Territorio kandozi y el sitio Ramsar “Abanico del Pastaza”: sus implicaciones

27.4 and 27.5; 27.7 and 28.0 and 28.6 and 28.5 per cent respectively for

males and females under series A 2 , A3, Bl, C2 and C3.

The proportion of the male population aged 30-44 years declines slightly

only under series A3. Under series A2, Bl, C2 and C3 the proportion of this

sex-age group increases in 2001. The increment ranges between 1.3 and 4.8

per cent. The female population of the same age group increases from 17.7

per cent in 1971 to 20.0; 18.8; 21.3; 22.9 and 21.6 per cent under series

A2, A3, Bl, C2 and C3.

The proportion of the older age segment continues to increase rapidly

during the projection periods as a result of a decline in mortality due to

better health conditions and better standards of living.

Those expected trends suggest that the age structure of the Jakarta

population would undergo a substantive and consistent transformation in the

next thirty years.

6.4. The Implications of the Population Projection.

This section will highlight some of the socio-economic implications

of possible trends in population growth as indicated by the population

projections. Three subjects will be discussed in this section,i.e. school

age population, working age population and the dependency ratio.

6.4.1. The School Age Population.

As mentioned previously, the school system in Indonesia consists of

a kindergarten (2years), primary school (6 years), junior high school (3 years),

senior high school (3 years) and university level of education. The school

age population in this study is defined as persons 6 years of age and over who

are either required by law or are eligible to attend schools at a certain

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pre-school age population, primary-school age population and the secondary-

school age population.

(1). Pre-school Age Population.

For the purpose of the following discussion we define pre-school

age population as persons 0-5 years of age. The pre-school age population

is expected to increase in size as follows:

Base (pre-school) population, 1971 : 943 (thousand)

Population (in thousand) ______Percent change_

1986 2ÖÖI l97l-86"l986-2Ööri971-2ÖÖI number % number % Series A2 1632.3 (17.8) 2310.5 (14.8) 73.1 41.5 145.0 Series A3 1575.4 (17.9) 2032.0 (14.9) 67.1 29.0 115.5 Series B 1 1465.6 (16.6) 1546.9 (11.6) 55.4 5.5 64.0 Series C2 1422.9 (16.0) 1323.5 ( 9.7) 50.8 -7.0 40.3 Series C3 1373.0 (16.0) 1159.1 ( 9.8) 45.6 -15.6 22.9

The size of the pre-school age population in 2001 could not be reduced to

anything smaller than 1.1 million, even under the extreme condition, where

fertility would decline very rapidly accompanied by a decline in net migration

(see Appendix D, Table D.12). The proportion of pre-school age in the total

population, however, would decrease from 21 per cent in 1971 to between

16.0 and 17.8 per cent in 1986 and between 9.7 and 14.8 per cent in 2001.

The impact of this rapidly growing population will be felt especially by the

health, social and educational resources of the city. The effect will be

felt even more in the opposite extreme condition, where fertility would

decline slowly accompanied by an increase in net migration. Special attention

therefore, should be paid, in terms of providing better and sufficient child

health care, nurseries and kindergartens.

(2). The Primary-school Age Population.

The primary-school age population in this study is defined as

persons aged 6-12 years. The age limit employed here conforms with the

115

of 6 years for a 6 year period. Thereafter a child is eligible to take

the final examination of the primary school. The primary school population,

according to the projections will be as follows:

Base (primary-school) population, 1971 : 821.9 (thousand)

Population (in thousand)_ _ ____Percent change_

1986 2001 1971-86 1971-2001 number % number % 1986-2001 Series A2 1535.2 (16.8) 2356.5 (15.1) 86.8 53.5 186.7 Series A3 1514.9 (17.2) 2129.1 (15.6) 84.3 40.5 159.0 Series B1 1490.0 (16.9) 1832.5 (13.7) 81.3 23.0 123.0 Series C2 1482.3 (16.6) 1713.2 (12.6) 80.4 15.6 108.4 Series C3 1462.4 07.1) 1539.9 (13.0) 77.9 5.3 87.4

The projected primary-school age population can be seen in Appendix D,

Table D . 12.

The primary-school age attendance "rate for both sexes in 1971 was

59.7 per cent (see Chapter 2). If this rate remains constant from 1971 to

2001, the number of children who would be able to attend primary school

would increase from 512 thousand in 1971 to 1407 thousand in 2001 under

series A2. It implies that 950 thousand children would not be able to

attend primary school, an increase of 1.8 times from 1971. It should be

noted, however, that President Suharto in the 1978 People Council Assembly

declared that a compulsory education system will be executed from 1901.

This implies that the primary school attendance rate, hopefully, would

increase from 1981 upward. Assuming that this rate would increase by 80

per cent in 2001 with a pupil-teacher ratio of 4 2 ^ , Jakarta in 2001 would

need about 45 thousand primary school teachers under series A2 or 29 thousand

teachers under series C3. The average of the ratio of pupils per institution

during 1963-75 was 344.2 (Census and Statistical Office,Jakarta, 1976 :67).

