entrance tests or undergo interviews. A third potential explanation is that less affluent parents, who are not able to send children to schools far from home, may also not be able to afford pre-school or child care for their children, and therefore prefer to send them to school as early as possible. More affluent parents, by contrast, may be less pressed to enrol children in primary school, preferring to ensure that children are genuinely school-ready.