3. Descripción conjunta de varias variables
4.3 Probabilidad condicionada
4.3.3 Teorema de Bayes
At the beginning of this chapter, the crisis of rural decline was identified, and it was explained that the origin of developing rural tourism research was based on alleviating this rural crisis. Meanwhile, unexpected or unwanted consequences have affected the destinations because of tourism development. Research on the impacts of tourism is often considered within a tripartite framework consisting of an economic impact domain, an environmental impact domain, and a social and cultural (or socio-cultural) impact domain (Verbole, 1997; Hall, 2003). In the following paragraphs, a review of the literature explains the benefits of attracting tourism in declining rural areas. In addition, the negative impacts brought by tourism are also reviewed.
The benefit from tourism development from an economic perspective has received the most attention from policy makers and is widely discussed in the literature (Shaw & Williams, 2002; Hall et al., 2003). Economic impacts are defined as „associated with the monetary costs and benefits that result from the development and use of tourist facilities and services (Mathieson & Wall, 1982, cited in Verbole, 1997, p.200).‟ This definition implies that tourism is expected to sustain and create incomes and jobs, and to diversify the rural economy and to revitalise the local economy. Furthermore, it can foster local infrastructure and other development in order to improve the quality of rural
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life. Concerns about the economic aspect mainly focus on the inequality of benefit distribution between the investors and the local community and the effectiveness of alleviation of poverty (Murphy, 1985; van der Stoep, 2000; Kiss, 2004; Simpson, 2008)
Socio-cultural impacts are seen as „associated with the ways in which tourism contributes to the changes in value systems, collective behaviour, family relationships, and collective lifestyles (Mathieson & Wall, 1982, cited in Verbole, 1997, p.200).‟ The positive impacts on socio-cultural perspectives are perceived in terms of opening up the possibility of interaction with other places and reducing the social isolation of the remote rural locations (Hall et al., 2003a). For example, cultural effects on tourism destinations could have the potential for dissolving kinship patterns or abandoning traditional resource- use strategies and be associated with the idea that these resources can be replaced with imports. This will lead to a loss of local authenticity (Gossling, 2003; McMinn, 1997).
Environmental impacts are „associated with the ways in which tourism contributes to alterations in both the natural and the man-made environment (Mathieson & Wall, 1982, cited in Verbole, 1997, p.200)‟. Through direct expenditures and tax revenues, natural environment and cultural preservation/ conservation can benefit from tourism and also the conservation
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of the natural and cultural features is expected (Shaw & Williams, 2002). In terms of negative impacts, it includes track formation, soil loss and/or compaction, an increase in fire risk, littering and water pollution (Sun & Walsh, 1998). Take an example from a empirical study by Madan & Rawat (2000, p.251) in Mussoorie, a town in the Himalayas, which found that there were many undesirable impacts from tourism development, such as problems of illegal construction, unplanned growth, excessive garbage, encroachment on the forest, sanitation and sewage problems, water scarcity, overcrowded roads, resultant traffic jams and vehicular pollution, and as well as urbanization. Besides the physical effects, it also could cause negative biological effects, such as causing damage to vegetation, and spreading plant disease (Sun & Walsh, 1998).
Table 2.3 is a brief review of the benefits and drawbacks of rural tourism development, as seen by Cannon (1994). This table highlights many of the potential benefits and drawbacks of tourism on rural areas. Cannon (1994) points out that these impacts are locally different. This means that the policy and decision makers should consider the unique characteristics of the locality when decisions are made, and this point will be further discussed in the next chapter. The co-existence of positive and negative impacts suggests that tourism is not a panacea for all rural problems. A sensible approach to the development and management of tourism is required. This raises the
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importance of applying the concept of sustainable development into tourism research (Lane, 1994; Verbole, 1997; Butler, 1998, Long & Lane, 2000).
Table 2.3 The Pros and Cons of Rural Tourism Development
Economic costs Economic benefits Rural tourism:
Incurs developmental and marketing costs. Involves risk of the operator and community. Places demands on public services.
May only give part-time employment. Is an image industry and is therefore very sensitive to the macro environmental
conditions and forces outside direct community control.
May increase cost of living for community residents because of inflation of property values and good and services costs.
Brings more money, particularly foreign currency, to the economy.
Creates jobs and increases family and community income.
Helps to diversify and stabilize the rural economy.
Provides broader business base for the community and creates an opportunity for attracting other businesses and small industries.
Provides the opportunity for innovation and creativity.
Provides the support for existing businesses and services.
Helps to develop local craft and trade. Social costs Social benefits
Rural tourism may cause: Rural tourism: The introduction of conflicting ideas and styles
into the community. The increase of crime.
Overcrowding and congestion.
Infringement on privacy in households and in the sharing of important community resources with outsiders.
Institutional, community and family jealousies, as all may not share the benefit equally.
Fosters a pride of place and sense of place. Helps to build up a community infrastructure. Provides the opportunities for cultural
exchange.
Promotes a team community spirit particularly through the development of cultural and entertainment activities. Creates conditions for safeguarding and enhancing local cultural identities. Environmental cost Environmental benefits
Rural tourism Rural tourism: May downgrade the quality of natural and
historic areas through increased tourism development and tourist behaviour. May increase noise and litter pollution.
Can be a key factor in revitalizing the natural, cultural and historical resources of a rural region.