In order to maintain this ratio, with the above school attendance assumption

1). The average pupil-teacher ratio during 1963-75 was 42.44 children per teacher (Census and Statistical Office, Jakarta,1976:1976 :67) .

116

(80 per cent), Jakarta in 2001 would need between 5.5 and 3. 6 thousand

primary schools under series A2 and C3 respectively. In 1975 there were

1838 primary schools in Jakarta (Census and Statistical Office»Jakarta,

1976:67). Another 1.8 to 3.7 thousand primary schools should be built

within the next 25 years.

(3). The Secondary-school Age Population.

This age group is defined as persons 13-18 years of age.

The secondary-school age population is expected to increase as follows:

Base (secondary-school) population,1971: 613.2 (thousand)

_?2Byla!:i2D_.(il3_thousand^ _

____ E2I2222_2^}22i2_

1986 2001 1971-86 1971-2001 number % number % 1986-2001 Series A2 1069.8 (11.7) 1928.7 (12.4) 74.5 80.3 214.5 Series A3 1042.5 (11.8) 1639.3 (12.0) 70.0 57.2 167.3 Series B 1 1061.0 (12.0) 1540. 1 (11.5) 73.0 45.2 151.2 Series C2 1073.4 (12.1) 1522.2 (11.2) 75.0 41.8 148.2 Series C3 1050.8 (12.3) 1155.8 ( 9.8) 71.4 10.0 88.5

The percentage of this age group to the total population is expected to

decline from 13.6 per cent in 1971 to between 11.7 and 12.3 per cent in 1986

and to between 9.8 and 12.4 per cent in 2001.

In 1971, the school attendance rate of this age group was 43.2

per cent (see Chapter 2) for both sexes. Let us assume that the school

attendance rate of this age group would increase by 70 per cent in 2001.

Under series A 2 , then, the expected number of children in secondary school

by 2001 will be 1350 thousand. The average pupil-teacher ratio during

1968-75 was 16.7 children per teacher and the average of the ratio of

students per institution was 278.7 (Census and Statistical Office»Jakarta,

1976:71-74). Suppose we use these ratios for 2001, then Jakarta in 2001

would need about 81 thousand secondary school teachers and about 5 thousand

secondary schools under series A2. On the other hand, with the same school

attendance, pupil-teacher ratio and students per institution assumptions,

Jakarta would need 48 thousand secondary school teachers and 3 thousand

117

hard to achieve, viewed in the light of available facilities and other

resources to be spent on it. In the light of these conditions, therefore,

a large proportion of children in the 13-18 age group will undoubtedly have

to miss secondary education.

6.4.2. Working Age Population.

Every country in the world undoubtedly recognizes the need for a

man power program in an effort to raise the nation's economic conditions.

Therefore, one of the social and moral obligations of a responsible government

is to provide productive employment for adults in the working ages. If the

government fails to do this it creates social and economic problems in the

society.

In 1971 census Jakarta’s working age population (persons aged

r

15-64 years) was enumerated as 2,516,882 whereas 1,225,278 persons (51.3

per cent) were in the economically active group. The male population of the

same group was 1,273,690 persons whereas only 1,001,776 males (78.7 per cent)

were economically active. Among the 1,243,192 female population aged 15-64

years, only 289,828 females (23.3 per cent) were in the economically active

group (B.P.S .,1974,Series E,No.09:150-154). The working age population of

Jakarta is expected to double in 1986 and triple before reaching 2001 under

any series of assumption. The working age population would increase to

9774, 8414, 8929, 9523 and 8172 thousand under series A2, A3, Bl, C2 and C3

respectively (Appendix D,Table D.13).

The 1971 census also reveals that 5.5 per cent of total Jakarta’s

population aged 10 years and over was enumerated as unemployed (see Chapter 2).

According to the Urban Unemployment Survey conducted in three large cities in

Java in 1972 (Jakarta, Surabaya and Bandung), there is an indication that the

proportion of unemployed among Jakarta's economically active population was

118

population, Jakarta in 2001 is expected to feed at least half a million

unemployed inhabitants. The job requirements put more and more pressure

on the employment market. Also there are instances in which an increase in the

number of crimes has been attributed to the demoralizing effects of

unemployment. Therefore, it is of great importance to the development

planners, politicians and research workers to pay special attention to

this matter.

6.4.3. Dependency Ratio.

The 1961 and 1971 censuses indicate that the total dependency

ratios for Jakarta was 71.2 and 80.6 respectively (see Chapter 2).

According to the projections, although the population would increase

rapidly, the proportion of the population which is non-productive (under

15 years of age and 65 years and over) as compared to the productive

population (15-64 years of age) will be pressed down to between 43 and 62

per cent. Such a condition could lighten up the retardation of economic

advancement. The projections indicate a decline in the total dependency

ratios to 59.9, 62.3, 49.8, 43.2 and 45 in 2001 under series A2, A3, Bl,

C2 and C3 respectively (see Table 38).

TABLE 38

In document ANTROPOLOGÍA DE UN DERECHO (página 161-166)