Promotes and encourage village renewal and a cleaner countryside.
Can foster the preservation and conservation of worthwhile resources.
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Lane (1994, p.19) stressed the importance of adopting the concept of sustainable development into rural tourism because of six reasons. First, „tourism should be managed to minimise its harmful impacts while maximising its benefits‟; second, the physical environments of rural areas are fragile, and a sustainable approach must be taken; third, the improvement of transportation results in easy access to rural areas. In this case, the management of the carrying capacity and regulating access might be a solution; next, tensions between the development of rural areas and the conservation of the environment may occur; a sustainable approach is considered as a potential means to reconcile the tensions; fifth, tourism can introduce new investment, employment and businesses into rural areas, and, finally, he emphasizes that rurality per se is unique; therefore, acknowledging and preserving this unique rural characteristic is essential (p.19).
In respect of the concept of sustainability, tourism research has many interpretations of the term sustainable tourism. This mainly includes the focus on tourism as an industry and sustaining development of the destinations. Before clarifying these two perspectives, it is essential to understand the concept of sustainable development.
The concept of „sustainability‟ emerged in the 1980s, with the recognition of increasing environmental problems and the depletion of the natural resources,
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hoping through practical movements and actions to reduce the degradation of earth‟s environment. In 1972, the declaration of the United Nations Conference on the Human Environment was announced by The United Nations Conference on the Human Environment in Stockholm, „having considered the need for a common outlook and for common principles to inspire and guide the peoples of the world in the preservation and enhancement of the human environment‟ (UNEP, 1972). In 1987, the publication of the Brundtland Commissions‟ report, Our Common Future, defined sustainable development as „development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs‟ (WCED, 1987, p.43). This definition is widely accepted in research and development programmes.
As previously mentioned, the concept of sustainable tourism (ST) emerged from the concept of sustainable development. Numerous versions of explanations of ST which have been provided by commentators, and the concept and policy implementation of ST still essentially follow the Brundtland Commissions‟ report (McMinn, 1997; Cooper, 2005; Saarinen, 2006). As the definition provided by UNWTO indicates (1993):
„Sustainable tourism development meets the need of present tourists and host regions while protecting and enhancing opportunity for the
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future (UNWTO 1993: p7, cited in Butler, 1999, p.10 and Cooper, 2005, p.264).‟
UNWTO (2004) provide a further description of the requirements of this concept:
1) Make optimal use of environmental resources that constitute a key element in tourism development, maintaining essential ecological processes and helping to conserve natural heritage and biodiversity.
2) Respect the socio-cultural authenticity of host communities, conserve their built and living cultural heritage and traditional values, and contribute to inter-cultural understanding and tolerance.
3) Ensure viable, long-term economic operations, providing socio- economic benefits to all stakeholders that are fairly distributed, including stable employment and income-earning opportunities and social services to host communities, and contributing to poverty alleviation (UNWTO, 2004).
UNWTO (2004) has expanded the scope of „sustainability‟, in which the concept of ST is broader than just a tourism-centric concern. This concept of ST has been accepted in terms of sustainable development in tourism (Butler, 1999; Hall, et al., 2003; Ko, 2005; Saarinen, 2006). This has not only recognised that the use of environmental resources of the destination „constitutes the rock foundations of tourism‟ (McMinn, 1997, p138), but also acknowledges the
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importance of concerns from the ethical perspective of the destination and the need for socio-cultural authenticity whilst promoting tourism.
This broader concept of ST is adopted in this research. In this respect, the research seeks an understanding of how and in what ways tourism can contribute to enhance the sustainability of the rural tourism industry as well as rural development. Further discussions regarding what sustainable tourism development involves is an aim for the literature review in the next chapter, and the investigation, in terms of the research framework designed by the author as well as further details of the research questions will be discussed in chapter 4.
Whilst this section emphasises the notion of sustainable tourism, the existence of its criticism about it has to be acknowledged. Several articles argue that sustainable development might be wishful thinking and point out that the nature of tourism could by its very nature be unsustainable (Butler, 1998; Hall et al., 2003; Wheeller, 2004 & 2005)
Firstly, from the point of view of the tourists, tourism is expected to provide entertainment. As the Encyclopedia of Tourism defines rural tourism as using the countryside as a resource, with people visiting in and having enjoyment of it (see page 48 of this chapter). Wheeller (2004) argues that the true motivation of tourism is the same as anything else in the world which is
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„driven largely by avarice, greed, self-interest (p.471).‟ Bringing these views together, tourism is mainly about enjoyment rather than a wider environmental concern. Consequently, relying on the host community and the environment in order to achieve the goal of sustainable tourism or ecotourism seems less realistic.
On the other hand, from the point of view of the host community, a more sustainable form of tourism expects them to provide an authentic rural experience and hospitality to people who visit the countryside. A survey undertaken by Tucker (2003) showed that many of the hosts prefer that guests stay one day only, because the longer they stay, the more blurred their relationship became: for example, when they developed friendships it became hard to charge for drinks (Tucker, 2003, p. 87). For both tourists and hosts, economic gain and pleasure are the main motivation for tourism.
These examples of human behaviour demonstrate that tourism is inherently unsustainable. Additionally, the negative impacts that tourism might bring provide a warning, that when tourism is promoted in rural areas in order to solve rural problems, no-one can guarantee it will not cause other problems or that it will be sustainable.
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